All eyes on OPEC+ ahead of February — Meeting

On February 1, 2025By Littum

The prices of crude oil remain under pressure this week as rising US stocks and escalating merchant stresses weigh mood. A larger than expected building in crude oil has strengthened demand problems, while uncertainty about potential US tariffs in Canadian and Mexican crude oil adds market volatility.

Geopolitical factors, including fresh US sanctions against Russian oil and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, also affect the price. Dealers remain cautious as supply and demand signals diverges and keeps the market on edge.

US Raw inventory waves, adding pressure downwards

Oil prices slipped this week after US raw stores had a bigger increase than expected. The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a building of 3.5 million barrels that exceeded analysts’ expectations of 3.2 million barrels. The increase was attributed to lower refinery output, partly caused by winter storms that disturbed the operations.

Gasoline and distillate holdings also reflected signs of weaker demand, adding the bearish tone. With refineries that reduce running and demand that struggling to recover, they remain almost the term outlook. This stock increase is expanding a tendency for increasing stocks over the past few weeks, suggesting the supply will surpass consumption.

Battles on crude oil as inventories are climbing and trade risks

The prices of crude oil remain under pressure this week as rising US stocks and escalating merchant tensions …

US Raw inventory waves, adding pressure downwards

Battles on crude oil as inventories are climbing and trade risks

The oil market remains on the edge of US President Donald Trump’s renewed customs threats against Canadian and Mexican crude imports. The White House confirmed this week that a 25% customs could be imposed as early as Saturday, unless both countries take stronger action against fentanyl trading.

This has created uncertainty for US refineries as Canada delivers approx. 3.9 million barrels per Day (BPD) crude oil to the United States, which accounts for almost half of the total import. Mexico contributes an additional 733,000 BPD. If these tariffs take effect, they may interfere with raw currents and force refineries to seek alternative supplies and add volatility to oil prices.

While some analysts believe that much of this risk has already been priced in, any confirmation that customs duties may trigger fresh market reactions. The result of these trade negotiations will be a critical factor in oil price movements over the next few days.

Russian supply disorders offer limited support

Despite the bearish pressure from rising US warehouses and merchant stresses, crude prices found some support from tightening Russian oil exports. New US sanctions have put additional restrictions on Moscow’s raw shipments, with exports from Russia’s western ports expected to fall by 8% in February.

The fall comes when Russia redirects more raw against domestic refining, reducing the available exports to the global markets. However, this has not been enough to offset concerns about wider demand, and dealers are still skeptical of whether these disorders will give lasting momentum upwards.

OPEC+ meeting weave when Trump presses on for lower prices

All eyes are now at the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for February 3rd. The key focus will be whether the group will adjust the production plans in response to Trump’s call for lower oil prices. The US administration has pushed OPEC+ – especially Saudi Arabia – to increase production and argue that lower oil prices would help limit inflation and put financial burden on Russia.

However, OPEC+has been reluctant to make sudden changes in production policy. With supply disorders in Libya, and global warehouses are rising, the group may see a small incentive to adjust its output quotas in the short term. Any signals from this production strategy meeting are closely monitored by dealers.

Weekly light crude oil futures

Trend indicator analysis

The weekly trend remains bullish, but momentum is weakened. A step below $ 64.78 would confirm a trend turning to the downside, while a breakout of $ 79.44 would signal a continuation of Uptrend.

In the short term, the range is set between $ 80.00 and $ 61.61 with immediate support of 50% Retracement level of $ 70.80. The wider range ranges from $ 85.78 to $ 59.55, and prices are currently over the most important pivot for $ 69.55, indicating a bullish bias.

The psychological resistance to $ 80.00 is still a significant obstacle. However, the weekly diagram suggests that the path for the least resistance is lower, with $ 70.80- $ 69.55 zone giving a strong value. A gene test of this level is likely to attract fresh buying interests.

Weekly technical prognosis

The direction of the weekly Light Row Oil Futures Market Week, which ends on February 7, is likely to be determined by the trader reaction of $ 75.73.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained step over $ 75.73 signalizes the presence of strong buyers. If this creates enough momentum in the short term, we could see a possible gene test of $ 79.44 to $ 80.00 in the short term.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained step below $ 75.73 will indicate the presence of counter -trend sellers. This can create the disadvantage momentum needed to challenge the value zone to $ 70.80 to $ 69.55.

Market forecast: Bearish Sentiment applies, Expected Volatility

Crude oil markets remain under bearish pressure as rising inventories, duty risks and weaker demand data weigh emotions. If prices break below the most important support level of $ 70.50, further sales could be triggered, leading to additional disadvantages.

However, volatility is still a factor of potential geopolitical development and the OPEC+ meeting next week, giving catalysts for price fluctuations. Dealers must remain cautious and monitor key market indicators, including warehouses, trade policy messages and adjustments to the supply side of major manufacturers.

Currently, the path remains with the least resistance to the disadvantage, with raw prices struggling to find strong Bullish drivers in the current environment.

Technically, it seems to be enough disadvantage momentum to challenge $ 70.80 to $ 69.55. With the basics that are bearish at this point, it doesn’t seem to be anything urgent to jump in front of support. It’s better to wait for your price.