Assad Management. Why an appointment that would allow Russia to preserve its military bases in Syria is unlikely – Novaya Gazeta Europe

During negotiations with a delegation led by Russian Deputy Administration Minister Mikhail Bogdanov in Damascus earlier this week, Syria’s transitional government demanded that Russia, sponsor of so much of the country’s suffering in the last decade, pays compensation for his role in keeping former dictator Bashar al -Asad in power and made it clear that any restoration of the connections between the two countries “should take into account the mistakes of the past, respect the will of the Syrian people and serve their interests”.

Military analyst Sergey Auslender told Novaya Europe that it was reasonable to conclude that the negotiations had “so far not been successful”, based on what he called the streamlined language used in Russian state media coverage of the negotiations, not to mention The fact that the Russian side would probably have posted any progress to the world immediately. “Apparently, the most important state is set by the Syrians, the extradition of Bashar al-Assad, and I assume that Russia has already decided not to accept it,” Auslender adds.

While Putin may be deciding to hide between the well-known Russian propaganda slogan “We do not give up on our own” is the real reason why he will be unlikely to repatriate Assad to Syria, his fear that the former Syrian dictator could be forced to reveal the truth about the extent of Russian war crimes in the Middle East when facing a court where he will be questioned in detail about the arbitrary Russian attack On civilian infrastructure in Idlib as well as the use of chemical weapons during the country’s civil war.

“As far as I know, the new Syrian government requires the extradition of not one but three Assads: Bashar, as well as his accomplices: his brother and his sister’s husband,” says military expert Sergey Migdal, who calls all three “blood -soaked criminals” .

But for Russia to simply transfer an asset like Assad, whose proximity to the Kremlin and the Russian intelligence services are well known, Migdal would undermine those who cooperate with the Kremlin around the world. This code, which in the past has led the Russian intelligence services to kidnap Western citizens, if necessary to ensure that key assets are eventually exchanged, Putin supports the worldwide network of agents and partners.

In addition to the extradition of Assad, Syria’s temporary government also requires compensation for the destruction caused by Russian forces fighting in the country. After all, it was Russian aviation that affected hospitals, schools, bridges and other civilian infrastructure whose costs will be hundreds of millions, if not in billions of dollars.

“Don’t forget that Assad has transferred his very significant fortune to Russia,” says Auslender, although he admits that the exact size of the former dictator’s pension fund is unknown. Nevertheless, Assad would have expected to share part of his “rainy day” fund with the Kremlin to pay for his permanent stay in the country, “just as happened with (former Ukrainian President Viktor) Yanukovich and the other set aside presidents who Ended up in Russia, ”says Auslender.

“The EU has issued a communication to normalize relations with Syria, where one of the points, compliance with a prerequisite for the EU assistance to be awarded Syria is the deportation of Russian bases from Syrian territory,” adds Migdal. “Only then will billions of dollars financial assistance flow into the country.”

In 1971, Bashar al-Assad’s father Hafez allowed the Soviet navy to open a logistics point in the city of Tartus, thereby fulfilling a Russian ambition to have a naval base on the Mediterranean dating back to Tsar Whole strike group here.

“The logistics point in Tartus makes it possible to service warships on long -distance emissions,” Pavel Aksyonov told a military analyst for BBC News Russian, to Novaya Europe. It was through Tartus that the so -called Syrian express, the fleet of Russian vessels supplying weapons and staff to Syria, drives, and as such, the presence of Russian troops in the region is dependent on the base.

Syria was also used by the Russian military as a staging post to deliver its lucrative deployment of mercenaries to countries in Africa, according to Aksyonov, which notes the length of the runway at Hmeimim Air Base, which allows it to receive heavy Russian military transport aircraft , which is too big for most runways.

The HMEIMIM -FLYBUND is even more a question for the Russians today than the naval base in Tartus, according to Auslender, who says there were between 7,000-8,000 Russian military staff in Syria at the time of Assad’s crash, even though most of them were technical staff, But this number has been significantly reduced and the number of Russian military staff in Syria may have fallen to the hundreds.

“During the offensive, the rebels were able to reach Hmeimim Air Base quite quickly,” says Auslender. “And such facilities, with their mile long perimeters, isolated in the enormous of the desert, are very challenging to ensure. Maybe the Turks will take over or the new government will come with another way of using the base. “

Never a country that can be accused of laid all its eggs in a basket, Russia is currently being joined to negotiate to establish a military base in the Libyan city of Benghazi, according to Migdal.

According to Flightradar, Russian aircraft have begun to fly through Benghazi regularly, and although Libya is gripped by instability, turmoil and civil war, which means ensuring that the security of a flight base, aircraft, cargo or staff would be a huge logistical challenge, Starting with a fresh slate and a new set of allies must have a significant appeal for the Russian military, whose top brass may well decide that it is now time to move on from Syria.