UFC 311 fight card: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

On January 17, 2025By Littum

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 06: (L-R) Opponents Islam Makhachev of Russia and Arman Tsarukyan of … (+) Georgia face each other during the UFC 311 press conference at the MGM Grand Garden Arena on December 6, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Zuffa LLC

The UFC presents its first pay-per-view card on the promotion’s 2025 schedule, UFC 311, on Saturday, January 18. The event will take place at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. Two title matches headline the event. In the main event, Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch. While in the UFC 311 co-main event, bantamweight titleholder Merab Dvalishvili defends his belt against Umar Nurmagomedov. We look at the odds for the UFC 311 fight card main event and offer our preview, picks and predictions for that bout.

UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2

SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA – APRIL 20: (L-R) Islam Makhachev of Russia celebrates his victory over … (+) Arman Tsarukyan of Russia in their lightweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at the Yubileyny Sports Palace on April 20, 2019 in Saint Petersburg, Russia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

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Since their first meeting, which took place in 2019 and Makhachev won by unanimous decision, Makhachev (26-1) has compiled a 9-0 record with seven finishes (five submissions, two knockouts) and two decisions. Makhachev captured the vacant UFC lightweight title in October 2022 with a submission victory over former UFC 155-pound titleholder Charles Oliveira.

Makhachev has defended his crown three times since defeating Oliveira. His first two title defenses were a decision victory and knockout of then-UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. In his latest outing, Makhachev submitted former UFC interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 302.

Makhachev has earned fight-night bonus awards for each of his UFC title fights.

Tsarukyan (22-3) is 9-1 since his loss to Makhachev, which came in his UFC debut. He bounced back from that defeat with five straight wins before dropping a decision to Mateusz Gamrot in June 2022.

After the loss to Gamrot, Tsarukyan ran off four straight wins with two knockouts and two decisions. He is coming off a split decision victory over Oliveira at UFC 300 in April.

UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event Betting Odds: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2

ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – OCTOBER 21: Islam Makhachev of Russia reacts after his knockout … (+) victory against Alexander Volkanovski of Australia in the UFC lightweight championship bout during the UFC 294 event at the Etihad Arena on October 21, 2023 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

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According to BetOnline, Makhachev was the betting favorite when the odds opened. The champion was listed at -255, while Tsarukyan was the +215 betting underdog.

Today, Makhachev checks in at -330. Tsarukyan is currently listed at +255.

The final odds for their first fight had Makhachev entering the Octagon as -300 betting favorite over +240 Tsarukyan.

UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 Significant statistics

Makhachev lands 2.65 striking strikes per minute with an accuracy of 59 percent. The champion absorbs 1.54 significant strikes per minute and his strike defense is 61 percent. Makhachev racks up 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a success rate of 53 percent. Meanwhile, his takedown defense is 90 percent.

Tsarukyan lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute with a success rate of 48 percent. The challenger’s strike defense is at 53 percent, and he absorbs 1.84 significant strikes per minute. Tsarukyan averages 3.25 takedowns per fight. 15 minutes and has a takedown success rate of 37 percent. His takedown defense is 75 percent.

In their first matchup, Makhachev landed 14 of 20 significant strike attempts while connecting on four of his nine takedown attempts. Makhachev had 6:06 control time. His total strikes landed was 47 of 53 attempts. As for Tsarukyan, he landed 13 of 43 significant strikes and 60 of his 90 total strike attempts. Tsarukyan went 1 for 12 in takedowns and had 1:47 control time.

UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 predictions and picks

Makhachev and Tsarukyan have both improved since their first meeting, but the champion remains the better all-around competitor. Tsarukyan will give Makhachev a tough fight, but it’s hard to see anywhere that the challenger can catch Makhachev slipping. The betting choice is for Makhachev to win a decision.

UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Makhachev Vs. Tsarukyan 1 Recap

When these two first stared each other down from across the Octagon, Makhachev was 16-1 overall and 4-1 in the UFC. As for Tsarukyan, he had a 13-1 overall mark and was making his UFC debut.

When these two first stared each other down from across the Octagon, Makhachev was 16-1 overall and 4-1 in the UFC. As for Tsarukyan, he had a 13-1 overall mark and was making his UFC debut. Tsarukyan looked to establish his striking and distance Makhachev with kicks early on, but the two quickly entered a wrestling match with both fighters working well with pressure against the fence before Makhachev scored a neat takedown that put Tsarukyan on the back. However, he did not accept the position and returned to his feet.

Tsarukyan then responded with a takedown of his own, but like Makhachev, he was unable to establish ground position until his opponent got to his feet. The two traded head kick attempts from distance to open the second stanza. As in the first round, they mixed up two takedown attempts with their strikes, with Makhachev getting the better of those attempts thanks to his chain breaking and relentless attacks. Once on the mat, Tsarukyan looked for a kimura but couldn’t stop the submission attempt. Tsarukyan then got back to his feet and the two engaged in a fight against the fence for the remainder of the round.

SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA – APRIL 20: (L-R) Islam Makhachev of Russia checks the body of Arman … (+) Tsarukyan of Russia in their lightweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at the Yubileyny Sports Palace on April 20, 2019 in St. Petersburg, Russia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

The third round mirrored the first 10 minutes of the contest, with both men active in the striking department early on before returning to their wrestling. As in the first two rounds, Makhachev had more success with two takedowns and 2:31 control time.

The fast 15-minute match went to Makhachev with scores of 30-27, 30-27 and 29-28. The contest took “Fight of the Night” honors and established both men as potential title contenders. The UFC commentary team, who had not seen Tsarukyan in the Octagon, were especially effusive in their praise of his efforts in his UFC debut.

The fight ended with Makhachev landing 47 of 53 total strikes while going four for nine in takedown attempts. He added 6:06 control time. Meanwhile, Tsarukyan landed 60 of 90 total strikes and had one takedown on 12 attempts while totaling 1:47 control time. Neither man logged a submission or a reversal.

Revisiting their first meeting, it’s no surprise to see these two running things back in a title fight in 2024.

UFC 311 fight card: Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov odds and predictions

UFC 311 fight card date

Saturday 18 January 2025

UFC 311 fight card standings

Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California

UFC 311 fight card time and how to watch and stream

Early tip-off: 6:00 PM ET – ESPN+

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET – ESPNews

PPV Card: 10:00 PM ET – ESPN+ PPV

The UFC 311 fight card is the first pay-per-view even on the UFC schedule for 2025. Stay tuned for more coverage from UFC 311, as well as fight night results, reactions, recaps.