Iowa wrestling vs. Penn State Wrestling Dual Preview and Prediction

On February 1, 2025By Littum

The arguments are already performed around the Penn State Wrestling team 2024-25:

There is a case that must be made that it may be NCAA’s best college -Wrestling -team over time. It says something as the program comes out of a record setting season where it broke Iowa Wrestling’s NCAA Points Record set by Dan Gable’s Hawkeyes In 1997.

Iowa is looking to change the story with a win on Friday night. It won’t be easy even though Hawkeyes has lost three equal and five of the last six to Penn State. With 10 wrestlers, all ranked as No. 7 or higher for Nittany Lions, the path to a disturbance seems narrow for Iowa.

“(With) where we want to go, it’s big,” said Iowa Wrestling -trainer Tom Brands. “You are struggling with the best team in the country and it is a measuring stick.”

Here’s a look at some of the most important matchups to go Iowa’s way if Hawkeyes wants to draw one of the biggest disturbances in college double season Friday.

Iowa wrestlers noted first, placements from intermat.

125 pounds: Nr. 26 Joey Cruz (11-6) against No. 7 Luke Lilledahl (10-1)

On paper, this resembles a discrepancy. Cruz’s recent wrestling, however, tells another story, currently 3-0, since the calendar tilted to 2025. It includes a few top-20 wins over No. 18 Nicolar Rivera (8-2 decision) by Wisconsin and No. 16 Brendan McCrone ( 6-4 decision) from Ohio State. During that time, his offense from neutral has been a dramatic improvement.

Lilledahl comes from his first loss of his college career as a true beginner vs. Rutgers Dean Peterson (No. 10). However, as a two-time age group world champion and one of the best recruits nationally, however, he still has to be considered the favorite.

This is a chance for Cruz to prove that his hot start to 2025 is more than a fluke. It is also one of the few spots that Iowa can get a realistic disturbance.

133 Pound no. 3 Drake Ayala (11-1) against No. 7 Braedan Davis (7-2)

Previous Matchups: Ayala is 1-0, 4-2 victory after decision (9 February 2024).

Ayala missed last week’s double against Ohio State, but is the lonely wrestler listed at 133 for Iowa this week.

“When he is ready, he will be in that lineup,” said brands after the Ohio State Dual. “I think he’ll be in the lineup.”

After winning 10 consecutive matches, including a victory over No. 2 Lucas Byrd from Illinois, this is leaning against Ayala to get the victory. But with it was a one-Takedown match last year and Ayala’s status, the talented and cunning Sophomore Davis can’t be counted out either.

149 Pound no. 2 Kyle Parco (13-0) against No. 4 Shayne Van Ness (11-2)

Previous Matchups: Van Ness is 2-0 vs. Parco, who won 7-2 at the NCAA championship in 2023 and 5-1 on 2023 NWCA All-Star Classic (exhibition).

Van Ness has had Parco’s number in recent years, but Hawkeye has seen dominant at times this season and posted a 7-0 record vs. ranked opponents. In both matchups, Parco has not been able to score a dismantling of van Ness despite being in pipes and in on the bonfish.

This sets out to be one of the matches where a sequence defines the match, and with Van Ness that is difficult to score on, it leans.

157 Pound no. 1 Jacori Teems (3-1) against No. 3 Tyler Kazak (11-0)

Iowa Wrestlings Jacori Teems Previews Double with Penn State

See: Iowa Wrestlings Jacori Teems talking with the media in front of double with Penn State

Teems have a unique style as a patient, tactical, yet explosive wrestler. A match against a top-level competitor like Kazak, which flashed back from a first round loss to end the third on NCAA’s last year, had to create some amazing sequences of wrestling.

“I trust my abilities, I’m a player at the end of the day,” Teems said. “If I need to win, I can pull it out.”

As a recurring NCAA finalist, this is a place where fans and coaches have to rely on teems to control the style of the match and fight as he wants. If he can do it, even with his recent return from an injury, he will be in a good place.

“We need him to deliver,” Brands said Tuesday.

165 Pound no. 2 Michael Caliendo (13-0) vs. No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (13-0)

Previous Matchups: Mesenbrink is 3-0 vs. Caliendo, everything from last year, wins after decision (12-6, double), after technical fall (23-7, large titles) and after a major decision (17-9, NCAAS).

