UFC 312: Expert Selection, Best Bet for You Plessis-Strickland 2

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Two UFC titles are ready to get hold of this weekend when the middle weight champion Dricus du Plessis faces Sean Strickland in the UFC 312 Main Event, a new match for their title match in January 2024, and Strawweight -Master Zhang Weili goes after her third title defense Against Tatiana Suarez in Co-Main. The match card will take place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney Saturday (22:00 one at ESPN+ PPVWith Prelims at. 20 on ESPN2/Disney+/ESPN+and early prelims at. 18 on Disney+/ESPN+).

Du Plessis, tied to No. 9 in ESPN’s pound-for-pound locations and undefeated inside Octagon, last defended the title against former champion Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 in August. Strickland, ESPN’s No. 2-ranked middleweight, is a former master of the division. He lost the belt until you Plessis in their last match.

Dre Waters spoke with veteran MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main and co-main events. ESPN -betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis about the title matches and other exciting efforts he likes on the card.

The editor’s note: The answers are edited for briefness and clarity.

Middle Weasure: Dricus you Plessis against Sean Strickland

Your Thomas, Veteran MMA -Thor and ESPN -Analytic

How you Plessis wins: He has to keep pressure on strickland and dictate the pace. Keep moving to keep strickland on the back foot. You Plessis have to attack first, but he also has to attack last if Strickland has a counter for you Plessis’ first attack. In addition to affecting Strickland’s game plan, this activity could look better in the judges’ eyes. You Plessis is also a skilled grappler and if he can use this ability, it will be difficult for Strickland to predict what is coming.

How Strickland wins: Strickland must continue to move on. Whether it throws more kicks or is more active with his blows, he has to bring the fight to you Plessis. Strickland did not throw many kicks in the first match, but mixing them could help this time. Strickland also has to throw more strokes. He was pretty effective with Jabmen in the first match, but he has to use it consistently this time.

X Factor: Strickland’s power. As Strickland has evolved as a fighter, he has developed more confidence in his power. It’s cleaner now. He may be able to hurt you Plessis with the right hand, but he has to throw it to do it. It will probably be the straight dish that catches you Plessis because of the technical character that Strickland can throw it with.

Forecast: Strickland to win. His willingness to wait for this fight was to tell as he seems to be sure to go into the re -fight. I think he is very motivated and has caught the eye of a new match for over a year now.

Betting analysis

Odds accurate from the publication. For the most up -to -date odds, visits Espn bet.

Parks: Over 4.5 rounds (-190). In their first match on the UFC 297, you won Plessis by shared decision in a closely disputed match and the re -match will have the same result. Even if you Plessis come out of a win over Adesanya, Strickland is extremely durable and does not sit in dangerous situations. I don’t mind playing over 4.5 rounds in the current odds. But if you want a better price, take the fight to go the distance as it is hard not to imagine this match going to bell.

Strawweight: Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez

Your Thomas, Veteran MMA -Thor and ESPN -Analytic

How Zhang wins: Zhang’s footwork must be at the point. She must be able to come in and attack Suarez and then come out without putting herself in a compromising position. If she does this properly, she can worn down Suarez and take over Matchup. Spark must be part of her game plan; Like the shorter fighter, it allows her to get more separation from Suarez. The kicks could also affect the movement of Suarez, which is not her strongest trait.

How Suarez wins: She has to corralate Zhang in a position where she has to fight. Cut the cage and corner zhang, and then shoot good removal attempts. Suarez has to get a good grip on Zhang before shooting after a dismantling. Once she’s got the dismantling, Suarez has to look for choker when she changes on the mat. There will be great opportunities to grab Zhang’s neck as she tries to get in a better position or get back on her feet.

X Factor: Zhang’s power. Zhang is the shorter fighter, but she has lots of power in her blows. I could see a situation where the two break from a clicking order, and Zhang lands an upper hand that could end the fight.

Forecast: Suarez to win. Sometimes these circumstances present themselves. Suarez is a fighter whose career has been derailed by cancer and injuries. Now she finally gets her titled shot. This is her time. It’s like divine intervention.

Betting analysis

Parker: Suarez to win (-120). Suarez gets his first shot at UFC Gold vs. Zhang. Zhang is strong and has proven that she can make an opponent’s night miserable in the cage for 25 minutes.

However, Zhang’s weakness is her dismantling defense and against the strongest wrestler in women’s MMA, which can be a problem. We saw her being taken down by Yan Xiaonan in her last match. If yan, which is not predominantly a wrestler, can get zhang on the mat, Suarez should be able to do so without any problems. I also think Suarez is one of the few warriors that can match Zhang’s physical. Unless Zhang can hold this match standing and knocking out Suarez, you can expect a new master at the end of the night.

Parks’ best bets on the rest of the card

Featherweight: Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos

Over 2.5 rounds (-200). This fight flies under the radar. I’m a little surprised that Jenkins is the sub -dog here, so it’s not out of the question to take a fly on him. However, over 2.5 rounds of the game, as both fighters are hard to remove. Look for Jenkins to defend himself against a wrestle-heavy approach from Santos while using Ben Spark to slow him down.

Women’s Flyweight: Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil

Brasil to win (+325). I am confused by the wide line here as Brasil has the necessary tools to beat Wang. Wang goes out of a loss of submission in his last match and is now fighting for a grappler capable of taking her down and holding the fight on the ground. Brasil is also a submission threat. On such big odds, take a fly on Brasil as she is the more experienced fighter with good striking and a better earth game. In addition, Brasil has a fantastic team behind her, training with the fighting nerves.