UNC basketball vs Wake Forest: Score prediction, scouting report

On By Littum

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UNC basketball hasn’t won at Wake Forest in five years.

The Tar Heels (12-7, 5-2 ACC), who play the Demon Deacons (14-4, 6-1) in Winston-Salem on Tuesday (9 p.m., ESPN), are winless as an unranked team at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum in 14 years.

In a Tobacco Road Rivalry that started in 1911, UNC has won 70.5% of its games against Wake Forest, but the Deacs have won three straight home games against the Heels by an average margin of 15.3 points.

UNC’s four-game winning streak was snapped in a gut-wrenching loss to Stanford at the Smith Center, and Wake Forest looks to push its winning streak to six games. The Deacs are off to a 6-1 start in ACC play for the first time since Tim Duncan’s senior year in the 1996-97 season.

Here are some other things to know and a score prediction for the Tar Heels’ latest trip to Wake Forest.

UNC guard RJ Davis, Wake Forest guard Hunter Sallis in spotlight as leading scorer

It’s all about the Tuesday night shifts at Joel. UNC’s RJ Davis, the reigning ACC Player of the Year, dropped 36 points against Wake Forest last season at the Smith Center, and Wake Forest’s Hunter Sallis is arguably playing better than any guard in the ACC as the league’s second-leading scorer (19.5 ppg). game).

Davis hasn’t fared as well this season, averaging 17.3 points on 38.1% shooting, but he has averaged 22 points in five games against Wake Forest. With seven straight games of 20 or more points, Sallis is on a career-best scoring streak. Wake’s veteran has averaged 24.5 points on 58.8% shooting.

Ian Jackson, Tre’Von Spillers have been key to the recent success of the Tar Heels, Demon Deacons

UNC freshman guard Ian Jackson has scored 20 or more points in six of the last eight games, but he is coming off his first single-digit performance since mid-December. In UNC’s loss to Stanford, Jackson had six points on 1-of-8 shooting. If the Tar Heels are going to leave Winston-Salem with a win, Jackson will need more opportunities than he had against the Cardinal. The Tar Heels are 7-2 this season when Jackson attempts 10 or more shots and 4-5 when he doesn’t reach that number. UNC needs to keep finding ways to get the ball to the Bronx native.

Looking at Wake Forest, App State transfer Tre’Von Spillers has played a key role in helping the Deacs’ string of wins to start 2025. The 6-foot-7 forward has reached double figures in four of the last five games, including a pair of double-double performances. Given UNC’s inconsistency in the frontcourt, Spillers could be in line for a big night.

Defenses are better for UNC and Wake Forest, but which team will defend without making mistakes?

Wake Forest has been consistently good on defense this season, and UNC has improved its defense since the switch to ACC play. The team that does a better job of defending without making mistakes will likely be the one to win this week in Winston-Salem. In Wake Forest’s last three wins against the Tar Heels at Joel, the Deacs averaged 32 free throws and attempted 31 extra free throws combined in those three games.

UNC is averaging 22.8 free throw attempts per game. game this season, which is 45th nationally compared to Wake Forest’s 18.8 attempts (207th). But the Tar Heels have a harder time defending without committing fouls, sitting at 268th with seven suspensions and an average of 18 fouls per game. Wake is 133rd with one disqualification and an average of 16.4 fouls.

UNC vs Wake Forest score prediction

Wake Forest 76, UNC 70: The Demon Deacons have dominated the Tar Heels at Joel in recent years, but they have never won four straight against UNC at Joel. With a 9-0 record at home this season, including wins in their last three ACC home games by an average of 16 points, Hunter Sallis and the Deacs will get it done this week.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and NC State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Do you have questions regarding these teams? Send them to [email protected].