Trump and Putin signal they will have a phone call soon. What will they talk about?

As President Donald Trump appears to be fulfilling what he says is his goal of being known as a “peacemaker” by winding down the war in Ukraine, he has called for a direct line of communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin several times during the first days of his second. term — and said he would “really like to be able to meet” the Russian leader soon to “get that war over.”

“I think from what I’m hearing, Putin would like to see me. We’ll meet as soon as we can,” Trump said at the White House on Thursday.

The Kremlin said Putin was ready to hold a call with Trump and was only waiting for Washington to signal that Trump was also ready.

Both sides have indicated that a phone call is seen as a first step toward a more comprehensive, in-person meeting between the leaders — a format Putin has suggested he would prefer.

“It would be better for us to meet, based on today’s realities, to talk calmly about all the areas that are of interest to both the United States and Russia,” Putin said during a televised interview on Friday.

To break the silence

Any conversation between the two would mark the first time a sitting US president and Putin have spoken since the war in Ukraine began, although former President Joe Biden held phone calls with Putin several times in the run-up to Moscow’s invasion to urge Putin against it.

Communications between lower levels of government have continued throughout the war, and a source familiar with the situation told ABC News that working-level talks between U.S. and Russian diplomats continued at a normal clip after Trump’s inauguration.

Even before Trump re-entered the White House, his national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” that preparations were already underway for Putin and Trump to speak by phone “in the coming days and weeks”.

Trump also said he would take it further than a phone call, predicting he would meet with Putin “very soon” after his inauguration.

Putin has also appeared receptive to reopening the lines of communication with the White House, applauding Trump’s willingness to “restore direct contacts with Russia” earlier this week.

At times, Trump has been criticized for having what some describe as an overly cozy relationship with Putin.

In February 2022, Trump praised Putin’s strategy in Ukraine, calling the invasion “brilliant” and “savvy” during a radio interview.

At a summit with Putin held in Helsinki in 2018, Trump drew bipartisan criticism for saying he “didn’t see any reason to believe” that Russia interfered in the 2016 election, contrary to the results of the U.S. intelligence community.

Putin has also spoken highly of Trump, endorsing his baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him and agreeing with Trump’s statements that the war in Ukraine would never have happened if he was still in office.

Pressure tactics

Trump’s record of warm relations with Putin stands in stark contrast to his recent threats against Russia.

“Strike now and STOP this ridiculous war! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal’, and soon, I have no choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions on whatever is sold by Russia to the United States and various other participating countries,” Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier this week.

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, trade between the US and Russia plummeted to the lowest levels since the fall of the Soviet Union – rendering Trump’s threat of tariffs largely toothless.

But during a virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the president upped the ante, saying he would ask the OPEC cartel to “lower the cost of oil.”

“It will end the war. You can end the war,” he said.

The Biden administration, along with other governments in the G7, introduced a price cap of US$60 per barrel of Russian oil exports sent by sea in 2022 – a gamble to eat into Moscow’s profits while avoiding an energy crisis.

Moscow has been able to make a small profit on its reduced exports, but if OPEC were to increase production of oil, thereby reducing the cost of gas from other exporters, the Kremlin could lose its customers.

“If Trump can persuade OPEC to boost production at the expense of Russian output – a deal his predecessor was never able to strike – he could secure leverage over Moscow, maintain low world energy prices and retain US oil and gas companies and their customers happy,” said Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.

The Kremlin, for its part, has reacted coolly to Trump’s threats.

“We don’t see any particular new elements here,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday.

Other questions, other countries

Beyond Ukraine, both Trump and Putin have signaled their intention to resume talks on nuclear arms control.

Russia and the United States control 88% of the world’s nuclear warheads, but through the war in Ukraine, both countries have suspended their participation in the last major arms control treaty between the two powers, which is due to expire in 2026.

“Negotiating a new nuclear arms control agreement with the Kremlin would be difficult, and a new comprehensive framework agreement could require sustained negotiations over many months, if not years, to achieve,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. .

During Trump’s first term in office, he aimed but failed to forge a three-way non-proliferation agreement between the US, Russia and China — a perspective Trump has revisited during the early days of his second term.

When it comes to ending the war in Ukraine, Trump has also said he intends to bring China — Russia’s most powerful ally — into the fold, saying Beijing has “a great deal of power over the situation.”

What is not clear is how — or whether — Trump plans to include Ukraine in the negotiations.

In an interview with Fox News that aired Thursday, Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — saying “he’s not an angel” and that he “shouldn’t have allowed” the war with Russia to happen.

On Friday, Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, wrote on social media that Putin “is trying to push the idea of ​​negotiations with the United States.”

“But he has one condition: he wants to decide the fate of Europe – without Europe. And he seeks to talk about Ukraine – without Ukraine,” said Yermak, “This will not happen.