Prochazka vs. Hill odds, picks and predictions

On January 16, 2025By Littum

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 13: Jamahal Hill prepares to face Alex Pereira of Brazil in the UFC spotlight … (+) heavyweight championship bout during the UFC 300 event at T-Mobile Arena on April 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

The UFC presents its first pay-per-view card on the promotion’s 2025 schedule, UFC 311, on Saturday, January 18. The event will take place at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. Two title matches headline the event. In the main event, Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch. While in the UFC 311 co-main event, bantamweight titleholder Merab Dvalishvili defends his belt against Umar Nurmagomedov. Before those bouts take place, two former UFC light heavyweight champions, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, square off on the PPV portion of the UFC 311 fight card. We look at the odds for that match and offer our preview, picks and predictions for the match.

UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamal Hill

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 29: Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic watches under a light … (+) heavyweight championship bout at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena on June 29, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

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Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) entered the UFC in 2020 with a record of 26-3-1. At the time, he was coming off a knockout victory over former UFC fighter CB Dollaway, which earned him the Rizin light heavyweight title.

Prochazka rode a 10-fight winning streak prior to his UFC debut with nine knockout wins.

The former Rizin champion announced himself to UFC fans with a second-round knockout of former UFC light heavyweight title challenger Volkan Oezdemir at UFC 251. The UFC awarded Prochazka a “Performance of the Night” bonus for that knockout. He followed that stop with another knockout, pinning another former UFC title challenger, Dominick Reyes, in the second round of their UFC on ESPN main event matchup.

The UFC, sensing it had something special in Prochazka, then booked him for a title shot. That fight came in June 2022 against reigning champion Glover Teixeira. That bout was a spirited affair, but Prochazka once again scored a stoppage victory as he picked up his first submission in more than nine years and won the scrap in the fifth round via back-naked choke.

Prochazka’s title reign was short-lived. A nasty shoulder injury forced him to pull out of a planned rematch against Teixeira, and he vacated the title at the time.

Prochazka returned to the UFC Octagon in November 2023 against former UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira. Their UFC 295 headline fight was for the vacant light heavyweight crown. Pereira claimed the belt with a second-round knockout victory, handing Prochazka his first loss since former Strikeforce light heavyweight king Muhammed Lawal toppled him in late 2015.

Prochazka bounced back from that defeat with a “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockout of Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300.

That victory gave Prochazka another shot at Pereira and his title. That fight headlined UFC 303 in June 2024. Pereira retained his belt with a second-round knockout victory.

The 32-year-old Prochazka has 25 career knockout wins, three submission wins and one decision nod. His losses have come by way of knockout (four) and submission (one). Prochazka is currently no. 2 ranked fighter i official UFC light heavyweight rankings.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 13: Jamahal Hill enters the Octagon in the UFC light heavyweight bout … (+) championship bout during the UFC 300 event at T-Mobile Arena on April 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jamahal Hill (12-2-0-1) had a 5-0 record when he appeared on a Dana White Contender Series card in July 2019. He won that fight against Alexander Poppeck by TKO in the third round. The win earned him a UFC contract.

Hill made his official UFC debut in January 2020, winning a decision over Darko Stosic on the main card of an ESPN+ event at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. He then faced Klidson Abreu in May 2020. He initially won that fight by first-round TKO, but the result was later overturned to a no-contest because Hill tested positive for marijuana

He followed that fight with a TKO in December 2020 over former interim light heavyweight title challenger Ovince Saint Preux.

Hill’s undefeated streak ended in his next trip to the Octagon when Paul Craig ended their fight in June 2021 in under two minutes by TKO.

Hill bounced back from that loss by rattling off three straight “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockouts. That run gave him a shot at then-champion Glover Teixeira. Hill put on a striking clinic in that bout, knocking out Teixeira over five rounds to earn a one-sided decision victory and the UFC 205-pound crown. The bout headlined UFC 283 in January 2023.

Accident ended Hill’s title reign. In July 2023, he suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during a UFC fighter basketball match. He relinquished the title and underwent surgery to repair the injury.

Hill returned at UFC 300 in a matchup against UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. Pereira finished that fight via knockout at 3:14 of the first round. Hill has not competed since the April 2024 setback.

Hill, the no. 3 ranked UFC light heavyweight, has seven wins by knockout and five decision wins. Both of his losses have come via knockout.

UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Jiri Prochazka Vs. Jamal Hill Betting Odds

When the odds were released for this matchup, Jiri Prochazka was a +110 underdog to Hill, who checked in as the -130 betting favorite. Today, Prochazka is +105 and Hill is listed at -125.

UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Jiri Prochazka Vs. Jamahal Hill essential statistics

Don’t expect grappling to come into play in this light heavyweight scrap. As such, we will only look at striking statistics for the competitors.

Prochazka is landing 5.38 significant strikes per minute for a 55 percent landing rate. He is getting hit with a fairly high 5.59 strikeouts per minute, and his defensive strikeout rate is 39 percent.

Hill averages 7.18 significant strikes per minute and lands with 54 percent accuracy. Hill absorbs 3.51 significant attacks per minute and has a defensive rate of 46 percent.

UFC 311 Fight Card Preview: Jiri Prochazka Vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction and Picks

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 13: Jamahal Hill warms up before his fight during the UFC 300 event at … (+) T-Mobile Arena on April 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Both of these men are focused on their offense, so a knockout either way is the likely outcome of this fight. What stands out are the striking differences. Hill is landing a UFC light heavyweight record 3.40 more striking strikes per minute than his opponents, while Prochazka has a negative striking differential. It’s a hard thing to ignore when choosing.

The bet is that Hill will be the one to finish the fight and get his hand raised.

UFC 311 fight card date

Saturday 18 January 2025

UFC 311 fight card standings

Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California

UFC 311 fight card time and how to watch and stream

Early tip-off: 6:00 PM ET – ESPN+

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET – ESPNews

PPV Card: 10:00 PM ET – ESPN+ PPV

The UFC 311 fight card is the first pay-per-view even on the UFC schedule for 2025. Stay tuned for more coverage from UFC 311, as well as fight night results, reactions, recaps.