Pick Six Previews: With 2 elite defenses, Penn State’s offense is the advantage in the CFP semifinals

MIAMI — Two of college football’s most historic programs square off in the first national semifinal of the expanded 12-team playoff era, both trying to snap title droughts of nearly 40 years.

Notre Dame, with perhaps the largest national fan base, finished No. 1 in 1987, but then went decades without winning a title, BCS bowl game or playoff game.

Penn State may not have its national legion of so-called “Subway Domers,” but their fan base in Central Pennsylvania is just as passionate, and their alumni network is strong throughout the Northeast. Their Nittany Lions won the title in 1986, went undefeated in 1994, but recently found themselves wedged into a powerhouse Big Ten East with their playoff berth blocked by Ohio State on the dynasty.

Both have broken through in 2024 with old-fashioned football: dominant rushing attacks and elite defences. Notre Dame ended its major drought by routing Indiana in the opener and then defeated SEC champions Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 23-10.

Penn State finally broke into the national semifinals by destroying SMU 38-10 and then outscoring Boise State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl. The two teams meet for the first time since 2007, but this time it’s in the Orange Bowl with a ticket to the national championship on the line (5:30 p.m. MST, ESPN).

Game class

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): Penn State 69.3 (6th of 70 Power Four) | Notre Dame 68.5 (7th)
Season 2023: Penn State 75.2 (7th) | Notre Dame 77.6 (6th)
Season 2024: Penn State 77.5 (6th) | Notre Dame 80.8 (5th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is an important part of my pre-season and in-season evaluation.

No program benefited more from playoff expansion than Penn State. Behind Ohio State (2016-21) and Michigan (2022-23), they never finished in the top four but were consistently a top 10 team.

Their special 2022 recruiting class was stacked with five-star prospects who are now taking Penn State to a new national stage. They check in with a no. 6 ranking in my 2024 Game Grader, with close losses to Ohio State and Oregon.

Like Penn State, Notre Dame has consistently been “great” but is finally approaching “elite” territory. They started 2024 with a statement win over Texas A&M, but then lost embarrassingly at home to Northern Illinois. Since then, they’ve won 11 straight, the last nine coming in double figures for their best run since their 1949 title-winning team.

Notre Dame with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Notre Dame Offense (2024): 10th of 70 Power Four (21st passing, 1st rushing)
Penn State defense (2024): 5th of 70 Power Four (8th passing, 12th rushing)

Notre Dame’s old-school offense ranks No. 1 nationally in my opponent-adjusted rushing metric, and their offensive line is one of the few ranked in the top 20 of both my OL’s in push and pass protection.

Riley Leonard is efficient with his legs in extending passing plays, and he also takes a heavy workload with designed runs. Unfortunately, their top running back, 1,000-yarder Jeremiyah Love, aggravated a knee injury in the third quarter of the Georgia game and was limited in practice. Head coach Marcus Freeman said that while “nobody’s 100% right now, he’ll be good to go.”

The weakest unit in this entire matchup is Notre Dame’s passing offense against Penn State’s top-10 passing defense. Notre Dame is just 128th nationally in creating explosive passing plays with long yards and 92nd in yards per carry. attempt. With Love’s health status in doubt, even more stress is placed on producing this passing attack.

Last year, Manny Diaz coordinated a top-rated defense for Penn State, and in 2024, Tom Allen built another top-five unit. They placed four starters on the All-Big Ten team — lineman Abdul Carter, linebacker Kobe King and defensive backs AJ Harris and Jaylen Reed — and Carter earned unanimous All-America honors.

In the Fiesta Bowl, Penn State Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty was held to a season-low in rushing yards and controlled the line of scrimmage.

Penn State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Penn State Offense (2024): 8th of 70 Power Four (7th passing, 11th rushing)
Notre Dame Defense (2024): 3rd of 70 Power Four (1st passing, 14th rushing)

Penn State’s offense doesn’t get enough attention. In the preseason, quarterback Drew Allar faced a lot of pressure, but has turned in a 24-touchdown, seven-pick, 3,000-yard season; and in the all-encompassing QB rating statistic, this is the best performance by a Penn State quarterback since Trace McSorley in 2016.

The Nittany Lions also have the only duo of 1,000-yard rushers in the nation with Kaytron Allen (1,026) and Nicholas Singleton (1,015).

Their do-it-all tight end, Tyler Warren, won the Mackey Award and caught two touchdown passes in the win over Boise State. They will be challenged by my no. 1-rated pass defense and a Notre Dame defense that swarmed all over the field, limiting the SEC champions to just 10 points.

Xavier Watts is the headliner after earning All-America status again in 2024.

Game prediction

While Notre Dame has been on the playoff and BCS stage in 2012, 2018 and 2020, this will be Penn State’s most important game in at least 30 years. This is just the third national title or semifinal with two non-Southern teams since the creation of the BCS in 1998.

I see two elite defenses, but Penn State’s dynamic offensive weapons and passing attack make the difference.

Penn State 24 | Notre Dame 21