2024 YR4: What to know about the asteroid that could hit the ground in the future

Flagstaff, Ariz. And Scientists around the world focus on an asteroid that has a narrow chance of hitting the ground.

Here’s what to know about the asteroid, as well as the role one Arizona Observatory plays in observing that space rock.

What is the name of the asteroid?

Per. NASAs WebsiteThe asteroid is called 2024 YR4. The asteroid is described as a near earth change, defined as “an asteroid in a course that brings it into the Earth’s region of the solar system.”

According to For Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, 2024 by a NASA-funded telescope in Chile.

What cneos say:

“The object had a close approach to the Earth on December 25, which is why it was bright enough to be discovered in the asteroid surveys,” read part of CNEOS ‘website.

How many asteroids almost soil is there?

Talk from Cnees Show that from August 1980 to February 6, 2025, researchers have discovered a total of 37,593 near land change.

How big is 2024 YR4?

Big Picture View:

CNEOS ‘Site says the asteroid is “most likely in the range 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 feet) in size.” Officials say the estimate is based on measurements of the brightness of the asteroid.

“The size cannot be further limited without thermal infrared observations, radar observations or images from a spacecraft that can closely approach the asteroid,” says Cneos’ website.

What is the chance of 2024 years hitting the Earth?

On February 7, NASA officials said the chance of the asteroid affecting the soil stands at 2.3%.

Earlier on January 29, Officers of International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) said That the effect of effect was 1.3% on December 22, 2032.

What iawns say:

“While there is great uncertainty in whether the asteroid will affect the soil if an influence arises, it will be on this date,” read the document.

Where will the asteroid hit if it hits the ground?

Officials with International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) state There is a “influence risk of influence” for 2024 years.

According to the document, it extends the risk of impacting risk in 2024 years “” over the Eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arab Sea and South Asia. “

If the asteroid hit, the document says “explosion damage could occur as far as 50 km (~ 31.07 mi) from the place of influence.”

Once again, it should be noted that NASA officials, on February 7, said the chance of 2024 years has an impact on Earth at 2.3%.

Which astronom says:

“(It is) does not cause extermination events,” Nick Moskovitz said with Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff. “It’s not ‘the end of the dinosaurs-like’ influence, but it would have significant regional consequences.”

What do scientists do to get more data about the asteroid?

According to Iawn, “Future observations will reduce the uncertainty in 2024 YR4’s orbit and influence probability.”

By the numbers:

According to people with Iawn, the asteroid will be observable through the beginning of April, after which it becomes too weak to be observed from Earth until June 2028.

What is the next one:

NASA officials say, with several observations of the asteroid’s orbit, that the impact probability becomes better known.

“It is possible that the Asteroid 2024 YR4 will be excluded as a hazard of impact, as has happened with many other items that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk, maintained by the NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies,” NASA’s Web site read .

Local Perspective:

Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff is one of only three or four telescopes in the world that are currently monitoring the path of asteroid.

“Our hope is that as we continue to monitor, we see that in 2032 the track out of the ground and the probability would go to zero,” Moskovitz said.

Moskovitz said the equipment needed to see the asteroid has changed.

“Right now we are kind of in this transition, where the telescopes like the telescope 4 m telescope 1617 meters across these are only telescopes in the world that can see it,” said Moskovitz.

What would happen if scientists decide the asteroid will hit the ground?

Once again, it should be noted that NASA officials from February 7, 2025, set the probability of 2024 years of 2.3%.

Even if the odds fail humanity, scientists have a certain level of experience defending the planet against asteroid strikes.

Dig deeper:

Moskovitz and researchers from the University of Arizona and Northern Arizona University were integrated into A mission Called “Double Asteroid Redirecting Test” (DART).

According to Mission’s WebsiteThe Dart Mission is NASA’s demonstration of a technology aimed at adjusting the speed and path of an asteroid by beating it with a spacecraft described as a “kinetic influence.”

The mission involved sending a spacecraft to an asteroid named Dimorphos. The spacecraft hit Dimorphos in September 2022, and officials said based on subsequent measurements of the asteroid, the almost head-on collision shortened the time it took for Dimosphos to circling a larger asteroid named Didymos with 33 minutes.

Room missions take many years of planning, but Moskovitz believes it can streamline to planetary defense.

“We could simply copy darts,” Moskovitz said. “We’ve done it before, down to the last screw. This wouldn’t take 10 years to do.”

Explanations and Rum Flag Staffnews