NBA betting prices update: Can anyone catch SGA, Jokic for MVP?

As the calendar turns to 2025 and the NBA season heats up, so do the races for the league’s biggest prizes. The competition is fierce and even small changes can swing the odds dramatically.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are the favorites for MVP, but will this be a two-man race, or do others like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama or Jayson Tatum have a chance to sneak into the picture?

Here’s the latest on that and every other major NBA award race.

---

Regular Season MVP

Leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-150)
In the hunt: Nikola Jokic (+130)
Longer images of interest: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+2000), Jayson Tatum (+4000), Victor Wembanyama (+10,000)

For the first time in a year and a half, Gilgeous-Alexander has surpassed Jokic as the favorite to win the MVP. SGA is having a terrific season, flirting with career highs across the board, good for third in the NBA in both scoring (31.3 PPG) and steals (2.0 SPG) and the lead in some of the composite box score stats like win shares ( Basketball- reference; 7.7 win shares, ahead of runner-up Jokic’s 7.1) and Value Over Replacement Player (basketball reference; 4.3 VORP, tied for first with Jokic).

Gilgeous-Alexander is also on career-best pace in measured power; The Thunder outscore their opponents by a whopping 17.1 points per game. 100 possessions with SGA on the court and the team is 16.3 points per game. 100 possessions better with him on the field. Both of those marks lead the Thunder by a significant margin and are among the best in the NBA. In a real sense, these +/- stats help gauge how valuable SGA has been as the clear most valuable player on arguably the best team in the league.

However, Jokic has been even more valuable with even more impressive stats than SGA. While the Nuggets are outscoring their opponents by 11.2 points per game. 100 possessions with Jokic on the court, the team falls off a cliff when he sits, being outscored by more than 14 points per game. 100 possessions without him for an on/off +/- of 25.3 points per 100. Absurd things. Jokic is also top-3 in the league in scoring (31.5 PPG, second), rebounds (13.0 RPG, third) and assists (9.7 APG, second), and his composite box score metrics overall also better than SGA’s. .

The difference between them is team success, with SGA’s Thunder being the top seed in the Western Conference with the best scoring margin (+12.1 PPG) in the NBA, while Jokic’s Nuggets are hovering between the fourth and seventh seeds in the West and struggling to remain a top-10 team in the league. Jokic’s level of individual play is probably still a bit better than SGA’s, but to overtake him in the MVP race, Jokic will need his Nuggets to start winning more.

The other players mentioned here have some similarities, but ultimately follow in a big way in one of these two areas. Antetokounmpo, the NBA’s leading scorer, and Wembanyama, the league leader in blocked shots, each have statistical footprints that could challenge Jokic for the best in the league. However, both their teams are struggling to get above .500, and both players will remain MVP long shots unless and until their teams rise dramatically in the rankings.

Tatum is the best player among the defending champions and the Celtics are also in the mix for the best record this season, but his statistical impact just doesn’t compare. Realistically, it’s hard to envision a path for Tatum to actually win the MVP against this level of competition. If Giannis and Wemby’s teams went on hot streaks that got them near the top of the league, however, they would become viable contenders who could actually win… but only if their teams start winning. A lot.

Until then, it’s a two-man race between SGA and Jokic. SGA has the lead by a small margin, but conversely, that could mean there is more future value in Jokic right now. He’s the reigning MVP and still has a fair chance to average a triple-double for the season, and right now you can get him for plus money, a relative rarity.

Rookie of the Year

Leader: Zach Edey (+115)
In the hunt: Alexandre Sarr (+300), Yves Missi (+650), Jaylen Wells (+750)
Long images of interest: Stephon Castle (+3000), Dalton Knecht (+4000)

This has been one of the most volatile races in the league and will likely continue to be moving forward. There is no clear favorite because no rookie has really stood out from his peers. Jared McCain was on track to do it before his knee injury, and his absence opens the door for everyone else.

Edey was a preseason favorite before his own injuries, and he has the occasional big game — like losing 21 and 16 at the Toronto Raptors on Dec. 26 — but overall, he’s been consistently solid but unspectacular.

Sarr, the superior no. 2, has had stretches of defensive brilliance and has scored in double figures in 12 straight games as a nightly starter for the Wizards.

Missi is another strong shot blocker, and probably a better rebounder than Sarr, if not quite the scorer.

