Chiefs vs. Bill’s odds, prediction, choice: AFC Championship Best Bid

This might as well be Super Bowl.

It’s Josh Allen and the Patrick Mahomes show as team # 4- (Bills) and No. 8- (Chiefs) ranked teams in defense-adjusted value above average (DVOA) face each other.

Kansas City is hosted and is favored with 2.5 points at Draftkings after sweeping Bills in the playoffs in recent seasons.

Mahomes is 3-0 against Allen in the playoffs despite being 1-3 in the regular season.

We could look at a “I own you” scenario, but let’s not forget, it took Peyton Manning until 2006 to blow up that story and best Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game.

Could we look at a similar result on Sunday night?

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Bills	+2.5 (-115)	+110	Over 48.5 (-110)
Chiefs	-2.5 (-105)	-130	Below 48.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Chief’s prediction

Chiefs know how to win and they know how to beat Bills.

Last season, Buffalo missed a matching field goal to end their season in the divisional round.

Buffalo has found his formula with running, running, running the ball with James Cook and Josh Allen while only throwing the ball when absolutely necessary.

Allen tried just seven passes in the first half against Ravens, who previously had the best race for NFL.

Kansas City won’t win this game if it can’t stop the race.

The same can be said of Travis Kelce if he does not have a strong game.

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Is betting on the NFL?

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He is a big part of Chiefs’ offensive and has scored a touchdown in each playoff match he has played against Bills.

Last year he went after five catches and 75 yards and two touchdowns in the 27-24 win.

The year before, he went after nine catches, 96 yards and a touchdown after exploding in the 2020 playoffs with 13 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns.

These Kelce props are critical when you bet on this game – if you think Chiefs wins, it’s because Kelce gets them there.

My betting model has the bills as three -point favorites, giving me a good lead in this game.

Back The Bills to win this directly and if you want a reverse correlation on a same-game parlay, then switch to Kelces props and add Bills Moneyline at a big price.

Game: Bills Moneyline (+110, Caesars) | SGP +600: Kelce over 67.5 receiving Yards + Kelce at any time Touchdown-Scorer (+120) + Bills Moneyline (Fanduel)

Why rely on New York Post betting

Erich Richter is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt, but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season, he has showcased massive profits on The Post in the market for player props over the past two seasons. While constantly betting Long Shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.