ATP Australian Open best bets including Shelton vs Musetti

ATP Australian Open 1/16 finals

Moutet – Tien: 18.01.2025 05:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Corentin Moutet has won four of his last five matches. This is his first tournament of the season. In the preliminary round of the Australian Open, Moutet upset Popyrin in four sets after losing the first set 4–6. Yesterday, in the second round, Moutet won over Krueger in four sets. Once again, Corentin lost the first set but kept fighting and turned the match around. His last appearance at the Australian Open was in 2023, when he lost in the second round to Cerundolo in four sets.

Eleven Tien has won five games in a row. The young American is one of the biggest sensations in Melbourne. He successfully qualified for the main draw tournament. Tien defeated Ugo Carabelli in five tight sets in the opening main draw round. Yesterday, in the second round, Learner upset Medvedev in five sets and spent almost five hours on court. In the deciding set, Medvedev was ahead 6-5 and serving for the match, but Tien was calm and successfully got the biggest win of his young career.

Best bet

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 match, but we disagree. Tien spent nine hours on the field in the last two games. He is used to the Challenger Tour level and we believe his body will be tired. Moutet loves to play long rallies and with his experience playing at the highest level, we expect him to control this match.

Having said that, Moutet win is a value bet.

Value bet/ best odds: Corentin Moutet to win @2.10 @bet365

Shelton – Musetti: 18.01.2025 07:00 CEST
H2H: 0-2

Ben Shelton has lost three of his last five matches. He started this season with a loss in Auckland last week. In the opening round of the Australian Open, Shelton defeated Nakashima in close straight sets. In the second round, Ben defeated Carreno-Busta in four tight sets yesterday. It will be his third appearance at the Australian Open. Last year, Ben was upset by Adrian Mannarino in the third round, losing in five close sets.

Lorenzo Musetti has won three of his last five matches. At the beginning of the season, Musetti played in Hong Kong, where he reached the quarterfinals, losing to Munar in three close sets. Here in Melbourne, Musetti won over Arnaldi in the opening round. Yesterday, in the second round, Lorenzo won over Shapovalov in straight sets. He won all the important points in the match. Last year at the Australian Open, Musetti reached the second round and lost to van Assche in five close sets.

Best bet

According to the bookies, Shelton is the slight favorite in this fight, and we agree. Ben is a better hard-court player than Musetti. He has shown solid tennis so far and we believe he will play even better as the tournament goes on. We expect him to dominate against Musetti in the third round.

Having said that, Winning Shelton is a value bet.

Value Bet/ Best Odds: Ben Shelton to Win @1.67 @bet365

Main photo credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports