Washington vs. #17 Purdue Men’s Basketball: Game Preview and How to Watch

How to watch (and bet)

Date: Wednesday 15/1/25

Tip-off time: 6:30 PM PT

TV: Big Ten Network

Radio: Huskies Gameday AppSports Radio KJR

Location: Seattle, Washington

Bet line: Washington Huskies +9

Purdue Boilermakers 2024-25 Stats:

Record: 13-4 (5-1)

Points per game: 78.4 pages (68.)

Points against per game: 68.5 pages (78.)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 123.3 (9th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 97.6 (42nd)

Strength of schedule: 4

Purdue Key Players:

G- Braden Smith, Jr. 6’0, 170: 15.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 9.2 apg, 43.8% FG, 41.7% 3pt, 85.0% FT

Smith was the preseason pick for Big Ten Player of the Year, and he’s the favorite so far. He leads the country with an absurd 9.2 assists per game, which is just one less than Washington averaged as a team in 2020-21 under Mike Hopkins. He’s coming off back-to-back games with 14 assists, which is more than UW’s 13.2 average as a team this year. And oh yeah, he’s also an elite shooter.

G- Fletcher Loyer, Jr. 6’5, 180: 14.2 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 48.4% FG, 48.6% 3pt, 86.9% FT

Also an elite shooter? Fletcher Loyer, who is hitting 48.6% of his 3-point attempts this season after making 48.5% in conference play last year. For someone that good of a shooter, you might assume that’s all he does, but the majority of his shots actually come from inside the arc. Loyer doesn’t add much extra value as he’s a minus rebounder and defender, but it’s good enough to hit half of your shots from deep and be a nail at the free throw line.

G- CJ Cox, Fr. 6’3, 200: 6.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.9 apg, 49.3% FG, 44.2% 3pt, 77.3% FT

The true freshman has seen increasing playing time and has started the last 4 games for Purdue. In Purdue’s last contest against Nebraska, he had a career-high 23 points on 9/11 shooting to go along with 4 rebounds and 4 steals. In Big Ten games specifically, he has been incredibly efficient, shooting 77% on 2s and 46% on 3s, despite having a relatively small sample size. He’s also a great rebounder for his size, averaging better than 5 per game. game since he started getting more minutes.

F- Trey Kaufman-Renn, Jr. 6’9, 230: 17.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.5 apg, 61.2% FG, 42.9% 3pt, 57.9% FT

With Zach Edey gone, Trey Kaufman-Renn has taken advantage of the opportunity and been one of the breakout players in the country. He shoots about 2.5 times as much per game like last year and has managed to become more efficient from all areas of the floor to go from 6.4 to 17.5 points per game. match. He doesn’t take many 3s, but is capable of making them if they are wide open. TKR goes to work inside where he is a dominant physical force. He is an exceptional offensive rebounder and a very good passer for someone his size. It will be a battle between him and Osobor.

C- Caleb Furst, Sr. 6’10, 235: 4.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 53.3% FG, 69.0% FT

Purdue lost 7’4 freshman center Daniel Jacobsen for the year after 2 games and has had some trouble finding his replacement. Caleb Furst seems to have finally emerged to take the starting center and has been playing at least 20 minutes per game. game in Purdue’s last 5 after not playing more than 17 minutes in a game since November 2023. He’s not much of a defensive rebounder, but is good on the offensive glass and is a solid scorer around the rim. The one thing he’s not, though, is a shot blocker.

The view

The blur continues. Washington will play their 4th straight game against a team ranked in the top-14 by KenPom tonight when they take on Purdue. Last year, the Huskies played just two such games all season (at home against Gonzaga and at Arizona).

Purdue started the season 8-4, but played an absolutely brutal non-conference schedule with games against #8 Alabama, #11 Marquette, #23 Ole Miss, #15 Texas A&M and #1 Auburn (using the KenPom rankings). They’ve had one of the easier stretches possible in the Big Ten lately, blowing out opponents with 5 straight 18+ point wins including a 36-point demolition of Nebraska on Sunday.

Things start on the offensive end for Purdue with Braden Smith. There were questions about how well Smith would fare without the lob-throwing ability of Zach Edey and without him being double-teamed in the paint. The answer is fine. His assist rate has risen from 11th nationally to 1st, and he’s still shooting better than 40% from deep. They align with Purdue’s elite moves. They are 3rd in assist rate on offense nationally and 7th in 3-point percentage, making nearly 40% as a team.

Purdue has played more of a 2-big look in conference play with Trey Kaufman-Renn plus Caleb Furst combining for just 7 attempts from deep this year. But it has worked because Purdue plays with 3 above average shooters around it at almost all times. The starting guard trio of Smith, Loyer and Cox all make at least 41.7% from beyond the arc. You can’t leave any of them open and expect to survive for an entire game. The two primary forward reserves are both shooting 34% from deep, so they still stretch the floor as well.

Purdue may be most efficient when making shots from 3-point range, but they still take the majority of their shots inside the arc, so they don’t rely entirely on their outside shots. They rank between 102nd and 240th in percentage of their shots coming from each area of ​​the court, so it’s a well-balanced offense.

It’s not a surprise without a true 7-footer that Purdue is a below-average rebounding squad overall. In the Big Ten, they are playing even though they are 9th and 5th in offensive and defensive rebound rate, so things have gotten better lately.

On the defensive end, Purdue has been good at defending the 3-point line and avoiding fouls, but isn’t remarkable in any one state. They generally rank between 3rd and 9th in Big Ten play in all the major categories except block rate, where they are just 13. These are probably the worst two rim protection teams in the conference with Kepnang/Jacobsen both out, so expect to see a lot made curve in the lacquer.

You could argue that the Huskies have a chance in this game. Washington has generally been pretty good defending the 3-point line ranking in the top-5 in fewest 3s allowed this season and 20th in opponent 3-pt %. If Purdue’s shots don’t fall and the Boilermakers try to keep shooting from outside, it could keep the Huskies in it. The problem is that UW can’t stop anyone in the paint right now. Big Ten opponents are shooting nearly 60% on 2-point shots against the Dawgs, and you just can’t win with that kind of defense.

When Washington has the ball, the game plan will be to hope the Great Osobor can have the kind of offensive game he had against Michigan. There will likely be curves at both ends with Osobor vs. Kaufman-Renn, but there is no clear cut against Osobor on this Purdue team. Great should have another double-double, but as always, it doesn’t matter without teammates making an uncharacteristic number of 3s around him. That might be more difficult if DJ Davis is still out with the ankle injury he suffered last week.

Washington has had an impressive home court advantage in the new year with large crowds that have helped spur Maryland and Illinois closer. I would love to think it happens again. But Purdue has been an absolute buzzsaw lately and I think their streak of 18+ point wins will continue.

Forecast

Washington Huskies– 67, Purdue Boilermakers- 86