Wells starts for the Grizzlies, and is a better scorer than the big men ahead of him on this list. He has three games of 20-plus points, including dropping a career-high 30 on the Kings last week.

Castle was my RoY favorite on NBA draft night, and he briefly became the favorite again after McCain’s injury. Since then, he moved back to the bench for the Spurs, with Devin Vassell and Chris Paul handling primary perimeter duties, which has hurt his upside. However, his season averages are still competitive with those ahead of him, and if he regains starting minutes in the near term, I’d say Castle is the highest value in this group as a potential long shot odds winner.

Knecht doesn’t have the consistent role that the Lakers can seriously challenge for, but we saw earlier this year that if he gets starting minutes, he’s an offensive explosion waiting to happen. Between Nov. 16 and 29, he had four games of 20 or more points, including a 37-point explosion with nine 3-pointers. At least that keeps him in the discussion, even if it’s a long shot.

Sixth Man of the Year

Leader: Payton Pritchard (-250)
In the hunt: De’Andre Hunter (+350)
Long images of interest: Amen Thompson (+1200)

The sixth man race is also typically fleeting. Last season the race leader changed on a monthly basis before Naz Reid came from nowhere to the end to win it. This season, Pritchard has been the odds-on favorite for the last month-plus after his 3-point barrage to start the season. Pritchard is still worth considering, but he’s cooled off enough from his hot start that his 15.2 PPG and 3.6 3PG averages shouldn’t be enough to make him such a heavy favorite.

This is especially true because Hunter has been on fire since late November. In his last 18 games, he is averaging 21.1 PPG and 3.1 3PG himself to close the gap with Pritchard. With the difference in juice, Hunter is the much better choice right now.

There are many other sixth men who could work their way back into this race. I’m focusing on Thompson here because he plays a big role on a Rockets team that has surprised many as one of the best teams in the West this season. Thompson has massive upside; the No. 3 overall pick in last season’s NBA draft has two 20-10 double-doubles in his past three games and three double-doubles in his past five. He could manage at this price.

Most Improved Player

Leader: Cade Cunningham (+200)
In the hunt: Jalen Johnson (+425), Tyler Herro (+425)
Long images of interest: Evan Mobley (+1000), Norman Powell (+1000), Victor Wembanyama (+1400), Dyson Daniels (+1600), Jalen Williams (+2000)

While Herro and Johnson are both having outstanding seasons, Cunningham has the inside scoop on this award because he is a different caliber of player. While Johnson and Herro have All-Star upside, Cunningham shows he has All-NBA upside.

After all the injuries in his early career, his glow-up this season with excellent individual statistics as well as improved team success for the Pistons makes it difficult for any of the others to overcome. Even though he has the shortest odds, Cunningham still gets 2-to-1 odds against him winning, so I have him as the best futures value in this category.

Defensive player of the year

Leader: Victor Wembanyama (-350)
Long images of interest: Evan Mobley (+1200), Jaren Jackson Jr. (+1200), Rudy Gobert (+3000)

This is the least competitive of the races. Wembanyama was the odds-on favorite going into the season, and as he continues to add to his lead in blocks per game, he only extends his lead at this price.

Any of Mobley, 2023 DPoY Jackson, or 4-time and reigning DPoY Gobert would be worthy winners in most seasons. But unless Wemby suffers injury or major slippage, he’s so far ahead that it’s hard to imagine anyone else challenging him this season.

Coach of the year

Leader: Kenny Atkinson (-275)
Long images of interest: Jamahl Mosley (+900), Taylor Jenkins (+1200), Ime Udoka (+1400), Mark Daigneault (+3300)

Atkinson is the runaway leader in this race because he has the Cavaliers posting the best record in the NBA, a pretty shocking result. Daigneault’s Thunder are right behind the Cavs in the standings, but the Thunder were the top seed in the West last season and Daigneault won last season’s CoY award as a result. With that in mind, their strong play this season isn’t enough to boost Daigneault as the Cavs’ results lift Atkinson.

Mosley might be the best value on the board because he has kept the Magic in the hunt for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs despite the Magic being plagued by injuries. If the Magic make a run when Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner return to the lineup, Mosley could provide Atkinson with the biggest challenge for this award.

Udoka also offers strong value because it’s so surprising that the Rockets are sitting near the top of the West. If he keeps them there and the Cavaliers slide at all, Udoka can also close the gap on Atkinson.