AFC, NFC Championship Preview: Schedule, X-Factors, Stats

The NFC and AFC conference championships are set. The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Washington Commanders and the Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs with Super Bowl LIX tickets on the line.

To look ahead to next weekend’s conference championship games, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the divisional round. Seth Walder explored how each team can advance, Matt Bowen picked an early X-factor and we also provided opening lines from ESPN BET.

Jump to:
WSH-PHI | BUF-KC

NFC

When: Sunday at 3 PM ET (Fox)
Opening Line: PHI -5.5 (48.5)

Matchup background: These two NFC East rivals split the series this season. The Eagles took the first game in November 26-18, and the Commanders won the December battle 36-33, even though Jalen Hurts left with a concussion in the first quarter. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels did well against the Eagles in 2024; he combined for 449 passing yards, a 78.2 QBR, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Philadelphia and Washington last met in the playoffs in 1990 – Washington won 20-6. — ESPN

State to know: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has had his way against Washington in his career, averaging just over 137 scrimmage yards per game. The only player to average more scrimmage yards against a single opponent in NFL history is Jim Brown against the Eagles (minimum 10 games, including playoffs). — ESPN Research

Early X Factor: Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter. His ability to create internal chaos is crucial for the defence. Including the playoffs, he has 6.5 sacks, 28 pressures and 14 tackles for loss this season. Carter will need to disrupt the pocket and make impact plays to limit Daniels and the Washington offense. — Bowen

What we learned about the Eagles in the divisional round: This Philadelphia defense has a flair for the big moment. The snowy conditions at Lincoln Financial Field made it difficult for both offenses in the second half, and that’s when Vic Fangio’s group struck. First, it was Carter who stripped running back Kyren Williams for a turnover that set up a field goal, then linebacker Nolan Smith Jr. followed. followed by a strip-sack that added three more points. Going into next Sunday’s NFC championship game against the Commanders, there will be questions about quarterback Jalen Hurts’ health (he appeared to hurt his left leg in the second half) and whether the passing attack is up to the test. But this defense leaves no room for questioning. — Tim McManus

What we learned about the bosses in the divisional round: While Daniels has proven to be special, Washington’s fortunes improve when its defense and running game have days like they had against Detroit. The Commanders forced just 17 turnovers in the regular season but now have six in the postseason, including five against the Lions. Those turnovers have led to three touchdowns.

Plus, if the Commanders can get repeat production next week from running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, they will be tough to beat. The two backs combined for 132 yards — just 15 shy of their previous three games combined. — John Keim

Why the Eagles are winning: They have a talent advantage at almost every position outside of quarterback. The Eagles have better pass catchers, a better running back, a better offensive line, a better defensive line and better defensive backs. I’m not sure any of that is a question. Philadelphia also might have had the superior linebackers when healthy, but with Nakobe Dean out, that position might flip to Washington. Still, the Commanders need an otherworldly Daniels to win as he must make up for Philadelphia’s advantages all over the field.

Plus, Daniels torched the Lions in part because Detroit’s injuries forced it to take such a blitz-heavy approach. The plethora of stars on the Eagles defense — from Carter to Zack Baun to Darius Slay Jr. to Quinyon Mitchell — is one of the reasons Philadelphia can’t afford not to blitz often (18% rate entering the divisional round, fourth-lowest), which should help contain Daniels. — Walder

Why the Commanders will win: Daniels is blazing hot, and trainer Dan Quinn is acting optimally on the fourth attempt. Let’s start with the rookie quarterback, who posted a 91.8 QBR to shock Detroit and send the Commanders into the NFC Championship Game. Daniels repeatedly showed he can’t be blitzed, with a 90.1 QBR in the regular season against the blitz (second best), but the Lions tried anyway and got burned badly by that pick. But just forget about facing the blitz: Daniels is playing incredible. Since the Commanders’ current seven-game winning streak began in Week 13, Daniels has an 82.3 QBR, second only to Josh Allen (enters Sunday) in that span.

