Tennis’ best game for women’s action on January 17

On By Littum

Today’s Tennis Picks and Predictions for Day 6 of the 2025 Australian Open:

Australian Open 2025 has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The best WTA players in the world are in Melbourne for the first major of the season and we are not far from the part of the tournament where every match will feature household names. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite picks for Day 6 of the matches on the women’s side, which will be played on Thursday, January 16th and Friday, January 17th for us in the USA. The day will feature players like Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka in action, so you won’t want to miss it. Also check out my men’s best picks for Day 6.

I would also strongly suggest that you return to this story before the matches start – or check the selections page regularly. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line moves and add to my map a few hours before the matches begin. That said, I’ll be adding picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles when I’m done. Gill Alexander who does a great job of handicapping tennis at A numbers game (MF from 10 a.m. ET to 12 p.m. ET), also posts his tennis picks on the picks page!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting on!

Record in 2025: 53-41 (+10.03 units)

Belinda Bencic vs. Naomi Osaka

Osaka is coming off a big win over Karolina Muchova. It’s a win over a player that many people like to make runs at every major. So the popular thought will be that Osaka is back to her Slam-winning form. Right now, this is what our VSiN tennis betting is showing. Many people are running to support Osaka, and there is a lot of money on the four-time major champion. But I think it’s risky to back popular favorites, and I definitely think it’s a bad idea to back Osaka against Bencic. The Swiss star has dropped in the rankings, but that’s only because she took time off for the birth of her child. She is previously no. 4 in the world and is 3-1 in WTA matches against Osaka. She has also looked pretty good to start the 2025 season.

Osaka is a better server than Bencic, but that’s one of the only real advantages I’d give her. Outside of the serve and raw power from the baseline, Bencic has many edges against Osaka. She’s a smarter player, she has more in her toolkit to throw opponents off her feet, and she’s a much better mover. All of this should mean that this is a very close match – to say the least. But I really think we’re going to see Bencic find a way through. She is yet to drop a set in this tournament and she now enters with very little to lose. Meanwhile, Osaka is back in a position where people expect her to win. She hasn’t handled it so well in the past.

Game: Bencic ML (+116)

RELATED: See my top picks for the men’s action on Day 6 of the Australian Open!

Marta Kostyuk vs. Paula Badosa

Badosa has been slightly more consistent than Kostyuk in recent years, but the Ukrainian’s very best is good enough to cause the Spaniard problems. Last year, Kostyuk reached his highest Elo rating of 1986.4 in April. It was part of a run where she looked like a legitimate top-10 player on tour and turned in several impressive runs. Badosa also happened to have some big stretches last year, including the run to the US Open. But Kostyuk looks much closer to his peak than Badosa is right now. After a somewhat tough victory over Nao Hibino in the first round, Kostyuk won 6-3, 6-0 over Jule Niemeier. It was an outrageous performance from Kostyuk in pretty much every area of ​​the game. Badosa was also quite dominant in her second round match as she won 6-1, 6-0 against Talia Gibson. But that opponent had nothing to do in the second round, and Badosa wasn’t that good against Xinyu Wang in the first round.

I just can’t help but think that Badosa shouldn’t be expected to run Kostyuk off the field. Kostyuk is one of the best returners in the women’s game, so she should be able to put some pressure on the Badosa serve. And I’m interested to see how Badosa handles it. We’re not too far removed from her collapse against Emma Navarro at the US Open, and stuff like that weighs on you in big moments.

These two also coincidentally met at the Australian Open in both 2019 and 2022. When they met in 2019, Badosa took a 7-6 (6), 6-3 victory. But Kostyuk was only a teenager. In 2022, Kostyuk took a set from Badosa and had a shot to win in the third. And Kostyuk was up 6-2, 1-0 before Badosa retired when they met at Wimbledon. She is now 22 years old and ready to compete in matches like this. And I would go so far as to say that I prefer her baseline game over Badosa’s. So if Kostyuk can just put in a decent serving effort, she should win a set in this one. I also sprinkle out the money line. There is not much that separates these two. This should be the year we see it.

Bet: Kostyuk +1.5 sets (-149) & Kostyuk ML (+195 – 0.5 units)

Added plays

I can’t guarantee there will be more choices here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every few hours. I will add my extra plays there and then throw them in this story after.

VSiN Tennis Betting Splits

Tennis odds

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