Preview: Australian Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh from an 18th straight win at Australian Open, Aryna Sabalenka aims to progress to the last four when she welcomes the oldest woman back into the draw, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkovain Tuesday’s quarterfinal contest.

World no. 1 could be the favorite to make the last four against Coco Gauff or Paula Badosa, but will be wary of an opponent she has a negative record against on the women’s tour.

Match preview

© Imago

Despite pre-fourth round predictions predicting a close encounter, Sabalenka exuded teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva in straight sets, sealing a 6-1, 6-2 victory in 62 minutes.

Strikingly, the top seed spent the shortest amount of time on court against the highest-ranked opponent she has faced to avenge last season’s Roland Garros quarter-final defeat and set up a fourth meeting with Pavlyuchenkova.

That success extended the two-time defending champion’s winning run to 18 Down Under and as many wins at hard-court majors after winning last year’s Australian Open and US Open.

The ambition heading into the year’s opening major was a three-peat Down Under, and the 26-year-old is three wins away from emulating the last woman to achieve the feat – Martina Hingis (1997-1999) – and the first since the turn of the millennium.

Keen to improve on her 84% win rate, the top seed enters the quarter-finals not only as the fresher player but also the one with momentum, evidenced by a nine-match winning streak since losing to Gauff at the WTA Finals last year.

© Imago

It will be fascinating to see if Pavlyuchenkova’s time spent on the court hardens the 33-year-old or if the mileage takes a toll.

Another potential three-setter looked headed for Donna Vekic before the Croatian’s right knee led to a one-sided second set in Sunday’s 7-6(0), 6-0 success in one hour and 45 minutes at John Cain Arena.

While the 27th seed’s two previous matches have admittedly been under two hours, three-setters vs Yuan Yue and Anastasia Potapova a duration of almost two hours and three hours and 30 minutes respectively could undermine the Russian’s aim for a first semi-final berth Down Under after playing in three quarter-finals between 2017 and 2020.

Despite reaching the French Open championship match at Roland Garros the following year before losing to Barbora Krejcikovathe 33-year-old failed to reach those previous heights in Australia, twice in round one and round three before last year’s second-round elimination.

With her best Grand Slam run since the 2023 French Open and since the 2020 tournament in Melbourne, the oldest woman is aiming to return to the draw to shock the fancied Sabalenka, who many are tipping for a third straight title Down Under.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5
Third round: vs. Clara Tauson 7-6(5) 6-4
16th round: vs. Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova:

First round: vs. Yuan Yue 6-4 4-6 6-3
Second round: vs. Anastasia Potapova 7-6(2) 2-6 6-2
Third round: vs. Laura Siegemund 6-1 6-2
16th round: against Donna Vekic 7-6(0) 6-0

Head to head

French Open (2021) – Third Round: Pavlyuchenkova 6-4 2-6 6-0

Madrid (2021) – Semi-Final: Sabalenka 6-2 6-3

Toronto (2019) – Round of 16: Pavlyuchenkova 3-6 6-3 7-5

Pavlyuchenkova leads her head-to-head with Sabalenka 2-1, with the pair’s last meeting during the Russian’s 2021 run to the championship match at Roland Garros.

The 33-year-old is 3-7 in his most recent matches against top-10 players, although two wins were last year against Marketa Vondrousova in Doha and Qinwen Zheng in Cincinnati – both on hard courts.

The 12-times tour champion’s only other win over an elite player was the aforementioned triumph against Sabalenka in 2021, the last of her seven Grand Slam victories against such opponents.

We say: Sabalenka wins in two sets

Although Pavlyuchenkova’s considerable power and aggressive style could pose a challenge for Sabalenka, the top seed is expected to secure her 10th straight win of the season and 19th on the trot at the Australian Open.

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