Top four fantasy mismatches in 2025 divisional round

On By Littum

No QB matchup is juicier than this one Sunday drinks: a battle between MVP candidates Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. And the data shows that Jackson will live up to the hype. Jackson threw for 2,989 yards and boasts a 23:3 TD to INT ratio in zone coverage this season while leading the league in passer rating (119.1) and yards per carry. trials (9.5), per Next generation statistics. His 119.1 passer rating against zone coverage is the highest of any QB since 2018. Meanwhile, the Bills use zone coverage at the NFL’s eighth-highest rate, surrendering 17 passing TDs and a 93.8 average passer rating to opposing QBs.

Jackson posted 210 scrimmage yards and three TDs in a 25-point performance Week 4 wins over Buffalo. That night, none of Jackson’s 18 pass attempts came via tight end throws (< 1 yard separation). Instead, Baltimore's speedy WRs ran free and Jackson found them on 12 of 13 passes when they were open (3+ yards separation). In a potential shootout, Jackson will likely look to push the ball deep — a muscle the Ravens QB has been flexing all season. Jackson's 27 TD passes and 57.8% completion percentage on downfield passes (10+ air yards) are both NFL-highs. Although WR Zay Flowers is a no-go on Sunday, Jackson has proven he can spread the wealth. In Week 4, none of Jackson's four downfield completions went to Flowers. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Jackson’s passing performance against the Bills in Week 4.)

DFS Outlook (from Okada)

DraftKing’s Price: $7,800

If you’re not interested in the “discount” route at QB, you might as well go with fantasy’s top scorer in Lamar Jackson. The Ravens QB has averaged a whopping 25.2 fantasy points per game. game, including his 23 points in the Wild Card round, and hasn’t gone below 20 points in any of his last seven games. Amazingly, Jackson has more games this year with 30-plus fantasy points (four) than he has games with fewer than 20 (three). The MVP duel with Josh Allen and the Bills is billed as an extremely close one with a ton of projected points, and if it truly turns into a shootout, expect the Ravens QB to lead the charge.