And part of what has made Daniel’s offensive efficiency even more significant is that Quinn showed he’s willing to go for it on fourth down, keeping the ball in his star quarterback’s hands. The Commanders faced four fourth downs Saturday when they ESPN Analytics model recommended going for it (there was a fifth that was neutral) and Quinn chose to go for it all four times. Those decisions — not the results, the decisions — added a cumulative 7.8% of win probability to Washington’s chances. That approach was huge and will continue to be as long as Quinn maintains that same mentality. — Walder

When: Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount)
Opening Line: KC -1.5 (48.5)

Matchup background: This will be the ninth meeting between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. They are 4-4 in head-to-head meetings, and Mahomes has a 3-0 lead over Allen in the postseason. The Bills and Chiefs met in Week 11 this season; Buffalo picked up the 30-21 victory in Kansas City’s only loss this season as the Chiefs played their starters. These two teams met in last season’s divisional round and the Chiefs won 27-24. — ESPN

State to know: The Bills are looking to be the third team since 2018 to beat the Chiefs twice in one season (2018 Patriots and 2021 Bengals). — ESPN Research

What we learned about the Chiefs in the divisional round: Kansas City will be tough to beat as long as tight end Travis Kelce is rolling. Against the Texans, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster all failed to catch a pass, and Xavier Worthy had a pedestrian game. But the Chiefs still found enough offense to score 23 points and advance to the AFC Championship Game because of Kelce.

Kelce had 117 receiving yards, more than half of the Chiefs’ total and more than double his season average of 56. He appeared fresh from a three-week layoff after the Chiefs clinched the top seed with a week left in the regular season . — Adam Teicher

What we learned about the Bills in the divisional round: Buffalo can finish close games in the postseason. In the past, the Bills have struggled in the playoffs to end some close games, losing in the divisional round three years in a row. The performance against the Ravens showed that this Bills team can be successful even when it’s not pretty and can do it in all three phases. A big test awaits in Kansas City after losing to the Chiefs in all three of the teams’ playoff meetings since 2020. — Alaina Getzenberg

Early X Factor: Worthy. In coach Andy Reid’s system, Worthy can stretch the defense on the third level, giving Mahomes an explosive target against Buffalo’s secondary. Reid can also scheme Worthy on manufactured touches when the Chiefs have the ball inside the red zone. He brings a playmaking element to the offense. — Bowen

Why the Chiefs are winning: They have individual players who can take over a game. After a quiet regular season, Kelce showed he still has energy as he had seven receptions for 117 yards against the Texans. Chris Jones had just 5.0 sacks in the regular season, but produced far more pass rush wins (62) and pressures (50) than any other defensive tackle. Trent McDuffie was one of the best corners in the league. And we can’t deny that Mahomes can bring postseason magic anytime this time of year. Even in a down year for the Chiefs quarterback, Kansas City has (rightfully so) trusted him, with the second-highest above-expectation completion rate in the league (plus-5%), according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

On paper, the Chiefs should be underdogs. But the world has seen Mahomes come up big too many times to assume he won’t again. Add in home field advantage and the Chiefs are almost as scary as ever. Almost. — Walder

Why the Bills are winning: They are the better team. Even entering Sunday, before beating the Ravens, FPI had the Bills 2.9 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. Why? Because they played better all season.

Bills’ 0.25 EPA per dropback entering Sunday is nearly double what the Chiefs (0.13) have put together this year. And they’ve been much better on the ground too – with an EPA of 0.07 per litre. game compared to the Chiefs’ minus-0.03 (some of that is bolstered by Allen’s designed run — but hey, that’ll help in the AFC Championship Game, too). The Bills have the quarterback who has played much better this year. Allen ranked first in QBR (77.3) this season (starting the game Sunday), while Mahomes was eighth (67.7), and Allen gets the benefit of playing behind the superior pass-protecting offensive line.

Buffalo has some pass defense issues. But offense is what drives wins in the NFL, and on that side of the ball, the Bills have a clear edge. — Walder