Winter Storm Enzo A rare snow and ice threat as far south as the Gulf Coast

Winter storm Enzo will bring a swath of snow and ice to the south early this week, creating hazardous travel conditions, including in areas near the Gulf Coast where winter weather is rare.

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Winter storm warnings have been issued

The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings across the South from central and eastern Texas to parts of Georgia. Cities in these warnings include Houston, New Orleans, Tallahassee and parts of the Atlanta metro area.

These warnings mean snow, ice and wind could combine to make conditions dangerous early this week. Roads may be covered in snow and/or ice and power outages are possible.

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Here’s a daily look at the upcoming winter storm and some additional caveats to the forecast:

Monday evening’s forecast

• The first collision of cold and moisture is likely to occur over Texas and Louisiana late Monday.
• A zone of snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely, especially near and south of Interstate 20 to the Gulf Coast.
• Many major Texas cities will see the threat of snow and/or ice, including Houston, San Antonio, Austin and Corpus Christi.
• The northern extent of this wintry weather is the most uncertain part of the forecast, so expect changes.
• There is some ice threat for parts of South Texas from Galveston to the Rio Grande Valley.

Tuesday’s weather forecast

• Moderate to major impacts are possible from eastern Texas to southern Mississippi, including Houston and New Orleans. Closures, hazardous travel, power and other infrastructure disruptions are possible.
• Snow and ice will spread further east along the Gulf Coast into parts of Alabama and Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and the Carolinas through Tuesday evening.
• For now, precipitation will fall as snow along and north of Interstate 10 and as a wintry mix along and south of Interstate 10.
• Precipitation in the Florida panhandle is expected to begin Tuesday as normal rain. During the evening hours, this rain may turn to freezing rain or sleet as temperatures cool.
• Wind gusts above 30 mph are possible near the Gulf Coast. This can blow snow around and lead to broken branches.
• The northern and eastern extent of this storm’s moisture and thus snow and ice is highly uncertain. This includes the Atlanta metro area, where hazardous travel is possible Tuesday depending on how far north this storm’s snowfall spreads toward Interstate 20.

Much of this storm will be over by Wednesday morning, but some snow and ice may linger in Northeast Florida and the coastal Carolinas.

Snowfall forecast

Below is a look at the latest snowfall forecast, but keep in mind that changes are likely due to the ongoing uncertainty in the forecast.

• At least a few inches of snow will accumulate from southeast Texas to Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. Where bands of heavier snowfall develop, we could see higher totals of up to half a foot, particularly in southern Louisiana and southeast Texas.
• Sneak accumulation is also possible in parts of Georgia and the eastern Carolinas.
• As noted earlier, the northern and eastern extent of any accumulations is highly uncertain, including around Atlanta, the rest of Georgia and the Carolinas. But even small amounts can create dangerous travel conditions.
• There is also a zone from the Florida panhandle to coastal South Carolina, and also southern Texas, that can pick up enough ice to cause tree branches to bend and roads to become slippery.

Winterry Mess Via Common Tricky Setup

The setup for this snow and ice threat is common as we slide through the end of January and into the second half of winter.

Widespread Arctic air is taking over much of the central and eastern United States, including well into the Deep South. This source of fresh, cold air is the first ingredient needed to get snow and ice along the Gulf Coast.

(MORE: Here’s what you need to know about snow and ice in the South)

At the same time, a weak low pressure wave over the Gulf of Mexico will help lift moisture north into the region, resulting in snow and ice.

Jonathan Belles has been a graphic meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also helps with the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but he also enjoys covering severe weather and news and winter storms. He is a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.