Expected AP Top 25 after Ohio State suffers spruce

After a week that saw a number of shakeups in the women’s college basketball AP poll, this past week was much quieter. Only one team ranked in the top 12 suffered a loss all week, and of the 10 losses by ranked teams, half came against teams ranked in the top 10.

That should mean there isn’t a ton of movement except at the bottom of the Top 25, where a pair of Big 12 teams account for 30 percent of the ranked losses this week and half of the losses to unranked foes.

Below is a projection of how Monday’s AP Top 25 poll will look.

1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Notre Dame
4th U.S.C
5. LSU
6. UConn
7. Texas
8. Maryland
9. TCU
10. Kansas State
11. Kentucky
12. Ohio State
13. North Carolina
14. Duke
15. Oklahoma
16. Tennessee
17. Georgia Tech
18. Cal
19. West Virginia
20. NC State
21. Alabama
22. Michigan State
23. Michigan
24. Minnesota
25. Creighton

UCLA will almost certainly remain No. 1 because the Bruins are undefeated, but it’s more than fair to wonder if the Bruins are actually the best team in the country or not.

For my money, I’m leaning towards UCLA being a close second to the real best team, South Carolina.

It was a banner week for the Gamecocks. Not only did head coach Dawn Staley sign a big-money extension, but the team also has two dominant wins over ranked opponents, beating Alabama and Oklahoma.

The win over Oklahoma was particularly impressive. I don’t think there was really any concern that SC would lose the game or anything like that, but the Sooners offense is always a big test for a defense. South Carolina passed the test easily, holding Oklahoma to 60 points while scoring 101 of their own. It was the fewest points scored by Oklahoma since January 2024, when the team scored 60 in a win over Kansas.

Ohio State’s football team is playing for a national championship Monday night, but its women’s basketball team won’t have a great Monday as the Buckeyes drop from ninth to 12th.

Sunday’s loss to Penn State dropped Ohio State from the list of undefeated teams, which now stands at just two: UCLA and LSU.

It never really felt like the Buckeyes would keep the undefeated streak going. They have yet to face a ranked team, though that might change today if Michigan moves into the AP Top 25. A seven-point win against the Wolverines is the highlight so far this season.

Against Penn State on Sunday, the Buckeyes just couldn’t get the offense going. Cotie McMahon and Chance Gray combined for 37 of the team’s 59 points, but Gray was just 6-for-18 from the field and 4-for-12 from deep.

The Cowgirls didn’t last long in the AP Top 25. After debuting at no. 24 last week, Oklahoma State drops out this week after suffering a shocking loss to Houston.

The Cougars are arguably the worst power conference team in the country. The team ranks 221st in the nation in net rating, last of all teams in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. It’s been a nightmare of a season for the Coogs, but somehow they beat a ranked Oklahoma State team.

It’s hard to understand what happened there. Houston won the second quarter 21-10 and the third quarter 23-14 to build a huge lead. Oklahoma State battled back in the fourth quarter, but fell just short, losing by three.

A big problem was that the Cowgirls shot just 28.6% from deep. On the season, the team is 14th in the nation in three-point field goal percentage, but it went cold in this one, which certainly contributed to the shock loss.

I don’t think the voters can justify ranking Utah and Oklahoma State after how this week went, but who will take their place?

Michigan makes sense for one of these locations. The team lost four of five between December 17 and January 8, but all of the losses were to ranked teams. Since then, the team has won three straight, all by double digits. The ship looks retreating.

As for the final spot, there isn’t really a super strong contender for it, so I’m guessing enough voters land on Creighton in their last spot. The Bluejays are 15-3 and have won six in a row. After a 1-2 start to the season, the team’s only other loss was to No. 1 UCLA, so there’s definitely a case here.

But Creighton plays UConn this week, so getting into the rankings is sure to be short-lived. Looking forward, Nebraska could end up being the team that emerges as the best of the currently unranked teams. Watch to see how the Huskers do when they face Ohio State next Sunday.