Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson: The greatest divisional playoff game ever

CNN
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The matchup every NFL fan has been waiting for is here: Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson. These two quarterbacks have been neck-and-neck for the league MVP title for months now.

Now, Allen’s Buffalo Bills will host Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens in what I would argue is statistically the greatest quarterback match-up in division playoff history.

The biggest of what after this weekend will be 229 divisional playoff games in the Super Bowl era.

Football is strange because no state is the be all and end all. Still, it’s pretty clear in the all-inclusive stats that Allen and Jackson are really good.

Take for example adjusted net yards per pass attempt. This seeks to measure how many yards a quarterback and touchdowns a quarterback throws for, as well as adjust it for how many sacks and interceptions they throw.

Jackson was first in the NFL at 9.4 and Allen was third at 8.0 yards. Allen threw for fewer yards and touchdowns than Jackson, but he took fewer sacks. Jackson threw two fewer interceptions, though both were well below the league average.

I went back through record books to see other division games where both starting quarterbacks had 8.0 or better adjusted net yards per carry. pass attempts in the regular season leading up to the playoffs.

There were only two: the 2014 NFC divisional playoff between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Packers and the 2019 AFC divisional playoff between the Ravens (and Jackson) and the Tennessee Titans.

Of course, one of the things that makes Allen and Jackson so special is that they can run the ball with authority. Allen runs like a back and picks up a ton of first downs and touchdowns. Jackson runs for yards.

Both men have over 500 yards rushing and at least four rushing touchdowns. Allen is second in the league in rushing touchdowns, while Jackson leads the league in rushing yards.

Again I decided to look back and see how many divisional playoff games featured two starting quarterbacks who rushed for at least 500 yards and 4 touchdowns during that year’s regular season.

There were only three: the 2013 NFC divisional playoff between the Carolina Panthers and the San Francisco 49ers, the 2014 NFC divisional playoff between the Panthers and the Seattle Seahawks, and the 2022 NFC divisional playoff between the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles.

In other words, the matchup between Allen and Jackson will mark the first time in an AFC divisional playoff game that both teams’ starting quarterbacks have rushed for at least 500 yards and 4 touchdowns in the regular season.

What you’ll notice is that none of these plays with elite rushing quarterbacks are the same as plays with elite passing quarterbacks.

Combining passing and rushing stats for a quarterback is not easy. Indeed, as I noted at the outset, combining all passing statistics into one metric is a fraught exercise.

Still, we can make an attempt. One way to do it is through Pro-Football Reference’s approximate value metric.

Allen’s approximate value this year is currently a 20. Jackson’s is slightly higher at a 21. Both of these are elite and are the best and second best in the league.

What is amazing is that this marks only time in the division’s playoff history that both teams’ starting quarterbacks have approximate values ​​of at least 20.

By that metric, this weekend’s game is the greatest matchup of starting quarterbacks in a divisional round playoff game ever.

To be clear, this isn’t the only state looking to combine rushing and passing into one metric. You can use ESPN’s QBR or expected points added (EPA) above replacement.

For example, Allen is slightly ahead of Jackson in ESPN’s QBR, so those stats may vary slightly.

When the great Neil Paine ran the stats, he found the only divisional round playoff with a better combined EPA above replacement for the starting quarterbacks was the 2013 matchup between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers.

When arguing over whether this weekend’s matchup is the greatest or second greatest in divisional playoff history, you know it’s historic.

And because both quarterbacks are so good, this game is historic in itself. Paine figured it out this is the best divisional playoff game in 50 years when you consider how good the teams were and how tough their schedules were in the regular season.

My hope as a Bills fan is that it is a historically good game for the blue and red. Otherwise, don’t expect me to show up for work on Monday.