Tracks a blizzard late Sunday and the coldest chills of the season next week

There’s plenty to discuss in our forecast as we look ahead through the holiday weekend and into next week, including blizzard risk either over our area or just to our southeast, the coldest chill of the season and snow effect on the lake for Nordland.

Before we get into the details, here’s a look at your holiday weekend forecast:

The system that you see pass through Saturday afternoon into Saturday night should provide mostly wet snow mixed with rain at lower elevations with mostly wet snow over higher elevations. The best chance for accumulations worse than some slush would be the Tug Hill Plateau and the Adirondacks.

Now let’s get to our next big weather makers:

All week long I’ve been tracking the threat of a blizzard passing either well southeast of our area, possibly over our area, or somewhere in between.

Looking ahead to Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, I have created preliminary maps of potential snowfall impacts.

Here are the maps of our local area and across the North East:

You may notice that there is a sharp gradient of low to medium to high to very high impact across parts of central and eastern New York and Pennsylvania.

Part of the reason there is uncertainty is that the system that will affect us is still some way off.

See below:

In addition, it must cross two mountain ranges, including the Rockies and the Appalachians.

When that happens, computer models typically have trouble figuring out exactly how to develop them.

We will closely monitor the development of this system over the weekend.

Whatever happens with that blizzard, the coldest temperatures and chills of the season are on the way late Monday night into Tuesday morning and potentially again late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The latest information tells me that we should expect wind chills generally as low as -10 to -15 degrees (below zero). Some spots can approach -15 to 20 degrees below zero.

Important reminders about frostbite (on exposed skin) so you can make independent decisions about being outside:
–You can get frostbite in 30 minutes when the wind chill is -20 degrees (below zero).
–You can get frostbite in 20 minutes when the wind chill is -30 degrees (below zero).
–You can get frostbite in 10 minutes when the wind chill is -40 degrees (below zero).

We expect at least a “cold weather advisory” to be issued. This is the replacement for a “wind chill advisory”. Either way, the meaning is the same.

If cold weather advisories are issued in your area, here’s what to do:
–If you must be outdoors, use common sense and dress warmly.
–Make sure all exposed skin is covered. If possible, avoid prolonged exposure to cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia.
– Do not leave pets outside

During the coldest air of the season, it looks like parts of Jefferson, Lewis and far northern Oswego counties will likely see a heavy band of lake effect snow. When you have lake effect snow, at the same time you have very cold temperatures, the brine mixture will not be as effective at melting snow. It will create worse driving conditions in these counties.

Stay with the CNYcentral Weather Authority team for updates!