Weighing the fallen from Trump’s threatening trade war

On By Littum

What weekend with headlines, from customs rates in Canada, China and Mexico to Elon Musk, coming inside the Treasury Department’s payment system. We all have the details below – a cheating of virginity of changes that are likely to affect the global economy and society. We also have lots of questions about what’s happening.

If tariffs are a negotiating tool, how long will negotiations take – and how does President Trump measure success? How long will the US public be willing to suffer the “pain” that Trump recognized that his tariffs will inflict? The Friend -Diagram of them is how much time and gearing Washington want or won’t have.

We also want to know if Musk’s access to the Ministry of Finance’s payment system means he is able to unilaterally end certain payments. And what kind of legal – and practical use will individuals or organizations have to judge these decisions?

One of Wall Street’s worst fears of the return of Donald Trump to the White House is ready to become reality: US equity futures are down sharply on Monday, just as the global markets are, as huge tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico are set to to take effect right after midnight east.

Some still hope that the charges that are expected to cover a third of US imports, or $ 1 trillion in goods a year, will either not happen or will not last long. But business leaders, economists and investors are careful that Trump’s open goals mean they will be in force for a while, leading to a trade war that could have devastating effects on the US economy.

The latest: The three countries promised retaliation in what would be a rapid escalation of a trade match against three of America’s biggest trading partners. (Trump’s executive order that authorizes tariffs allows Washington to rip up his taxes if the targeted countries impose opposing tips.)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada warned Americans that the battle would “have real consequences for you” as he discussed introducing customs duties from politically important American states, including Kentucky Bourbon, Florida Oranges and Pennsylvania-made Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

Trump defended his plan this weekend: “This will be Golden Age of America! Will there be any pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!) ” He wrote about truth social.

Business groups expressed concern about the consequences of a trade war. US car manufacturers ”should not have their competitiveness undermined“At the tariffs, Matt Blunt told the US car political advice to Business Insider.

Fed must find out how to react, including whether tariffs pose a long -term threat to inflation. The central bank already breaks reductions in interest rates and is not expected to resume them for at least a few months.

Criticism of Trump’s plans came in from all over the political spectrum. “The stupidest trade war in the story“Was the headline for a statement of Wall Street Journal’s editorial, which has generally supported the president. And Senator Rand Paul, Republican from Kentucky, claimed that “taxation of trade will mean less trade and higher prices.”

On the democratic side, Larry Summers wrote In a long thread of X, that Canada and Mexico duties were “inexplicable and dangerous.”

The big question is how long all of this lasts. The common wisdom was that Trump’s threats were a negotiating tactic. But the lack of clear guidelines suggests that this is more the kind of asymmetrical deal-making Trump is known for, leading to confusion for leaders and world leaders.

A concern for the mind of global leaders is whether Trump’s plan is permanently encrypted to the global economic order – and perhaps leaving the United States in the cold.

The Trump administration seems to be ratchet pressure on Panama. State Secretary Marco Rubio told the country’s leader that President Trump had decided that China exercised “influence and control” over the Panama channel and demanded “immediate changes.” Trump said that “we will take” the channel back, or “something very powerful will happen.” Messaging throws further uncertainty about the fate of the waterway, a key channel for global trade.

OPEC Plus is reportedly planning to reject pressure to greatly increase raw production. The group of oil -producing countries will likely stick to scheduled gradual climbs In output, despite the calls of Trump to move quickly to lower prices, according to Reuters. Analysts said the group was likely to embark on diplomatic efforts to prevent its members from being in return from Washington.

The leader of the CFPB is fired. Rohit Chopra, who was to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau until late next year, managed to hang on for almost two weeks despite the expectations that Trump would reject him. The administration is expected to roll back the agency’s supervision, although Chopra urged Trump to use the agency as a partner for consumer protection initiatives, including covering credit cards.

Despite his high title, Elon Musk’s so -called Department of Government Efficiency had faced a big question about the scope of its powers. How much authority could an advisory panel have by actually cutting down on public spending?

Over the weekend, the answer turned out to be a lot, which proved how much influence the tech mogul so far exerts inside the Trump administration.

Musk demanded credit for the apparently impending death of USAID “We shut it down“He said at an X Spaces event early on Monday, saying he had spoken to President Trump about running the US Agency of International Development, which Musk has repeatedly attacked, often with reference to conspiracy theories. It came after two top officials at Aid Agency were put on administrative leave to deny musk representatives access to a secure area in the agency to get classified information, Times reports.

The agency’s employees based in Washington were told to work from home Monday and attend a meeting on Tuesday, where they are expected to be informed about sweeping reduction of the workforce, Times reports.

And his team now has access to the Ministry of Finance’s payment system, that sends money to federal contractors, social security and Medicare recipients, those caused by tax refuses and more.

The move gives his panel Extraordinary insight In public spending – and comes after a career -tax official was put on leave to refuse to give access to Musk’s representatives. (This official has since retired.)

The news solidifies Musk’s status as a power to be counted on. He has boasted that panel’s staff, full of Young technical typesworked ”120 hours a week. “More importantly, he still has support from President Trump, who on Sunday praised the billionaire as” very smart. “

Musk’s critics say he risks getting a leg up on competitors with his growing power, but Corporate America seems to take no chances. A growing number of companies including Amazon, Boeing and United Airlines has announced Plans to work with musk -owned businessesAlthough some have been in the works for months.

When a Delaware judge handed Elon Musk in a shareholder’s lawsuit that cost him a $ 50 billion salary, he promised to reinchorate elsewhere.

Now, Count Meta, Dropbox And even Bill Ackman Among those who at least weigh plans to move elsewhere. Nevada and Texas are the new favorite destinations. (While Musk was not the first to complainhe was the highest.)

Delaware has been known for decades as a state of business -friendly tax law and a quick and sophisticated legal system, but it may have lost its charm, Dealbooks Lauren Hirsch reports.

A Performance: Musk set the tone early. The world’s richest man has risen several times against Kathaleen McCormick, Delaware Chancery Court’s main judge. McCormick effectively forced him to keep up with his acquisition of Twitter in 2022, and she twice overturned his high Tesla payroll.

Musk reincorporated Tesla in Texas soon. McCormick’s decision caused other founder-controlled companies to consider doing the same.

The excitement has rattled Delaware. ONE Move last year Of the state’s general meeting to remain attractive to business by allowing board members to give important shareholders’ most important governance power – as a veto against a merger – caused a revolt. Such contracts are common practice among venture -backed companies, but not in public companies. Delaware Stalwarts claimed that the legislature had given great money, while the defenders of the law claimed it would help avoiding expensive litigation.

A former Delaware referee, William Chandler, gave a fiery speech on the house base attacker Judge McCormick and another Delaware judge, Travis Laster.

“Right now, the corporate market is not comfortable with Delaware,” said Chandler, attaching this sense of “the uncertainty and unpredictability of a few decisions from only two judges.”

Delaware -exodus won’t stop soon. There are still outputs coming, the Dealbook hears – though for now it is more likely to be a dribbler than a flood. The business world has expected a looser legislative environment under President Trump, and moving into even more friendly business states now seems to be part of the Playbook.

Silicon Valley has been amazed to find out how good Deepseek, the Chinese artificial intelligence phenomenon, stacks up to well -financed American rivals like chatgpt.

Dealbook decided to give it a shot.

We both asked to come up with a solution to another topic about our minds: President Trump’s apparent focus on taking control of Greenland from Denmark. It was noteworthy to see how each program (one from China, the other from the United States) thought through the problems and came up with rather similar approaches.

Prompt:

Help me think of the best way for President Trump and Denmark to solve their standoff over the future of Greenland as Trump wants to own the island – and is not willing to exclude military or financial strength to take it – and Denmark would probably probably call the EU to help defend it if it is attacked. The goal is to avoid international conflict.

Both chatbots offered Multistep -Iplomatic strategies to prepare peaceful decisions:

  • Deepseek R1 offered steps such as “de-scaling and clarification”, including public obligations for peaceful solutions; Comes with a US-Greenland-Denmark Investment Partnership; trust NATO; and sign a resource sharing agreement.

  • Chatgpt O1’s ideas included securing the presence of a Greenlandic voice at the negotiating table; Move the discussion to partnership from ownership, including financial ventures for rare earth soil minerals and other resources; Coordination with NATO and the European Union; and excluding military and financial strength.

Deepseek R1 concluded that its approach provided victories for the United States, Denmark and Greenland as well as for the rule -based international order. “This approach balances realism with diplomacy and transforms a contentious question into a model for cooperative problem solving in the Arctic,” wrote it.

Chatgpt O1 said the key to solving the resistance was “a shift away from a transactional ‘buy’ concept that disregards local sovereignty and international alliances.” Generally, the chatbot advanced more of an argument with a consistent thesis.

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