The Baylor men’s basketball expert previews the Arizona Wildcats game and makes a prediction

To this point in Arizona’s time in the Big 12, it has faced opponents that are either fairly new to the league, like the Wildcats, or those not historically considered among the league’s top teams.

That all changes Tuesday night when UA hosts Baylor, which for the past decade has been one of the best programs in the country, let alone the league. The Bears (11-4, 3-1) have been ranked in the Top 10 at least once in each of the last six seasons, reaching No. 1 11 times since 2017 and won the 2021 NCAA title.

This year’s Baylor team began the season ranked No. 8, but comes to Tucson as no. 25.

To better understand this enemy, we reached out to Matt Wilson of Oso for a little insight and a game prediction. Below are his attractive answers to our nasty questions:

AZ Desert Swarm: Baylor played a challenging non-conference schedule with five Top 100 KenPom opponents, and while it wasn’t as rough as Arizona’s early results, the Bears were beaten handily in a pair. What did you learn about this team from the preseason?

Matt Wilson: “That’s where you have to balance a person’s expectations, the fan base’s expectations, and what’s actually happening. Personally? I learned that VJ Edgecombe is going to impact games in a different way than just scoring the ball. This is a weird lesson, because with former 5-star recruits in the Baylor sphere, you can at least count on the young stars to score the ball but still develop in other areas.Not VJ.

“I think the fan base is learning again that a tough non-conference is just that… it’s a LOT of being tough. The team is a LOT of learning lessons that aren’t always pretty to learn. We fans were lucky enough to see a 2020-2021 team learn those lessons without too much of an impact on the results, and we saw the same core learn even more with even LESS impact on the record.I think some have a warped idea of ​​what to expect when going on the road to play a program (emphasis on program) like Gonzaga or UConn.

“Personally, I’ve learned that I’m still a sucker for the Scott Drew Zone Defense, but I also learned vividly again that it’s frustrating to see newer players get used to it. Overall, this is a Baylor team, like many other teams across the country, trying to find themselves.”

The Bears’ defense has looked much better since the switch to league play, with Iowa State the only team shooting well. What led to this improvement and how do you think the D will fare against Arizona?

“The biggest concern from national pundits (and rightly so) was the defense. If you look at the previous games this season, that’s absolutely correct. After a few games against offensively challenged teams, I think there is both some statistical inflation and an improvement.

This team is determined to switch as much as possible, and for that to work, frontcourt players must be disciplined and backcourt players must be dedicated to rotating back quickly. It has looked better. It has also looked better against Cincinnati and Arizona State.

With five players averaging in double figures, this looks like a pretty balanced team. Who runs the offense and what makes them so effective?

“I don’t think we actually know yet, which is a concern, but there are definitely early sets for Norchad Omier every match. I’d like to see Jeremy Roach take more authority and make more plays, but it just hasn’t happened yet. I think the most accurate answer here is “Baylor runs their offense through offensive rebounds.”

In the overtime win at ASU, Baylor played six guys for more than 30 minutes with one logging 41. How much is depth and fatigue an issue?

“Scott Drew has always been a fan of a short, short bench. Jason Asemota has earned more minutes in Jalen Celestine’s absence and Langston Love’s time away with another ankle injury, but has looked serviceable. Robert Wright III, who I personally think will end up being Baylor’s best point guard ever (not a typo), is also learning at a blazing fast pace.

“Ideally, you want to get the love back as soon as possible. Celestine would definitely provide more shooting, but I think this rotation will peak at 7-8ish max in any configuration.”

This is Scott Drew’s 22nd season at Baylor, where he revitalized the program and won a championship. What has kept him in Waco when there have undoubtedly been opportunities to leave?

“Fit. I think it’s mostly family and fit. No school will ‘fit’ what Scott Drew is and is no better than Baylor University. His family is here, his home is here. He knows it and everyone others know he can win here.Kentucky fans won’t try to burn his house down here.

Prediction time: Will Arizona stay perfect in its first season in the Big 12 or will Baylor score a big road win? Give us a score prediction.

“With as close as that Arizona State game ended up being, I think either Baylor wins by double digits with a huge response or loses by 10 on the road against a well-coached and talented team. I’d bet my money on the latter. Still more learning to do before this Baylor team can pull this off.”