Where will Tesla stock be in two years? Here’s what Goldman Sachs expects

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) may see its core EV business facing some challenges, but its high valuation reflects confidence in future game changers like robotaxi and its advanced FSD (full self-driving) software. Investors are betting on these ground-breaking initiatives, but how big will their impact be in the coming years?

Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney, an analyst ranked in the top 3% of Wall Street equity experts, expects the robotaxi business to begin commercial operations in the second half of 2026 and generate about $115 million in revenue in 2027, while being “relatively neutral ” in relation to consolidated EPS.

The forecast assumes that Tesla’s fleet will grow to 300 vehicles by the end of 2026 and 1,500 by the end of 2027. It also takes into account an increase in daily trips per vehicle from 15 to 20 between 2026 and 2027 and an average cost of just over $2.50 per mile in 2027.

Tesla has indicated it will launch the service in either Texas or California, with Delaney favoring Texas as the likely choice. Reports indicate ongoing discussions with Austin about self-driving technology, and Texas has less stringent permitting requirements compared to California.

Delaney believes Tesla will likely use remote assistance and geofencing to support the service — approaches similar to those used by current robotaxi operators such as Waymo, Baidu and Pony AI, although these methods are not part of Tesla’s consumer FSD vehicles .

“We believe that the use of remote assistance and a narrow geographic environment can help improve performance compared to Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) software on consumer vehicles,” the 5-star analyst continued.

That said, based on personal experience, crowdsourced data, and third-party reviews, Delaney notes some major recent improvements to V13 of the FSD software compared to V12. That, he says, reinforces his view that Tesla is “one of the leaders in autonomous technology.”

Specifically, crowdsourced data shows that the FSD V13 achieves approximately 400-450 miles between critical engagements, with 97% of drives completely avoiding such events. Tesla reckons the FSD V13 could eventually reach around 10,000 miles per hour. critical intervention. However, Delaney believes there are still “meaningful advances needed for FSD to become a situational product beyond the eyes.”

The analyst also believes that Tesla’s goal of making FSD safer than human drivers by the 2nd quarter of this year will not be met. Nevertheless, as its performance improves, the adoption and monetization of FSD may increase, resulting in a boost to auto gross margins by 2026/2027.

“We believe that the long-term FSD monetization potential will depend not only on technical progress, but the degree to which Tesla’s software is differentiated from other alternatives (and the degree of competition and typical industry business models in China may make monetization more difficult in that region ,” Delaney summed up.

On the bottom line, Delaney currently rates Tesla stock as neutral with a price target of $345, implying a 12-month decline of 16.5%. (To see Delaney’s track record, click here)

The Street’s consensus price target is even lower, at $329.63, indicating the stock may be overvalued by 23%. Overall, Tesla has a Hold consensus rating derived from a mix of 13 Buy, 12 Hold and 9 Sell. (See TSLA stock forecast)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.