Tennis’ best bets for men’s action on January 18

Today’s Tennis Picks and Predictions for Day 7 of the 2025 Australian Open:

Australian Open 2025 has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The best ATP players in the world are in Melbourne for the first major of the season, and we’re reaching the part of the tournament where every match will feature household names. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite picks for Day 7 of the men’s matches, which will be played on Friday, January 17th and Saturday, January 18th for us in the United States. The day will feature guys like Jannik Sinner, Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz in action, so you won’t want to miss these matches. Also check out my two women’s top picks for Day 7.

I would also strongly suggest that you return to this story before the matches start – or check the selections page regularly. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line moves and add to my map a few hours before the matches begin. That said, I’ll be adding picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles when I’m done. Gill Alexander who does a great job of handicapping tennis at A numbers game (MF from 10 a.m. ET to 12 p.m. ET), also posts his tennis picks on the picks page!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting on!

Record in 2025: 55-45 (+8.79 units)

Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Holger Rune

In my look at the men’s draw I noticed that Rune could be in for a big season. He is back with the coach who has been with him in the biggest moments of his career. And so far, we’re seeing an exceptional version of the 21-year-old. Rune had some issues in his opening round win over Zhizhen Zhang, but is a talented player who has won some big matches in his career. And Rune followed it up with a terrific move against Matteo Berrettini. There were moments when Rune fell into old habits, going big when it was unnecessary and just relying on his monstrous talent when there were better decisions to make. But for the most part, Rune spent the entire match on Berrettini’s weak backhand. And he did a good job of fighting to get Berrettini’s big lead back and neutralizing that weapon a bit. But the big story of the match was Rune’s homecoming. Berrettini is one of the best servers in the world, but Rune was all over the place. Returning has been a big problem for Rune in the past, but it seems he understands the importance of just getting balls back and giving himself a chance in rallies. It should do wonders for him.

With Rune looking to take another step in his career, I just can’t imagine Kecmanovic winning more than a set here. Unlike Berrettini, Kecmanovic has no elite weapons. He is an all-court player like Rune is, but he is a little more defensive. And while he ripped the ball against Hubert Hurkacz last game, I’m not sure I see him overpowering Rune from the baseline. I just see this as a match where Rune is slightly better at everything, so he should cruise if he’s as dialed in as he was against Berrettini. And something tells me he will be. Rune has spent the last two years watching his rivals, Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, pass him by. And now he’s hearing about Joao Fonseca as a potential member of the next big three. Rune knows it’s time to remind everyone who he is. To do that, he needs to at least set up a meeting with Sinner in the fourth round.

I also think it’s a matchup that Rune has figured out. After losing in straight sets to Kecmanovic in Stockholm in 2023, he also dropped the first set against him in Basel a week later. But Rune then won the next two sets, and he didn’t need a tiebreaker in either of them. I think he will bring some of that to this fight.

Stake: Rune -1.5 set (-111)

UPDATE: Adding a unit on this at -128 making my entire bet 2.39 units to win 2 units. As this match was played in the evening, we could see slow, clay-like conditions. In terms of winning percentage, clay has been Rune’s best substrate. So I think it suits him pretty well.

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Musetti

Both of these players have been fantastic in Melbourne so far. Shelton beat Brandon Nakashima 7-6 (3), 7-5, 7-5 in the first round. Nakashima is a very big server, so it was impressive that Shelton only needed one tiebreaker in their match. And he actually had a break in the set that had one, so his return was solid in the match. He then claimed a 6-3, 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-4 victory over Pablo Carreno Busta, who is another good player. Meanwhile, Musetti beat Matteo Arnaldi 7-6 (4), 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-3 in the first round and he followed it up with a 7-6 (3), 7-6 ( 6) , 6-2 win over Denis Shapovalov. So both of these players have been through talented opposition Down Under and this match has the potential to be very exciting. But it’s hard not to see any value in Musetti, who has a slightly higher Elo rating (1894.1 vs. 1881.6) and was slightly better in the majors last year – especially over the summer.

Shelton actually has a higher hard-court Elo rating than Musetti, and I generally understand anyone who thinks the American is a better hard-court player. He has one of the best serves on the tour and he can hit the ball from the baseline. He’s also athletic enough to track everything when defending. But Musetti earned a 6-4, 7-6 (5) victory over Shelton in Miami last year. It’s another very fast hard-court event. So we’ve already seen the Italian bring the goods against Shelton on the American’s best surface.

The thing about these two is that the Musetti has more variety and a bit more purpose from the baseline. That’s important in a fight against Shelton, who has all the natural ability in the world but is still learning how to win fights. It’s entirely possible that his tools allow him to push Mussetti around and ultimately win this fight. But at plus-money odds, I’m willing to take a shot at the Italian. He’s not bad in the talent department, and it looks like he’s finally figured out how to maximize his game.

Effort: Musetti ML (+128)

RELATED: Check out my top two women’s bets for Day 7 at the Australian Open!

Teacher Tien vs. Corentin Moutet

I’m a little shocked to see plus-money odds attached to Moutet. I know Tien had a big upset win over Daniil Medvedev last fight and it definitely made headlines. So perhaps there is an increase in betting interest on an exciting new arrival on the scene. But people need to pump the brakes if they see similarities between Tien and Joao Fonseca. While the two met in the Next Gen Finals a few weeks ago, they are not in the same universe as potential clients. Tien is a bit of a pusher from the baseline, able to grind opponents down and outlast them. However, I’m not sure he has the weapons required to be a top-25 player at the ATP level. When he stops playing Challengers, it will be interesting where he fits into the landscape. Meanwhile, Fonseca is a player who will look to win majors one day.

With all that in mind, I don’t know that Tien can be expected to continue beating good players. And Moutet is a good player. The small lefty is not that different from Tien as he is a smaller southpaw who does not have the ability to outscore opponents. But Moutet has much more to his game than Tien. That includes an elite drop shot, an uncanny ability to mix pace from the baseline and an outrageous mind for the game. His tennis IQ is through the roof. So it’s a game where we’re going to see a lot of extended rallies and there will probably be quite a few service breaks. But it is also one that Moutet should find a way through.

Stake: Moutet ML (+110 – 1.5 units)

Gael Monfils vs. Taylor Fritz

I would be surprised if both players don’t win a set in this third round. In 2019, Fritz beat Monfils 6-3, 6-7 (8), 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5) in this tournament. And I just have a feeling we’re going to see a very similar matchup. Since the start of the 2025 season, Monfils has a keep rate of 89.3%. He is also serving 60.5% of his first serves and winning 80.3% of his first serve points. He just acts like a servebot early in the year, even though that’s not really what he is. But as long as he’s easy to get hold of, there’s no reason we won’t see some hard-fought sets against Fritz. Breaks should come at a premium here.

If we see a few tiebreakers in this fight, it’s just unrealistic to expect Fritz to win them all. The American is an elite player at this point in his career, and he was the runner-up at the 2024 US Open. But Monfils has the type of length and athleticism required to give Fritz some trouble when the Frenchman returns. So I’m not sure I see Fritz in clear control of this match all the way through.

Another way to attack this would be to take Monfils to win a set and that game is out there closer to -140. But I don’t expect Monfils to win in straight sets against a -833 favorite. So I’ll take the better odds of both getting on the board.

Stake: Over 3.5 sets (-121 – 1.5 units)

Added plays

I can’t guarantee there will be more choices here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every few hours. I will add my extra plays there and then throw them in this story after.

Tennis links

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