Preview: Australian Open: Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Musetti – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Expect entertainment and impressive ball strikes when Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti match on Saturday Australian Open third round competition.

The Italian is unbeaten against the exuberant USA player and extending that winning run will take the 16th seed into the fourth round Down Under for the first time.

Match preview

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Shelton and Musetti have similarities heading into this year’s third round at Melbourne Park: both men have defeated compatriots, dropped a set each and faced tie-breaks in rounds one and two.

The 21st seed defeated Brandon Nakashima in his tournament opener in straight sets before needing four to seal a round-two triumph over the Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta despite losing a shootout in the third set; the American claimed the fourth to secure a 6-3 6-3 6-7(4) 6-4 victory.

Following that success is a match-up with his No. 1 seeded opponent in Australia, where success for Shelton takes him one win away from matching his 2023 quarter-final run.

Although it may require beating an in-form compatriot to reach the last eight Taylor Fritz if USA no. 1 player defeats Gael MonfilsShelton can’t afford to look that far ahead given his losing record against Saturday’s opponent.

Despite exiting at this stage last year, the 22-year-old’s 80% win rate in Australia ranks above the US Open (70%), Wimbledon (67%) and Roland Garros (50%) and he is targeting a career ninth win Down Under at Musetti’s expense.

© Imago

The Italian could be tagged as the tie-break man of the year due to his 100% record in four shootouts in rounds one and two to eliminate the compatriot Matteo Arnaldi (7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-3) and Denis Shapovalov (7-6(3), 7-6(6), 6-2).

Musetti raising his level in these shootouts bodes well for his prospects against the American’s booming serve as he bids for a round-four spot in Australia.

This year’s run has already surpassed the 22-year-old’s previous three involvements at Melbourne Park, where he faced tournament openers in 2022 and 2023 before exiting in the second round 12 months ago.

With two wins this year, Musetti has doubled his previous tally of wins at the opening major of the tennis season, improving his 25% win rate before the start of the tournament – significantly lower than his French Open results (67%), Wimbledon ( 64% ) and the US Open (56%).

The one-time Grand Slam semi-finalist has never lost to Shelton in two match-ups and is aiming for a third straight success over the left-hander for a fourth-round contest with Fritz or Monfils.

Tournament so far

Ben Shelton:

First round: vs. Brandon Nakashima 7-6(3) 7-5 7-5
Second round: vs. Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 6-3 6-7(4) 6-4

Lorenzo Musetti:

First round: vs. Matteo Arnaldi 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3
Second round: vs. Denis Shapovalov 7-6(3) 7-6(6) 6-2

Head to head

Miami Masters (2024) – Round of 32: Musetti 6-4 7-6(5)

Queen’s Club (2023) – Round of 16: Musetti 6-4 4-6 6-4

Musetti has won both matches against Shelton at ATP Touralthough Saturday’s meeting will represent the pair’s first at a Grand Slam.

The Italian won their only meeting on hard courts in Miami last year in two tight sets, notably achieving a tie-break in the second set.

The 16th seed has a 25-16 win-loss record against lefties, with Thursday’s win over Shapovalov snapping a two-match losing streak against such opponents.

While Shelton enters this weekend’s match 8-19 against players ranked in the top 20, the American player has recorded three wins in his last four against opponents in that category, losing only to Jannik Sinner in Shanghai – his victories were against Daniel Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Arthur Fils.

We say: Musetti wins in five sets

Saturday’s meeting between these 22-year-olds could go either way, despite Musetti’s 2-0 advantage in their head-to-head.

We expect the match to go all the way, with the Italian making the decision to extend his five-setter winning streak to four after last year’s victories Luciano DarderiFritz (both at Wimbledon) and Miomir Kecmanovic at the US Open.

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