Most of the state is now under a winter storm warning | Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

Editor’s note: This story will be updated as more information becomes available.

Much of Arkansas has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for Thursday and Friday as meteorologists get a clearer picture of the type and location of winter weather much of the state will receive.

All of Arkansas, with the exception of three counties, is under a winter storm warning, the weather service said in a post X Wednesday afternoon.

The winter storm warning is set to go into effect around noon Thursday and last until noon. 18.00 Friday.

Benton, Ashley and Chicot counties are under a winter weather advisory.

Joe Goudsward, a forecaster with the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock, said the upgrade for most of the state to a winter storm warning as opposed to a watch was largely due to timing.

“We’re further along. The thinking behind it hasn’t really changed, but the event is in sight,” Goudsward said Wednesday afternoon.

A winter storm warning is issued based on location as well as confidence that a winter storm will happen, said Colby Pope, another meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock.

“For a warning to be issued, we have an 80% or greater confidence that a winter weather event will meet or exceed a location’s snowfall criteria,” Pope said Wednesday morning. A winter storm watch does not have a certain confidence level to be issued.

The snowfall amount criteria for issuing a winter storm warning varies across Arkansas.

The criteria now incorporate impact and vulnerability with regard to winter weather, the briefing states. For many northwestern parts of the state, the forecast calls for at least 4 inches of snow or more before a warning is issued. For areas of central and eastern Arkansas, 3 inches of snow should be forecast, while far southern Arkansas only needs a forecast of 2 inches.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Little Rock is expected to receive about 9 inches of snow, Goudsward said.

“A pretty large area from Murfreesboro to Arkadelphia to Brinkley to Searcy and back to Fort Smith is expected to get about 7 inches of snow,” he said.

“We’re definitely going to get a good snow,” Goudsward said Wednesday afternoon.

Pope said the forecast of high snowfall for the Metro area is a “one in five year forecast.”

“It’s not unprecedented (but) this is definitely expected to be one of our high-end events,” the meteorologist said. “Little Rock is averaging about 3 inches of snow for the season.”

According to the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index included in the weather briefing, there is a probable chance that snow will cause moderate and possibly even some major impacts to parts of the state.

“The likelihood of moderate winter weather impacts from snow has increased over the central third of the state,” the briefing said. The confidence of moderate or major impacts from snow is highest across parts of the Ouachita Mountains along with Little Rock and Hot Springs.

Moderate impacts mean that disruptions to daily life can be expected and that drivers should take extra care when travelling.

Major impacts from winter weather, which is expected to be 40% in the Little Rock area due to snow accumulation, include significant disruptions to daily life, such as “dangerous or impossible driving conditions” and widespread closures.

Pope said Little Rock could expect to see some light snow starting around noon Thursday.

“The snow will be light and you might see some people walking around saying, ‘Oh my God, is this dust? It was just a blown forecast.’ But snowfall rates will increase overnight Thursday into early Friday and then continue through the evening, he said.

The current forecast and winter storm watches and warnings are expected to be changed and refined.

Goudsward also said southern Arkansas could see some about 0.25 inches of accretion during the winter storm.

Freezing rain can cause more problems than snow, Pope said. Ice can build up on power lines and cause damage, as well as cover roads with a layer of ice, making safe travel difficult.

And with temperatures set to remain cold even after the winter storm leaves the state, the ice may remain, causing further problems.

“You could have this problem where it gets warm enough during the day to melt the snow, but it gets so cold overnight that the water refreezes as ice,” Goudsward said. “It’s not going to be arctic, single-digit cold, but it’s still going to be very cold, and we could have more nights of thawing and refreezing.”