3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 1/17/24

On January 18, 2025By Littum

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, money lines and totals. The league has 1,230 games in the regular season, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow down the choices. number Four’s NBA power rankings and NBA Game Projections paired with advanced statistics from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While using some of the mentioned tools like NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note that lines may change during the day after this article is published.

Today’s best NBA betting picks

Timberwolves at Knicks

Knicks -5.0 (-106)

The Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks space for their second and final meeting — this time at Madison Square Garden. Considering New York came away with a 26-point road W when they blew out Minneapolis last month, this is an exciting place to back the Knicks -5.0 tonight.

New York enters Friday with the fifth-best record (27-15) and net rating (+6.5) in the NBA. Minnesota, meanwhile, is just 21-19 while ranking 12th in net rating (+1.8). The Wolves have a top-10 defense, but they are a paltry 17th in offense. While New York is 2nd in offense and 15th in defense, we saw which strength won the first time these teams matched up.

The Knicks routed the Timberwolves, 133-107, back on December 19. Despite keeping pace beyond the arc and winning the turnover game, Minnesota was outrebounded 57-37. That’s been a strength of New York’s all season — they’re 4th in overall rebounding — while the Wolves have been just average on the glass (15th).

Provided Karl-Anthony Towns (doubtful) fit tonight, I expect more of the same this time. KAT proved to be a matchup nightmare for Minnesota, scoring 32 points and grabbing 20 rebounds in their December date. His contributions helped offset an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from the leading scorer Jalen Brunson (14 points; 5-of-14 shooting).

The Knicks want too Josh Hart back after he missed the first game. Hart is second on the team in VORP (Value Over Replacement), so his return should give them an even bigger boost.

It doesn’t hurt that the Knicks have the league’s fourth-best net rating (+8.8) at home, while Minnesota is just ninth in net rating on the road (+1.4). With more firepower this time around, I fully expect New York to take care of business again against the Timberwolves, covering as 5.0-point favorites in the process.

Nuggets by heat

Heat Moneyline (-110)

The Denver Nuggets travel south to gain weight Miami Heat in a rematch of the 2022-23 NBA Finals. While neither side is playing as well as they did in the postseason two years ago, these are still playoff-caliber teams. The Nuggets are fourth in the Western Conference standings, while the Heat are eighth in the East.

Even though Denver has a better record than Miami, this is one place I’m targeting to win the home heat.

Miami has had an up-and-down season — thanks in no small part to theirs ongoing saga with star Jimmy Butler. Butler returns from a seven-game suspension tonight, so it’s fair to be skeptical of how Miami will look. But I’d have a hard time believing they’d insert him back into the lineup if there wasn’t some sort of mutual understanding of what Butler needs to do to raise his trade value.

The Heat went just 2-5 in his absence, though the last six of those games came in an extended west coast road trip. They return home tonight to a venue they own a 10-7 record and a +2.6 net rating.

Denver has been one of the better road teams in the association, going 12-8 with the league’s fifth-best net rating (+5.5) on the road.

Still, the Nuggets struggled mightily in their most recent contest without the three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic is questionable tonight and an official announcement on his status could change this line dramatically.

Even if Jokic plays, Miami matches up well enough with Denver to consider their -110 moneyline odds at home. Across Jokic’s last seven regular season games with the Heat, he has averaged just 22.1 points per game. match.

numberFire’s NBA game projections get this one decided by less than a single point. In what feels like a true throwback, I’ll be rooting for the home team and I expect a vengeful return from Butler.

Grizzlies at Spurs

Over 239.5 total points (-110)

The Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs will match for the second time in three days tonight. After they combined for 245 points in Memphis on Wednesday night, we can look for both sides to light up the scoreboard again and push that total over 239.5 in the process.

Memphis enters Friday with the league’s fifth-best offensive rating, but they lead the league in scoring (123 points per game) thanks to their league-leading pace. They have been just as strong on the road, averaging 122.6 points per game. match.

San Antonio is just 19th in offensive rating, but they have been much better at home. They average 114.6 points per game. game at home (13th) compared to 108.4 points per away game (23rd).

The Spurs are right around league average in terms of pace, so I expect Memphis to once again dictate the pace of play. In San Antonio’s three other games against top-three teams, the game totals were 259, 263 and 224 points.

That should be enough to get tonight’s Grizzlies-Spurs game past 239.5 total points, especially considering both sides are outside the top 10 in scoring defense.

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The above writer is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The advice given by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.