New England blizzard forecast to dump a few inches to half a foot

The snow is expected to start falling between 16.00 and at 6 p.m., Sunday in Greater Boston and Eastern Massachusetts, will be over at 07.00 on Monday

Here’s the general setup: An area of ​​low pressure begins to take shape across the Southeast or just off the Carolina coast Sunday morning and begins to climb up a stalled frontal boundary over New England. As it approaches, the storm will draw in warmer air and moisture from the Atlantic, while cold air is drawn in from the north.

Moisture rising from the south and the steep temperature difference will set a solid rain-snow line with this storm. Unfortunately, we won’t know for sure where that rain-snow line will fall until the weekend comes and we have a clearer picture. It could be set up south of New England or set up between Boston and the Cape.

The final storm track will also determine whether New England sees modest snowfall of 2 to 4 inches or higher accumulations of possibly 5 inches or more. But the region, especially across much of southern New England, will certainly see some snow on the ground Monday morning.

Meanwhile, a winter storm watch is issued for areas west of I-495 in Massachusetts as well as southern Vermont and most of Connecticut.

The details will be sorted out over the next 24 hours, but these are the expected snowfall amounts right now, taking the various models into account:

Should the track bring the storm closer to New England, we could potentially be in for the biggest storm of the season, with much of southern New England picking up 5 to 8 inches of snow.

The strength of the cold front will determine whether or not the storm is pushed further to the coast. Take a look at how the Euro and GFS models are tracking this system below.

The GFS model has the storm moved closer to New England, which would bring heavier snow during a shorter window, meaning 5 to 8 inches of snow, with the bulk of it concentrated along coastal New England.

Here’s where the GFS places the core of the storm cutting across Cape Cod around 20 on Sunday, putting Boston in the snow zone.

The Euro modelhowever, the storm has shifted slightly to the south, which would bring lighter accumulations of 2 to 4 inches of snow across New England.

The Globe Weather HQ model combines elements from Euro, GFS and others. This would push Boston towards a more wintry mix and reduce the amount of snow for the city.

Still, other models appear to be more on the side of the euro, predicting lighter snow totals, according to Globe meteorologist Dave Epstein:

We will continue to monitor this potential storm and continue to update the impacts, but be ready to break out the shovel Monday morning.

The last time the Boston area saw at least 4 inches of snow on the ground was just last month. A little more than 5 inches fell on December 20, breaking a long snow-free stretch that lasted over 1,000 days. The area saw 8.5 inches on February 25, 2022.

Once this storm system moves out, New Englanders will face extremely cold weather as a blast of arctic air settles in later Monday. It will feel cold outside as temperatures struggle to climb out of the teens. Many areas will experience single digit and even near zero temperatures Tuesday morning.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.