With egg prices rising, are chicken next?

On February 8, 2025By Littum

A lack of chicken meat is not in the US menu, experts said, even when eggs remain relatively expensive and in short supply nationwide.

At least not because of bird flu-related deficiency.

Still, a lack of eggs and steep prices can lead to consumers moving to other cheap forms of protein, which can lead to consumer -induced deficiency and price increases, an expert to USA Today told. Egg-decking hens and broiler poultry bred to meats different, said Will Strickland, an assistant expansion agent for Louisiana State University’s Agcenter.

Egg layer “Normally never ends up in our meat supply when they are done,” said Strickland.

While both are chickens, they are very different, explained Matt Sutton-Vermeulen, the principal of agriculture and food practice in Kearney, a global strategy and management consultant.

“You have sprinters and you have marathon runners and they are not the same,” he said.

The Average price of a pound of boneless chicken breast In an American city, $ 4.10 was in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average price in November was $ 4.01. In December 2023 it was $ 4.08.

Current Bird Influenza tribes have had an impact on egg hens

While the bird flu could affect chickens and broilers, the current strains affect egg hens at a much higher speed.

It also has to do with how chickens and broilers are raised and housed.

“The amount of birds that are in a room for our lay facilities is a much higher number than the amount of birds that in a room on our broilers,” Strickland said.

For example, some hen complexes may have 1 million plus birds on site, while a broiler may have 10,000 chickens, Sutton-Vermeulen said.

So when a bird flu case emerges in a laying facility and the USDA orders the birds killed, it is much more devastating to supply, Strickland said.

“When you lose 10% of a total production system in an inelastic product where demand does not go down because prices are rising, it’s really tough,” Sutton-Vermeulen said.

Then it takes much longer for new egg -lagging hens to mature and be ready to produce eggs that can emerge in the grocery store.

In “Best Cases” without more bird losses with bird flu it could take more than nine months before the replacement of the lost hens has eggs that emerge in grocery stores, Sutton-Vermeulen formerly USed US Today told. There have already been 14 million laying hens lost in the last two weeks.

Chickens bred as broilers are born and harvested usually within 30 to 60 days, Strickland said.

The short life cycle of the broiler chicken makes it a lower potential that exposure to bird flu will have a ring effect on the supply in the industry, Sutton-Vermeulen said.

“I’m not necessarily concerned right now over a (broiler) of poultry,” Strickland said. “That’s not to say that something devastating couldn’t happen.”

There have been some turkey holdings and duck operations that have had some cases of bird flu but not enough to cause concerns about any lack of bird flu, Sutton said.

Turkey has a higher vulnerability because it takes longer for a turkey to grow and mature, but Sutton-Vermeulen said he does not fear a turkey deficiency when demand is highest, “but we will have to monitor that bunch.”

Could other food such as beef and milk supplies be affected by deficiency?

Fuglinfluenza does not have the same influence on beef and dairy wall supplies, as it is on hen-layer birds, despite the fact that there is a variant of bird flu found in dairy cows, Sutton-Vermeulen said.

“It’s not a concern that I hear from … the veterinarians and producers,” he said.

Sutton-Vermeulen’s company, Kearney, has working conditions with people everywhere on the food supply chains, he said.

“I do not see other strategic vulnerabilities in the food supply system related to this,” he said.

Deficiency, price increases could come from changing goods and demand

Although there are no widespread concerns in egg deficiency that affect the markets of chicken and other foods, there may still be deficiency and price increases for other foods driven by consumer behavior, said John Clear, senior director in the consumer and retail group of Global Professional Professional service company Alvarez & Marsal.

There may be ring effects with other products, Clear said.

“It’s like protein ping pong,” he said. Historically, eggs have been a cheap protein source for all income levels. But when people, especially those looking for a protein -rich diet, start looking for alternatives to eggs, they will move to the next cheapest form of protein in the retail chain, usually things like tuna, chicken meat and pork, Clear said.

Then will sweep that temporarily run out of stock as they did not expect the ripple effect, will over -order, and then there will be a surplus in the store, Clear said.

It looks like what happened to toilet paper under the Covid-19 pandemic when consumers emptied store shelves as they feared deficiency. It’s called the Bullwship effect, Clear said.

Something also happened with a minor effect in 2021, when a bird flu outbreak caused a shortage of eggs, but it wasn’t on this scale, Clear said.

“We have record high prices right now, so this is more of an extreme situation,” he said. “But this happened before … and the best indicator of future (consumer) behavior is past behavior.”

Clear does not think consumers will switch to beef as a proteinal alternative as fast as others, as beef prices are not so cheap.

Egg price increases will be larger at the end of the food services market longer

Clear also predicts the rising prices of eggs that have a greater and longer effect on the food industry – or any provider that is not the grocer.

Birth machines can quickly change the price of eggs based on the higher costs of the manufacturers. But food providers, from restaurants to grocery stores with prepared foods, have previous contracts for eggs in place. These contracts do not reflect current prices. So manufacturers are likely to prioritize getting their supplies to food stores that can pay the higher prices than food providers while trying to renegotiate the food service contracts, Clear said.

But restaurants can’t change their menu prices every day to reflect rising egg prices, he said. Food providers use eggs in myriad of dishes, sauces and for baking. He believes that more will add supplies to their egg products, such as Waffle House, which announced a 50 cents additional fee.

“You will see a greater influence in the food service for a long time,” he said.

This story has been updated to add new information.

Betty Lin-Fisher is a consumer reporter for USA Today. Well her at [email protected] Or follow her on x, facebook or instagram @blinfisher. Sign up for our Free The Daily Money Newsletter which will include consumer news on Fridays, here.