Why every Australian Open men’s semi-finalist can win the title

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  • Jake MichaelsJanuary 22, 2025, 6:56 PM ET

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      Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer. He has been with ESPN since 2013, covering everything from AFL to Formula 1, basketball to boxing and tennis, both in Australia and around the world.

MELBOURNE, Australia – and then there were four. Jannik Sinner. Alexander Zverev. Novak Djokovic. Ben Shelton.

After 11 days of nineteenth competition at Melbourne Park, just four men remain in contention for Australian Open glory. One of them is looking to defend their crown, two are seeking their Maiden Grand Slam title, and one, well, is just chasing more unmatched greatness.

Here’s why each semi-finalist can go on to lift the trophy:

Jannik Sinner (1)

No player in tennis has been more successful than Sinner in the last 12 months. In fact, in 2024 he put together one of the greatest years in the history of the sport, winning the Australian Open, the US Open and the ATP Finals, netting over $19 million in prize money and grabbing the world no. 1 ranking.

Sinner hasn’t quite reached Djokovic levels of dominance at Melbourne Park – who has? – but he is definitely in a similar direction. The 23-year-old has won 15 of his last 16 Australian Open matches, 10 of them without dropping a set. His recent hard-court record in the majors is equally impressive, having won each of his last 19 matches.

The Italian battled an illness and the heat in his fourth-round win over Holger Rune, but was back to his dominant best against Australian eighth seed Alex de Minaur, leapfrogging him and dropping just six games in one of the most-Side of quarter-finals we have ever witnessed.

“I feel like the disease is gone now,” declared Sinner after coasting into the final four. “I felt much, much better. I felt that today was a very good game from my side … the best game of the tournament.”

Sinner is hitting the ball as well as ever, refusing to make mistakes and committing the fewest unforced errors this two weeks of the semifinals. He forces his opponents to beat him and at this point no one is up for the challenge.

His path to the finals has also been far less daunting than those on the other side of the bracket. Sinner has yet to face a player who has played in a major semi-final, and it is possible that he could win the title without going through a single Grand Slam champion.

Sinner will start as a resounding favorite against Shelton, an opponent he has beaten the last four times they have played, winning nine straight sets. If he passes that test, it will either be Djokovic, the man he beat in last year’s Australian Open semi-final, or Zverev, who he beat in their only 2024 meeting in the Cincinnati final. This tournament is a sin to lose.

Alexander Zverev (2)

He may not have captured the elusive Grand Slam title, but Zverev has been knocking on the door for the better part of a decade. The German World No. 2 has played in 10 major semi-finals and was a runner-up at the US Open in 2020 and the French Open in 2024.

That effort at Roland Garros seven months ago was the highlight of a career-best season for Zverev, who won two Masters 1000 titles and tallied 69 wins for the year. He arrived at Melbourne Park in scintillating form and has managed to keep it rolling, looking just like the second best player in the world as he breezes through to the last four.

A date with Djokovic at the Australian Open is about as tough a tennis assignment as you can get, but Zverev knows he can beat him. He has won two of the last four meetings, including a semi-final win on hard court at the Tokyo Olympics. He is also the fresher of the two, having spent 11 hours and 58 minutes on court compared to Djokovic’s 14 hours and 37 minutes.

And if he is able to prevail over Djokovic, Zverev can take extreme confidence knowing that he has a winning head-to-head record against both Sinner and Shelton.

You get the feeling that it’s the serve that will determine how far Zverev can go. This fortnight Zverev is landing a ridiculous 71% of his first serves, easily the best strike of the four semi-finalists. He wins 78% of those points.

Against Djokovic, Zverev will need to continue to hit his spots and not let the greatest return leader of all time work his way into a rally. Djokovic has traded on the second serve this tournament and won 60% of points where his opponent does not land the first serve.

“I have set a goal that I want to achieve my dream of winning a Grand Slam and I am chasing it,” Zverev said after beating Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals. “I’m doing everything I can to be in another (Grand Slam final) on Sunday.”

Novak Djokovic (7)

No one in tennis history knows how to win the Australian Open better than Djokovic. A 10-time champion of the event, Djokovic has been beaten at Melbourne Park just five times in the last 15 years. He also has an ominous 20-1 record in semi-finals and finals at the Australian Open.

Despite not lifting a Grand Slam trophy in 2024, Djokovic continues to prove that at 37 he can still beat anyone on tour on any given day. Two of his most impressive wins have come against world no. 3 Carlos Alcaraz, first to win gold at the Paris Olympics last year and then again on Tuesday in an epic Australian Open quarter-final.

It was in the latter match that Djokovic suffered a leg injury. He went off court and took a medical timeout late in the first set against Alcaraz, returning with strain on his left thigh and appearing unable to move with his usual freedom.

Should we be worried? Well, yes and no. It certainly won’t help him lift the trophy, but he has proven in Australia on several occasions that he can go all the way despite battling injury. In 2021, Djokovic tore a muscle in his stomach. Then, in 2023, he suffered a 3 cm (1.18 in) hamstring tear. Neither injury could derail his title hopes.

“I’m taking it day by day. It’s really about my recovery. The extra day without a match comes at a good time,” Djokovic said after overcoming Alcaraz. “If I somehow manage to be physically good enough, I think mentally, emotionally, I’m as motivated as I can be.”

An 11th win in Australia would give Djokovic a 25th major title, breaking the tie he currently holds with Margaret Court for most singles Grand Slam titles. And at the age of 37 years, 8 months and three days, on January 26, he would also become the oldest man to win a major title.

Ben Shelton (21)

In many ways, Shelton is playing with house money when he faces Sinner on Friday afternoon. All attention will be on his opponent, the reigning champion and the two men contesting the other semi-final match, meaning he will have to deal with far less pressure and anticipation than when he reached the same stage at the US Open in 2023 Don’t underestimate how significant it can be.

Despite a relatively disappointing output at last year’s major, Shelton is a much improved and far more experienced player from this tournament at Flushing Meadows 18 months ago.

The 22-year-old American won in Houston, was a runner-up in Basel and scored two wins over top 10 players, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, in the second half of the 2024 season to push his ranking back inside the top 20. He beats the ball harder, makes fewer mistakes and plays with extreme confidence.

“I definitely win in different ways,” Shelton said after his quarterfinal triumph over Lorenzo Sonego. “When I played here in 2023, the US Open 2023, I felt that everything had to be perfect. I was red bandaged. I was at my limits. Lately, especially in the matches here, everything has not been perfect. I I have to to pick up the slack with everything in my game.

“For me, it’s the growth. I’ve worked every single day to become a more well-rounded player. If you only have one thing to rely on, you know, the gun misfires or the chamber is empty, you’re in trouble.”

In every game at Melbourne Park this fortnight, Shelton has been tested. In each he continues to pass with flying colors.

Shelton’s biggest weapon is his serve. He has clocked the fastest of the tournament at 232 km/h (144.2 km/h), has been broken just six times from 98 service games, lands 66% of his first serves and won 79% of those points. More often than not, his service game is over in the blink of an eye.

Oddsmakers will suggest Shelton is the least likely Final Four to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Sunday night, but write him off at your peril.