What we learned from Buffalo’s 27-25 win

On By Littum

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  1. Turnover, two-point attempt was the difference. The Ravens controlled long stretches of this game, including a statement drive in the second half that cut the Bills’ lead to 21-19 as Baltimore’s running game seemed to wear Buffalo down. The tide seemed to be turning at that point. But veteran tight end Mark Andrews‘ fumble – his first since 2019 – was a swipe midway through the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead. The Bills kicked a field goal where the Ravens defense did its job and gave the ball back to Lamar Jackson and the offense in an eight-point game. Jackson answered with a clutch drive, capping it off with a brilliant TD toss Isaiah Probably. But Andrews made another uncharacteristic mistake when he dropped the gift-wrapped two-point attempt – their second mistake of the game, costing them four points in a two-point loss. Combine that with Jackson’s two turnovers and it’s no shock why the Ravens came up short.
  2. Bills’ conservative offensive game plan effective but open to question. After trailing 7-0, the Bills responded well with a TD drive of their own, marching 70 yards in 11 plays and putting the Ravens back on their heels. But there were very few shooting games for the Bills on the day, preferring to lean on Josh Allen — with the legs and in the short passing game — plus James Cook and the backs. Some of that was likely to rest a taxed Bills defense that was aggressive early but started to run out of steam late. As effective as Allen was at converting first downs and running clock, their two long drives in the fourth quarter yielded just six points. On fourth-and-goal from the Baltimore 2-yard line with three-plus minutes remaining, Bills head coach Sean McDermott elected to kick a field goal, keeping it a one-possession game. Both approaches nearly cost the Bills a spot in the AFC Championship Game next Sunday in Kansas City. The Bills got it done, but it took a terrible drop to avoid overtime against a Ravens team that started to lean on them.
  3. The Bills’ linebackers are moving up. The Bills defense almost buckled at the end of the game, but it made several key plays throughout. A big difference between the Bills’ loss to the Ravens in Week 4 and Sunday’s nailbiter win was the presence of linebackers Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano. Both missed the first meeting, and the Bills’ run defense was destroyed immediately — and consistently. On Sunday, they helped contain the Ravens’ explosive running game, each making game-changing plays. Bernard’s strip of Andrews in the fourth quarter stopped the bleeding and allowed the Bills to go up eight points late. Without it, they might have lost. Milano earlier deflected Jackson’s first two-point attempt, preventing the Ravens from tying the game at 21-all. He was also effective as a blitzer, pressuring Jackson more times and forcing more incompletions. It wasn’t perfect from the Bills defense, but the early game plan paid off and the veteran LB duo was a big part of it.
  4. Ravens will struggle to live with this one. Jackson did enough to lead the Ravens to a win on Sunday, even with his mistakes. He forced his early interception and his fumble in the backfield felt pretty contrived, leading the Bills to take a two-possession lead at halftime. He can’t take those two back. The rest was mostly great as Jackson played at or near his MVP level for stretches in this game. The 88-yard drive Jackson led at the end of the game should have gone in the career and franchise highlights. And of course his pass to Andrews on the two-point attempt was right where it needed to be. It will surely be the lasting memory of this heartbreaking loss. Every franchise has their Hall Of Worst in this regard, and the Ravens will make room on the mantle for this dud. They took the lead early, but there wasn’t enough continuity, settling for short field goals a couple of times and giving the ball away three times. It’s hard to go minus-three in the turnover department on the road against an MVP-caliber quarterback, and yet the Ravens almost did.
  5. The Bills-Chiefs will add another chapter to a huge rivalry. Since Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen has risen to prominence, the Chiefs-Bills has been nearly as good a rivalry as the NFL has offered in recent years. They will now meet for the second time in the AFC Championship Game and for the fourth time in the postseason. The Bills have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings and were the only team to beat the back-to-back champions this season, 30-21, at Highmark Stadium. But those wins came in the regular season, and this one will be back at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Bills suffered arguably their most crushing loss since Super Bowl XXV, the infamous “13 Seconds” game in January 2022 that ranks high in all playoff annals of all time. You can’t ask for much more than this. While both the Chiefs and Bills are flawed, each is capable of winning it all. But only one team can, and it could come down to the heavyweight battle for star quarterbacks.

Next Gen Stats Insight for Ravens-Bills (via NFL Pro): The Ravens lost a total of -36.7% in net win probability on turnovers in their loss to the Bills. They lost -5.9% win probability on an interception of Taylor Rapp intended for Rashod Bateman-19.3% win probability on Damar Hamlin‘s strip sack, and -11.5% win probability on Mark Andrews’ fumble recovered by Terrel Bernard.

NFL Research: Josh Allen has seven playoff rushing TDs in 12 playoff games and will add two on Sunday against the Ravens. He is now tied for second all-time for QB rushing TDs in the postseason with Tom Brady, who did it in 48 playoff games. Steve Young (eight) leads the way and did so in 22 postseason games.