Mesenbrink is apparently one obstacle in front of Caliendo in his efforts for a national title. However, Caliendo has been able to get a dismantling in two of his three losses to Mesenbrink, despite the fact that the Penn State Wrestler dominated these matches otherwise.

At 13-0, Caliendo as well as anyone on Iowa’s list. He has five wins over ranked opponents, all of whom were ranked No. 13 or higher at the time they fought. He has a bonus-point victory in eight of his last nine games and in 10 of his 13 total bouts.

Caliendo’s blistering offensive tempo has got him far, but Mesenbrink is more than fine wrestling against this style and won through technical fall in every match this season that was not an abandon. How Caliendo adapts its gameplan for the match will be fascinating.

This is a high task for Caliendo, but a place where a disturbance would go a long way.

197 pounds: Nr. 1 Stephen Buchanan (13-0) against No. 4 Josh Barr (12-0)

Video: Iowa Wrestlings Stephen Buchanan Previews Penn State Dual

See: Iowa Wrestlings Stephen Buchanan talking to the media before the Penn State Dual

A graduate student National Title Contender vs. The highly talented beginner who wants to make his own statement, this is a great story. The pace of Barr has been a talk of college fighting this past month, especially in his 22-6 technical fall over Rutgers’ John Poznanski, where he scored all his points in the third period.

Buchanan has been just as excellent, 13-0 with six-ranked wins and 11 bonus-point victories. In his last dance as a college-wrestler, he has already beaten two blue-chip recruits, Oklahoma State Cody Merrill and Missouris Aeoden Sinclair.

However, Barr is similar to another talent level, making this another tight on paper.

285 Pound no. 11 Ben Kueter (10-2) Against No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet (10-0)

Iowa Wrestlings Gabe Arnold calls Penn State, Carter Starocci

Iowa Wrestlings Gabe Arnold calls Penn State, Carter Starocci after Ohio State Dual

Iowa Athletics

Previous Matchups: Kerkvliet is 1-0, 9-1 major decision

When these two met last year, Kueter had only fought for about a month and it showed. This time, things will be different with Kueter Wrestling full time now.

How different, however, will be the question. Kueter is one of the most talented guys in the world with a U20 world title under his belt, but as his former Iowa City High teammate Gabe Arnold explained, he has not always fought for that level this season.

“He almost goes into these matches and he’s like almost to try to survive, like ‘no, guy, you’re not a normal heavy weight, bone kueter, just as you have all the ability in the freaking world, go out there and freaking Do it, ‘Arnold said.

In the U20 World Finals in 2024, Kueter went toe with one of the world’s best, Iran’s Amirreza Masoumi, a world champion in several age group. He was in one-leg shots, but was unable to end his attacks when Masoumi’s size caused ambiguities in the action and the Iranian won by decision.

With a win over Ohio State’s Nick Feldman, one of College Wrestling’s best heavy weights, last week, the feeling of Kueter after the victory was visible. It was something that felt necessary for his confidence that went into this battle with Kerkvliet, a NCAA master.

Can Kueter turn the script? His talent says he can, but how he comes out in the first period and struggles with the size of Kerkvliet will be a great tale. If he can fight for his abilities and find a way around the size of the Kerkvliet, a rebellion here would be a double changing effort.

Final prediction for Iowa Wrestling against Penn State

If Hawkeyes are to defeat the Penn State, the path will have to look like this:

Winner at 133, 149, 157 and 197
Disorders in two of the following three weights: 125, 165 and heavy weight

At 133, 149, 157 and 197, Hawkeyes are either thrown or preferred a little in the match. These are spots you need to go away with victories.

From there, due to the potential for bonus points for Penn State of 141 and really almost everywhere with the talent in State College, winning six of 10, where Iowa was likely to be to withdraw a rebellion. The stains for disturbances to make it probably at 125, 165 and heavy weight as 141 is a heavy mismatch for Iowa. Plus, two of the country’s top wrestlers, Levi Haines (174) and Carter Starocci (184), threaten large and will be hard to win against.

It is a difficult route where Iowa probably needs everything to go its way, and that is why the Penn State is the heavy favorite.

Forecast: Penn State 23, Iowa 9

Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the DES MOINE register. Contact him on [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter on @Emckown23.