How Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen have proved draft doubters wrong

A BRILLIANT JOSH ALLEN stepped onto the stage at the 2018 NFL Draft donning a gray baseball cap with one word emblazoned on it: Billieve.

“I want to make them look like they’re the smartest people out there,” Allen said after the Buffalo Bills moved up five spots to select him No. 7 overall in a trade of picks with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

About 2½ hours later, the Baltimore Ravens pulled off one of the biggest surprises of the draft — even shocking some in their draft room. After drafting tight end Hayden Hurst No. 25, the Ravens moved back into the first round by sending three picks to the Philadelphia Eagles to take quarterback Lamar Jackson.

A stone-faced Jackson, who was the final selection on the first night of the draft, looked directly into the camera and said, “They’re going to make a Super Bowl out of me. Believe it.”

Both Allen and Jackson had their doubters leading up to the draft. NFL evaluators saw them as having the highest ceilings. But there were concerns about Allen’s accuracy and questions about Jackson becoming effective throwing in the pocket.

“The qualifying set was there for both,” ESPN senior draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said. “They were unique and I understand that. That’s why people misjudged what they could be in the NFL because they weren’t what the NFL was used to seeing.”

Allen and Jackson have not only established themselves as two of the game’s best players, they’ve changed the course of two teams in the process.

In the five seasons before they landed their franchise quarterbacks, the Bills and Ravens hovered around .500 with one playoff bid apiece. In the seven seasons since, Allen and Jackson have eluded pass-rushers, run through defenses and delivered jaw-dropping touchdown passes to lead their teams to a combined 146 wins and nine division titles while compiling 58 losses.

And in Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS), one will advance to a game in a Super Bowl and the other will wait at least one more year to chase that elusive championship. Before this matchup, Jackson acknowledged that he will forever be associated with Allen because of that fateful night in the 2018 draft.

“When we get older, we’ll probably laugh about it,” Jackson said. “But right now it’s serious. Too real.”

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BEFORE 2018 the draft started, the Bills thought they had a deal in place to move up and get Allen — until they didn’t.

Buffalo had previously agreed to jump from No. 12 to the Denver Broncos’ no. 5 slots. But then-Broncos GM John Elway said he would only make the move if the player he wanted was off the board. With the Broncos on the clock, pass rusher Bradley Chubb was available and they didn’t get to trade.

Bills general manager Brandon Beane quickly pivoted and completed a trade with the Buccaneers to move to the No. 7. According to draft trade charts, the Bills spent too much to get Allen, sending their first-round pick (No. 12) in addition to two second-round picks to Tampa Bay for his No. 7 picks and a seventh rounder.

“We got criticized a little bit for how much we gave up for Josh,” Beane said at last year’s NFL combine. “And I say, ‘If he doesn’t work out, I won’t be here anyway. And if he works out, nobody’s going to give a s—‘.”

Allen’s biggest drawback entering the draft was his 56% completion rate at Wyoming.

Beane watched every throw Allen made in his final two years of college, tracking the catchable balls and the number of times he avoided sacks. In pre-draft meetings with Allen, Beane came away believing that Allen had what it takes to be a franchise quarterback. The key was cleaning up Allen’s mechanics.

The Bills paired Allen with offensive coordinators who have helped him flourish, from Brian Daboll to Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. Buffalo wanted Allen to feel comfortable and cohesive with his playcallers, which in part played into promoting the team’s quarterbacks coaches (Dorsey and Brady) to the coordinator position.

The most significant investment surrounding Allen came from acquiring wide receiver Stefon Diggs in 2020 – now with the Houston Texans – in exchange for draft picks. The Bills have also used their first- and second-round picks on tight end Dalton Kincaid, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and wide receiver Keon Coleman in the last two drafts, as well as signing both starting tackles to extensions this year.

To help develop his throwing motion over the years, Allen has worked with Chris Hess, owner of Biometrik, a motion analysis company. Hess has digitally mapped all of Allen’s throws since 2020.

Allen has gone from completing 52.8% of his passes in his rookie season to connecting on 65.2% of his throws over the past five years. In 2024, he completed 63.6% of his passes.

“You name it, he commands our offense,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “And so when you look up the word quarterback in the dictionary or what have you, that’s how he plays. He’s very comfortable in the pocket, it seems, and he sees the game extremely well right now.”

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FOR THE RAVENS, it seemed like the first day of the 2018 draft was over. Baltimore had selected Hurst, and the team celebrated getting a young target in the passing game for quarterback Joe Flacco.

