Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano: Odds, Full Match Preview and Prediction | UFC 311

On January 18, 2025By Littum

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) lightweight veterans Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano goes to war this weekend (Sat. Jan. 18, 2025) at UFC 311 from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.

Dariush is still trying to recover from a rough 2023. His career-best streak went up in smoke in just four minutes against Charles Oliveira (see highlights), then Arman Tsarukyan stopped him in just 64 seconds a few months later (watch it here). Dariush was forced to start all over again, and it took a year to recover from the losses and returns in a must-win situation.

Moicano is conversely on a hot streak. The former featherweight contender has established himself as a real force at 155 pounds, picking up four straight wins with a trio of stoppages ( like this one ). He came through as the underdog several times to regain momentum and this could be a huge moment for him.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis

Dariush vs. Moicano betting

Beneil Dariush win: +170
Beneil Dariush via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Beneil Dariush via submission: TBD
Beneil Dariush via decision: TBD
Renato Moicano win: -205
Renato Moicano via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Renato Moicano via submission: TBD
Renato Moicano via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKing’s Sportsbook

This is how Dariush wins

For a moment, quite a few fight fans were excited about the prospect of Islam Makhachev vs. Dariush. The southpaw is a great counter wrestler with tremendous jiu-jitsu, as well as punishing kickboxing. His major flaws are more physical than technical as Dariush has never been the most durable challenger.

At the highest level, it tends to mean a lot.

This is a very reasonable style match up for Dariush. Moicano is a good striker with a nice jab, but he’s not really a knockout artist. Dariush should be able to stand up to his shots and he is the more explosive forward of the two. When Dariush gets his left side offense – left overhand, left kick and left knee making up the bulk of his offense – flowing, he’s really hard to deal with.

Moicano is not immune to harming himself. If Dariush starts fast and finds a home for his left hand early, he can get back into the win column, which is great style.

This is how Moicano wins

Moicano is an absolute gamer. The jiu-jitsu ace has an excellent jab and powerful kicks, as well as a really solid clinch wrestling attack. Perhaps more than anything else, he’s proven himself to be a true gamer, willing to work his way through punishment and outlast his opposition.

If Dariush is still at his most dangerous, Moicano’s best bet is to outlast him. As mentioned, Dariush has always struggled a bit with the physical. Moicano has the skills to (relatively) match him in all areas, meaning he can push a high pace without getting completely melted in the process (hopefully).

I’d love to see Moicano charge forward and blast power kicks. He should try to build combinations and finish with takedown attempts. Although they are difficult to finish, the goal should be a tough fight that wears on the Dariush gas tank. In time, he’ll likely start landing more right hands or take downs if and when Dariush starts to slow down.

Dariush vs. Moicano Prediction

The style match up here seems to favor Dariush, especially over three rounds. Moicano probably doesn’t have the explosive shot necessary to drag him to the floor, and Dariush is the more explosive forward by a fair margin. A few years ago, this is a really easy choice.

today? It’s a bit more complicated. Dariush is 35 years old and coming off a back-to-back knockout loss over a year ago, whereas Moicano is fighting actively and beating really good competition. Moicano may be 35 himself, but momentum and confidence really matter in this sport. The Brazilian is riding high and it feels like he has what it takes to pull through some tough moments and impose his will on a fighter on his way out of the Top 10.

Prediction: Moicano via decision

LIVE! Watch UFC 311 PPV on ESPN+ here!

LIGHT WEIGHT RE-FIGHT! The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) kicks off its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Saturday, January 18 with its seemingly unstoppable lightweight champion, Islam Makhachevdefending his 155-pound crown against top-seeded division contenders, Arman Tsarukyan, in the five-round main event. In UFC 311’s championship co-headliner from inside the Intuit Dome in Inglewood (Los Angeles), California, undefeated 135-pound contender, Umar Nurmagomedov, challenger newly minted bantamweight title holder, Merab Dvalishvili, for the undisputed crown. UFC 311 will also feature exciting returns from former light heavyweight champions Jiri Prochazka and Jamal Hillas well as the decisive middleweight showdown between Kevin Holland and Reinier De Ridder, and so much more! UFC 311s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (Preliminary Map) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-smashing action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will provide LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of it all UFC 311 fight card right herestarting with ESPN+/ESPNEWS Online “Prelims” matches scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ETbefore the start time of the main card at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 311: “Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2” news and notes, be sure to hit our extensive event archive to the right here.