How Anora became this year’s surprise Oscar Frontrunner | Anora

It had already felt like an eerie Oscars race than usual.

The question of what wins the best picture had been asked and then answered by most with a shoulder move, the front trunner changed with the day. At various points in the last few months, experienced prognosticers have offered Conclave, Wicked, a complete unknown, September 5, Brutalist or Emilia Pérez as their choice, the race changes with the smallest tile of new Intel.

Last month’s Golden Globes, who saw Emilia Pérez and the brutalist winning the Major Film Awards, and then the Oscar nominations, also led by the same two titles, seemed to determine a clearer two-horse race. But the films were, to say the least, unusual Oscar bet. One crime musical about a Trans Cartel manager and the other a three-hour plus drama about architecture, both with languages ​​other than English, both with less budgets than the Academy tends to reward. Although we had several tea leaves to read, it felt difficult to passionately anointed either as a sure thing.

But then the last weekend showed us why such restraint had been difficult to shake when Sean Baker’s frenetic comedy Anora surprised most with a trio of bigger victories. Only on Friday night did the best photo take home at the Critics Choice Awards and then on Saturday it won the top prize at Producers Guild Awards before Baker won the best director at Director Guild Awards.

While the first is not so much of an important precursor (former winners have been the same, but there are more deviations than usual from Roma to the dog’s power to boys), PGA and DGA tend to give a clearer sign of where we ‘re -on the road. Since it started back in 1989, the winner of the PGA Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture has mirrored the possible best picture Oscar winner in all except 10 ceremonies (1917, La La Land, The Great Short and Little Miss Sunshine was the four latest apartments). Similarly, the winner of the DGA Award for unique instruction of a feature film has only clashes eight times (Argos Ben Affleck is the last and most famous example).

Before this weekend, some had started to place anora premature as a potential bridesmaid in the season, after leaving both the Golden Globes and Gothams without a single price (if Anora wins the best picture, it would only be the sixth time since 1975 that A movie without a single globe achieves this). Even at Friday’s Critics Choice Awards, the movie hadn’t won a single award all night until it went away with the best photo at the end. Star Mikey Madison, who plays the titular character, had been seen as a potential best actress Frontrunner – the movie is dominated by her brash breakout performance when a sex worker swept her feet – but it had seemed that the race favored comeback Queen Demi Moore the drug or maybe Fernanda Torres for I am still here, further proof of the Academy’s increasingly international voting base. Madison may still be unable to stop either train (a woman under 30 has not won the award since 2016, and her invention narrative may be less enticing and structured than her most important competition), but Anora is a movie that rests on The shoulders themselves and author-instructor Baker, making it difficult to see how at least one of them is not swept up. Baker would be more likely here, nominated as a writer, director, producer and editor, a victory that represented a slow embrace for an unconventional Oscar talent (Pre-Anora, his film had the net only a nomination for the Date-Florida project’s Willem Dafoe for best supportive actor).

If he or the movie wins, it will further reflect how a younger, more diverse voting base still fine-tuning, if not exactly redefines what an Oscar movie is now (this is, after all, the post-Openheimer year). The best director nominated this year excludes many of the bigger players – Wickes Jon M Chu, Dune: Del Two’s Denis Villeneuve – and focuses more on those who did a lot with a little (Anora’s budget was $ 6m, the brutalist cost $ 10 million. The acting nominated snubbed also former winners of the A-List as Nicole Kidman, Denzel Washington and Angelina Jolie instead of 13 the first time.

While, far from, a movie like Emilia Pérez may have seemed like a choice that would reflect a more progressive base – it has quickly become one of the most reviled Oscar challengers this year. A movie about a trans woman in Mexico has been rejected by many transgender people and many Mexicans as well as by critics, with the film scoring the lowest rotten tomatoes judging out of this year’s crop. LGBTQ+ Advocacy Group Glaad called It “a deeply retrograde portrayal of a trans woman” and said it represented “one step back” to representation, while the film has been accused of perpetuating Mexican stereotypes. Its misleading success on the Golden Globes shows that despite some structural improvements with whom voting for prices, Globes will continue to clutter no matter (this year also Pamela Anderson nominated by Marianne Jean-Baptist).

Its fall from grace was in progress long before the star Karla Sofía Gascón’s unpleasant crop of Bigoted Tweets was found, but it is now confirmed its place as this year’s award voucher. It may not affect the nominated actress Zoe Saldaña, who is still a favorite in its category, but it has had an undeniable influence on the film’s overall chances, with gascón removed from both the campaign track and any “to your consideration” advertising. The voters who may have seen an Emilia Pérez vote as a strength to socially good can now be less secure, and so many have considered where these voices can now go. There is an argument to be made to Wicked, another musical that embraces inclusive with a positive message, but Anora could also fill the gap in another way. It is another Cannes-Premiering Female-led movie made on a shoestring budget (about $ 15m less than Emilia Pérez) that represents the bold vision of a movie producer who finally gets a broader recognition after a series of impressive indi. While larger, man -led movies like Oppenheimer will always remain in the race, the victory for Anora would fall in line with what has become more of the best picture norm, a smaller movie that could (Parasite’s budget was $ 11m, Coda’s was $ 10 million. and nomadlands were $ 5 million

With odds that are now dramatically cut, Anora has become the bet’s favorite for best picture, but with Oscars, which will not take place until March 2nd, we will have to wait and see if Sean Baker’s Cinderella History gets his happy ending .