Four things to watch for in Packers-Lions on Prime Video, NFL+

The NFL’s best division is heating up.

On Thursday, arguably the league’s best team, the 11-1 Lions, face the 9-3 Packers at Detroit’s Ford Field. The Lions won the first matchup in Green Bay on Nov. 3, and another victory would strengthen their grip on the NFC North.

These are also two of the hottest teams in the NFL. Lions haven’t lost since Week 2, winners of 10 straight. The Packers’ last loss was in Week 9.

Green Bay’s offense has cut down on turnovers and held its last three opponents to 19 or fewer points since their Week 10 bye. The Lions have also played good defense of late, holding their last six opponents to an average of less than 14 points, but the damage is mounting on that unit.

In the first meeting, the Lions took advantage of the Packers’ mistakes — penalties, dropped passes, a pick-six — at a rainy Lambeau Field. Detroit had 150 fewer yards of offense back in Week 7, but played a much cleaner ball game, building a 24-3 lead in the third quarter and controlling the time of possession.

The Lions can clinch a playoff spot strictly with a win Thursday night, but they can also lose to the Packers and still earn a spot in Week 14. The Packers can’t win in Week 14, but winning in Detroit could open the door for them to steal division down the home field.

Here are four things to watch for when the Packers visit the Lions Thursday night on Prime Video and NFL+:

1) Packers must avoid self-inflicted errors as last time. The Lions have a way of making opponents hurt themselves, and it was on full display in Week 9. Green Bay moved the ball all game, but shot itself in the foot far too often. The Packers committed 10 penalties, six of them on offense. There were at least half a dozen dropped passes. A missed field goal. Spins on blocking assignments in short yardage situations. And Jordan Love committed the big doozie, a brutal pick-six just before halftime that put the Packers behind the 8-ball. The Packers continued the bye after that game and have a more efficient outfit. They have had just 15 penalties and one turnover in three games since. Kicker Brandon McManus has also been perfect since then. They have been much better on third downs the past two games and have converted 50%. It’s hard enough to beat the Lions, a team that Green Bay has now lost to five of the last six times, without making a series of mistakes. But a clean sweep will give the Packers a shot in this game, especially after the Lions looked vulnerable against the Bears at home on Thanksgiving.

2) Lions defense hopes to hold together amid injuries. You can’t fault much of what the Lions have done this season, especially with their vast improvement on the defensive side of the ball. However, injuries are starting to pile up, threatening the depth, talent and effectiveness of this unit. Aidan Hutchinson and several other front-seven contributors are out for the regular season. Linebacker Alex Anzalone and others are likely to be out for several more weeks. And on the latest front, Levi Onwuzurike and Joshua Paschal have been excluded. All three levels of Detroit’s defense have been decimated by injury. The Lions have been fortunate not to face a pile of offensive firepower recently, but this is the type of game where it could really hurt. Ex-Packers pass rusher Za’Darius Smith will be counted on for an expanded role, noting the Green Bay issue Kerby Joseph will chase Love’s passport all night. But make no mistake, coordinator Aaron Glenn will have his hands full handling this Packers offense with his thin ranks on defense. Love can get hot quickly. He has six targets with 21 or more catches. Josh Jacobs has also been a dual-threat workhorse.

3) Packers must win the revenue margin. The Lions don’t turn the ball over often, but they are a different offense when they do. They have had six games with zero turnovers and six games with one or more. In the turnover-free games, they average 40.2 points; in the other six games, that average drops to 23.7 points. Of course, the Texans are the only team to force more than two turnovers against the Lions this season, all five coming on Jared Goff picks. In Green Bay’s win over the Lions in Detroit last season, Goff threw for 332 yards and two TDs, but the Packers sacked him three times and forced him to lose three fumbles. On Thanksgiving, the Packers were fired Tua Tagovailoa five times in the 30-17 victory. Even with Tua’s big passing game (365 yards, two TDs), the negative plays tipped the game. The same thing could happen on Thursday night. The Packers will likely need to steal a possession or two or hold the Lions down in the red zone. Getting into a shootout with the lions might not be the best idea. Love has had his first two turnover-free games in the past two weeks, and Jacobs hasn’t fumbled in 10 games. They will be the key couriers on Thursday night.

4) The Lions’ running game could be the key to victory. Goff is having a terrific season and has as good a top receiving trio as any QB throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. But the Lions also boast perhaps the league’s best 1-2 punch at running back with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbswho combined for 138 rush yards against Green Bay in the first meeting. Green Bay was able to cover most of the big plays against them, but the duo constantly chipped in for runs at nearly five yards a clip. Each averages more than 80 yards from scrimmage per game. game. Slow down and the Packers will have a chance in this game. The Packers have allowed 120 or more rushing yards in each of their three losses. In the other four wins, in which they gave up 120-plus on the ground, the Packers won by a combined 14 points. Fortunately, their run defense has been excellent the last two games, allowing a total of 83 rush yards and zero TDs against the Packers and Dolphins.