Nuggets expect Celtics to make 50 3-pointers ‘no matter what you do’

The last two NBA champions couldn’t be more different in terms of the shots they prefer to take.

The Boston Celtics comfortably led the league in 3-point attempts per game with 42.5 last season, won their 18th banner and then took the trend to new extremes. They are averaging 50.2 attempts this season, the most in NBA history and six more than any other team in 2024-25.

The Denver Nuggets are also leaning further into their biggest strength. They lead the league in points in the paint with 58.8 per game. match. In the halfcourt offense, they play through Nikola Jokic more than ever. He touches the ball 110.4 times per night, 10 more than his NBA-leading total last season. In transition, they send rams at the rim in Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook. They are the only team to average 20 at regular intervals.

Both recent champions are elite at what they do best.

The only issue Denver may be forced to contend with on Tuesday (8 p.m., TNT) is math.

Boston’s offensive focal point is worth three points. Denver’s is worth two.

The Nuggets (20-14) continue to average the fewest 3-point attempts in the NBA, at 31.1, almost exactly in line with the last two seasons. Still, they have the fourth-best offensive rating in the league, scoring 117 points per 100 possessions. They stay afloat in the loaded Western Conference in fourth place (as of Monday) despite wildly inconsistent defensive efforts night after night.

But against teams as perimeter-dependent as Boston, the math can take a toll. It certainly did when Denver faced Cleveland twice in December. The Cavaliers are fifth in 3-point attempts and they came up with 48 in both matchups.

The Nuggets attempted 55 between those two games combined. They were swept in the season series by a total of 26 points. Both contests were within reach, but they lost the 3-point line by 72.

The Celtics are a more extreme manifestation of the same threat. In late December, Malone compared the two Eastern Conference powers when he acknowledged that coaches around the league might have to start living with what opponents generate at the rim to prevent 3s.

“Some of these guards, the pull-up three is becoming like a layup for guys,” Malone said afterward, adding that “Boston has a luxury of (having) five 3-point shooters on the court when they’re healthy . Five.”

That would be the starting lineup that carried Boston through most of last season to a championship: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis. But even with Brown and Holiday struggling from the rim this season, the Celtics have lethal options off the bench. Payton Pritchard’s 42.4% clip is the best in the NBA among all players who have attempted 245 or more 3s. He has taken 302.

So as the Nuggets prepared for the challenge with a practice on Monday, acceptance was part of the message.

“No matter what you do, they’re going to make 50 3s. I really believe that,” Malone said. “Nineteen of their 50 3s they make are off the jump. They shoot pull-up 3s in transition. They shoot pull-up 3s in the pick-and-roll. That’s their thing offensively. “We just want to put up a lot of 3s.” … And they shoot the same number of 3s in wins and losses. But their percentage is very different. The point is, they want to get 50 up. That’s just how they’re wired. But it is the quality of three that they rise. You cannot be down on the floor inside the 3-point line in transition. In pick-and-rolls, you can’t be down the floor giving Tatum, Brown, Pritchard, Holiday (and) White easy walk-in 3s.”

Against most teams, Malone likes to mix up defensive coverages. He often emphasizes the importance of giving an opposing star player another look. When the Nuggets faced the Spurs last weekend, they switched more often than usual. In a comeback win in Sacramento last month, they took the Kings out of rhythm by going to a zone in the fourth quarter.

But how much can the Nuggets afford to mix things up against a team like Boston? If Jokic doesn’t defend every pick-and-roll at the level of the screen, poor screen navigation by Denver’s guards could result in the flurry of pull-ups that Malone alluded to on Monday.

“When you’re at the level (on the screen) and they have a roll … you need somebody to take that roll,” the 10th-year coach said in December. “That leaves one guy to guard two and that’s where you have to have KYP (know-your-personnel) discipline and really just a huge fly-around mentality where it might not always be perfect but when you work hard and give second and third efforts, good things will happen.”

Denver was the only team to sweep its season series against Boston in 2023-24. In both wins, the Nuggets held the eventual champions below their season average in 3-pointers — even when the attempts were sky high. This year, Boston is up from 16.5 to 18.4 makes per game (36.7%).

If both teams attempt their standard number of 3s and both teams convert at league average efficiency (35.9%), the Celtics will outscore the Nuggets by 21 points from beyond the arc.

“You’re not going to be able to stop them from shooting them,” Russell Westbrook said. “But you just have to be able to make them tough shots. That’s it. Make them tough shots and rebound the ball. And then do what we do.”