NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Divisional Round Edition

The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs is in the books and the four NFC playoff teams are still alive. We have three obituaries for the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings.

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Obituary: Packers

Jordan Love was a hipster NFL MVP pick for some before the season began. He played poorly in the regular season and was abysmal in the Packers’ loss in Philly. What could he possibly have seen on this throw that he ripped it with such confidence?

In addition to poor quarterback play, the Packers also simply got their ass kicked. I mean literally. The following players were injured against the Eagles and did not return:

  1. WR’s Jayden Reed
  2. WR Romeo Doubs
  3. LG Elgton Jenkins
  4. C Josh Myers
  5. RB Josh Jacobs
  6. DT Devonte Wyatt

They were simply overwhelmed by a more physical team.

This isn’t the first time the Packers have taken a beating in the playoffs during the Matt LaFleur era. Remember in the 2019 NFC Championship Game when the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo only attempted eight passes and the Niners ran it down the Packers’ throats all night like they were a 1980s Nebraska team playing Prairie View A&M ?

The Packers are the youngest team in the NFL and Love is a talented player who is going to have a long career as an NFL starter, but this team simply wasn’t ready to compete with the big boys yet.

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Obituary: Buccaneers

With about five and a half minutes to play and a three-point deficit, the Buccaneers faced 3rd and inches at the Commanders’ 11 yard line. The Bucs tried to get the Commanders to jump offside, but rookie center Graham Barton snapped the ball too early and Bucky Irving was dropped for a 2-yard loss. A breakdown of the Bucs’ pre-snap nonsense:

They settled for a field goal and never got the ball back as the Commanders bled out the rest of the clock and kicked a walk-off field goal.

Crazy idea here: Maybe just run a play (QB sneak, maybe?) and get an inch instead of trying to rely on the other team to give you a freebie.

For as good of a defensive schemer as Todd Bowles is, the Bucs always seem to experience situational late game outs. Last season in the playoffs, for example, the Bucs could have called a timeout and had the Lions kick a game-tying field goal:

But instead Bowles said, “Meh, you guys can just run out, good luck in the next round.”

The Buccaneers won their fourth straight NFC South title this year. No team in the NFL has benefited more from playing in an otherwise brutal division. The other three NFC South teams have a combined record of 78-126 (.382) with a combined point differential of -724 during the Bucs’ four-year streak. Those other three teams will likely be bad again in 2025, so we’re right back here writing the Bucs’ post-Wild Card round obit again.

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Obituary: Vikings

There were some terrible quarterback performances in the Wild Card round of the playoffs this year, but none worse than Sam Darnold’s as he was sacked nine times by the Rams defense. The most damaging play of the game, of course, was the sack-fumble score near the end of the first half.

Darnold’s offensive line certainly wasn’t great, but all night I found myself almost sympathetically yelling, “THROW IT!” And he just didn’t. It was as if at times he was paralyzed in his pocket, afraid to let it rip.

The Vikings meekly folded a week ago in Detroit with the No. 1 seed on the line, looking largely out of the picture in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Their loss was a big win for people who wondered how this team won 14 games and stuck to their guns all season, that eventual collapse was inevitable. (I admit, the Vikings won me over at one point in the season. Oops!)

Kevin O’Connell is likely to win NFL Coach of the Year honors, an award given based on regular season success. It has also become a curse heading into the playoffs.

Year NFL Coach of the Year Playoff results
2023 Kevin Stefanski, Browns 14-45 loss to the Texans
2022 Brian Daboll, Giants 31-24 win over the Vikings
7-38 loss to the Eagles
2021 Mike Vrabel, Titans 16-19 loss to Bengals as 1 seed
2020 Kevin Stefanski, Browns 48-37 win over the Steelers
17-22 loss to the Chiefs
2019 John Harbaugh, Ravens 12-28 loss to Titans as 1 seed
2018 Matt Nagy, Bears 15-16 loss to the Eagles
2017 Sean McVay, Rams 13-26 loss to the Falcons
2016 Jason Garrett, Cowboys 31-34 loss to Packers as 1 seed

O’Connell has now lost two playoff games to teams that had negative point differentials in the regular season (h/t) Noah Becker).

My “teams that made the playoffs in 2024 but won’t in 2025” rankings:

  1. Vikings
  2. Steelers
  3. Chargers

Darnold will likely be on another team in 2025. My condolences to the team’s fans.

Cemetery

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Hierarchy

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4) Rams (11-7): The Rams entered the playoffs as the 26th ranked defense by DVOA. BUT… they have been much better lately. Throwing out the Week 18 game where the Rams sat their starters, they’ve held each of their last four opponents to double-digit points:

• At 49ers: 12-6
• At Jets: 19-9
• Cardinals: 13-9
• Vikings: 27-9

I also owe Sean McVay and the Rams an apology. I questioned why they would rest starters instead of trying to improve their seeding, which would have helped them avoid a matchup with the loser of the Vikings-Lions game week 18. Maybe they saw how trash the Vikings was, assumed they would lose to the Lions, then felt confident they could beat them in the Wild Card round? They’ll never publicly admit it if that’s the case, but kudos.

Last week: 7

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3) Commanders (13-5): No matter what happens from here, the Commanders’ season is a huge success, having won 12 regular season games plus one in the playoffs. They’ve also had a lot of happy endings:

I would have gone with the TV feed on them, not All-22, but whatever.

Last week: 6

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2) Eagles (15-3): How many games have the Eagles played this year where they won comfortably and Jalen Hurts either played poorly or didn’t need to so he wasn’t asked to throw as much? I can think of half a dozen off the top of my head. They can survive that way for one more round, but it gets real after that.

Last week: 2

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1) Lions (15-2): Heading into the weekend, the Lions could have faced the Vikings, Rams, Commanders or Packers, depending on the outcome of the Wild Card weekend. They’re currently nine-point favorites, but if I’m the Lions, the last team I want to face out of that group of teams is the Commanders. There’s something about Jayden Daniels’ unique talents that would worry me in ways the other teams wouldn’t.

Last week: 1