Selection of Delhi: Will Congress-Aap Split help BJP return to power after 27 years? | India news

New Delhi: Completion measurements have predicted a cessation of the 10-year rule on Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi with most of the Pollsters who gave BJP a majority in the February 5. If these predictions apply on February 8, when the votes are counted, it would mark BJP’s return to power in the national capital after 27 long years.
While BJP helped by his NDA allies went out for Woo Delhi voters, the India block was shared in this battle with Allied AAP and Congress, turning bitter rivals into this match with high effort. The campaign saw Congress and AAP targeting each other hard. Arvind Kejriwal constantly claimed that Congress contested these elections to help BJP, while the big old party questioned AAP’s decade-long governance in the national capital.
Congress, once a dominant political force in Delhi with a government under Sheila Dikshit’s leadership for 15 years, has lost much of its traditional voter base to Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Kejriwal, who came from India against the Corruption Movement, won 28 seats in AAP’s debut excursion in 2013. Much of these gains were achieved at the expense of Congress. In 2015, AAP rose to a sweeping victory, claimed 67 seats and left Congress without representation in the assembly.
With the two parties who dispute as rivals, a key question remains: Will a potential division between AAP and Congress pave the way for a BJP victory, or will AAP manage to ensure consolidation of Muslim and Dalit votes to block BJP’s path again ? In particular, BJP has no Muslim candidate in Delhi.
All eyes are now on the final results, which will be announced on February 8th. Here’s a look at how the fight between AAP and Congress may help BJP in some Delhi seats.

Throw the question

In the last election, AAP had secured a strong lead in all 12 SC-reserved constituencies, leaving BJP afterwards while Congress struggled to remain competitive.

Marginal of Victory in 2020:

Right through the 2025 campaign, Rahul Gandhi made a strong pitch for greater representation of Dalitters, backward societies and tribes – the target groups traditionally with Congress but switched to AAP at the last two elections.
If Gandhi’s caste -focused rhetoric attracts considerable support from the targeted groups, which potentially shares the voting share between AAP and Congress, it can change the result – especially in seats where the victory margin was slim. It can ultimately tip the scales in favor of BJP.
In Bawana, AAP won with 11,526 votes, while Sultan Pur Majra saw one of the biggest for example, in Bawana (SC), Congress AAP with only 11,526 votes, while Congress in Sultan (SC) in Sultan (SC) was Back of a significant 48,052 votes. Mangol Puri (SC) also saw a close race where Congress was to vote after 30,116 votes. Similarly in Karol Bagh (SC), Congress stood behind 31,760 votes, and in Patel Nagar (SC) the gap was 30,935 votes. In areas such as Vearsapuri (SC) and Gokalpur (SC), Congress had a tight disadvantage of 56,108 votes and 19,488 votes respectively.
There are 12 seats with a strong Muslim voter base; Historically, these voters have not been in line with BJP, making AAP and Congress their probable alternatives. Whether these votes consolidate or divide could determine the final result of this choice of high effort.

Muslim voters have the key?

The voter’s turnout in the Muslim majority system for the election in the Delhi assembly showed high participation.
Seelampur registered a high turnout of 68.70%with a turnout close to Mustafabad, which had the highest turnout in northeastern Delhi of 69%. Other constituencies with remarkable turnout include Sultanpur Majra (SC-reserved) of 68.30%and Babarpur of 66%, which ranked well in northeastern Delhi.

Marginal of Victory in 2020:

Seelampur, with 57% Muslim voters, was once a congress’s fortress, but was won by AAP in 2015 and 2020. This time Aaps Chaudhary Zubair Ahmad against Congress’s Abdul Rehman, a sitting MLA, recently switched from AAP to the Congress.
Congress also emerges as the most important competitor against AAP in Muslim heavy seats such as Matia Mahal (60%Muslim voters), Ballimaran (50%), OKHLA (52%) and Chandni Chowk (30%).
Obviously, many of these seats will be under close to all stakeholders tomorrow when the votes are counted. We will have to wait for the actual results to find out if Congress has actually damaged the prospects of AAP in these elections.