Projecting the last 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win the Super Bowl with conference title game analysis

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for the seventh consecutive year. They are now just two wins away from the greatest accomplishment of the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in the way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.

In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will look to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Jeff Howe breaks down each of the two conference championship games before Athletics‘s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds to win the Super Bowl.

AFC

no. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. no. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)

The powers of the AFC would not budge this season as the Chiefs and Bills meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.

The Bills wrapped up the showdown on Sunday night with a thrilling 27-25 win against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outplayed fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a pair of rushing scores to help stave off Baltimore’s comeback bid.

The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they outshot the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outgaining them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team on the field.

The Chiefs, if you haven’t heard, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes quit.

It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t made a mistake and has accounted for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.

Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in the loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their last eight games. That will be a pivot against the Bills, who had three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11-of-19 games this season.

Mahomes hasn’t had much help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.

But he still has Travis Kelce, who just notched the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped significantly during the regular season, but Kelce is as good as ever in the playoffs. He has had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games – averaging 99.1 yards per carry. out over that stretch — so Kelce is as automatic as it gets. He has also led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.

And yet, the NFL’s modern dynasty will be tasked with asking one question all week: Can they stop Allen?

Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.

Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, a touchdown and an interception as the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a crucial fourth-and-2. It was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it could have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.

The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship in the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three straight wins over the previous four years.

• Chiefs’ chances to win the Super Bowl: 30.5%
• Bills’ chances to win the Super Bowl: 25.9%

NFC

no. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. no. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)

The NFC North carried the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.

The Eagles and Commanders will meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16 in Philadelphia. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.

The Eagles might want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points were the sixth-highest of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover game.

So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third round? Maybe that’s also a problem as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the previous win. It is a rare occasion where turnover has not made the difference in both results.

Still, the bosses won’t test that theory further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a pair of forced fumbles during a crucial second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.

Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense at an elite level during their pair of road wins in the playoffs. They have scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close the half, and have scored just once. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.

Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that has come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions after a Detroit – score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels constantly kept the ball moving when the Lions tried to make a run.

Daniels will have to be fantastic to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he will rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game hitting streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.

Hurts and the Eagles’ passing attack has been pedestrian since returning from the concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers AJ Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.

But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The top offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.

These teams have a postseason meeting with Washington taking their wild card game in 1990. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.

The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.

• Eagles’ chances to win the Super Bowl: 33.8%
• Commanders Chances to Win Super Bowl: 9.8%

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang/Getty Images)