Some team officials had begun to leave the draft room, at which point longtime Ravens public relations director Kevin Byrne asked top personnel executives Eric DeCosta and Ozzie Newsome if they were ready to go downstairs to talk to reporters about their first-round pick.

“No, I think we’ll wait,” DeCosta said.

Ten days earlier, Baltimore had brought Jackson to a secret pre-draft meeting. DeCosta also reached out to Eagles GM Howie Roseman a few days before the draft. Philadelphia lacked picks by six but held the 32nd selection in the first round, and DeCosta knew the Eagles would be willing to trade picks to acquire more.

Back in the Ravens’ locker room, no one — not even coach John Harbaugh or owner Steve Biscotti, sitting across the table — knew what was happening when DeCosta looked at Newsome, who suggested, “Why don’t you call Howie ?”

Baltimore agreed to send two picks in this year’s draft (second- and fourth-round selections) and a second-rounder in 2019 to Philadelphia in exchange for the Eagles’ first- and fourth-round picks in 2018. When it was Baltimore’s turn to make the final pick in the first round, DeCosta announced that the Ravens were back on the clock.

“And nobody could believe it,” DeCosta said.

In a pre-draft meeting, Harbaugh assured his staff that they could build an offense in which Jackson would be successful. The offensive coordinator at the time was Marty Mornhinweg, who had been the playcaller for dual-threat quarterbacks Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb and Steve Young. The assistant head coach was Greg Roman, the former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator who coached Colin Kaepernick.

Baltimore engineered an offense heavy on run-pass options, highlighting Jackson’s quickness and elusiveness. But the plan was for Jackson to run less and throw more as the seasons progressed.

To upgrade Jackson’s supporting cast over the next seven years, the Ravens used two first-round picks on wide receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, a first-rounder on Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum and a second-rounder on right tackle Roger Rosengarten. This offseason, Baltimore landed the ultimate pairing for Jackson when it signed running back Derrick Henry.

All of this led to what the ravens had been thinking all along. This season, Jackson relied more on his arm than his legs. The two-time NFL MVP recorded his first 4,000-yard passing season and produced another historic benchmark: He became the first player to throw for more than 40 touchdown passes and fewer than five interceptions in a single season.

At the start of this season’s training camp, Harbaugh said, “The vision that we have together is that Lamar Jackson will stay and be known and be recognized as the greatest quarterback to ever play in the history of the National Football League.”

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JACKSON AND ALLEN are the favorites to win the NFL MVP award this season.

Quarterbacking two of the highest-scoring offenses in the league — the Bills are second in offensive points scored per game (29.5) and the Ravens third (29.3) — they have established themselves as two of the top players from the 2018 draft.

But for Jackson, that’s where the connection ends.

“I don’t really chill with people (in) the offseason, especially other quarterbacks,” Jackson said. “Don’t get me wrong, there’s no problem or anything like that, but we’re competing with each other. I’m trying to beat you; I’m not trying to be your friend.”

The debate over the NFL’s best quarterback this season is fierce. But there is mutual respect between the two. This week, Jackson complimented Allen on his strong arm and his “uniqueness” to make plays when they break down.

Before their Week 4 matchup, Allen described Jackson as “an inspiration to a lot of people.” He pointed to Jackson’s resilience and work ethic to win two NFL MVP awards.

“Guys around the league, they see it,” Allen said. “He’s really changed the way I think guys play the game.”

Allen and Jackson are 2-2 against each other — including the playoffs — and both have experienced low points in those meetings.

In a 2020 divisional game at Buffalo, Jackson threw a pick-six and was knocked out of a 17-3 loss with a concussion. Earlier this season in Baltimore, Allen was held to 180 yards in a 35-10 loss, his worst margin of defeat in three years.

Allen and Jackson also share postseason disappointment. In the playoffs, Allen has a 6-5 record and Jackson a 3-4 mark.

Each has played in an AFC Championship game with only frustration to show for it. In 2020, Allen lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in a 38–24 shootout, ending any chance of a comeback by throwing an interception with two minutes remaining. Last season, Jackson and the Ravens fell to the Chiefs 17-10 after being picked off in the end zone in the fourth quarter.

On Sunday, they vie for another shot at a conference championship game.

“Beane and Sean McDermott believed in Josh Allen. Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh believed in Lamar Jackson,” Kiper said. “They are both big winners.”

Kiper added, “What else do (Allen and Jackson) have in common? Neither of them have been to a Super Bowl.”

NFL Nation reporter Alaina Getzenberg contributed to this report.