Is franchise tag the best way with QB?

On By Littum

game

Sam Darnold picked the right time to have a career year. But in the coming weeks, that will likely create unique dilemmas for both the 27-year-old quarterback and Minnesota Vikings.

A Pro Bowler for the first time this season, Darnold’s latest opportunity to build the case he has finally blossomed into the franchise QB he was predicted to be when the New York Jets made him the third overall pick in the 2018 draft , coming Monday night — when the Vikings play the Los Angeles Rams in the final wild-card game of the 2024 playoffs. It will mark the first postseason start for Darnold, who set an NFL record among quarterbacks by earning 14 wins in his first season with a team, Minnesota, already the fourth of his seven-year career.

“(I)t’s exciting, man, to be able to step into an environment like we’re going to step into Monday night,” Darnold said Thursday.

“All the guys in that locker room are very excited about it, but we know and we understand that we have to put in the work this week to go out there and earn the excitement that we’re going to feel on Monday night.”

(However, feelings will be somewhat mixed for Darnold, a Southern California and USC product who has also felt the effects of the wildfires ravaging the Los Angeles area.)

But regardless of Monday’s outcome, sooner or later the Vikings and/or Darnold will have to come to a decision about their relationship with his expiring one-year, $10 million contract. He joined the team last March after spending the 2023 campaign as a backup for the San Francisco 49ers and was joined a few weeks later by JJ McCarthy, whom Minnesota made the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft. Darnold drew rave reviews in the offseason before inheriting the starting job by default when McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason.

But good luck finding just about anyone who predicted what followed: Minnesota (14-3) tied for the league’s third-best record, largely propelled by Darnold’s breakthrough. His 4,319 yards and 35 TDs through the air plus a 102.5 passer rating were all career highs by an exponential deviation. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has regularly praised him as a leader, competitor and reliable decision maker.

Soon enough, Darnold and the team will have to assess their relative options after a campaign that could be a one-year wonder that could be a sign that he’s put it all together, or maybe something in between — the right player finds the right one situation to maximize his talents. What’s not in doubt is the way Darnold, who has typically been well-liked by teammates regardless of disappointing results earlier in his career, has been embraced by this locker room and staff.

“Just to see how he’s ultimately been able to maximize everything about his opportunity, our football team loves him for that,” O’Connell said after last month’s loss to the Green Bay Packers in which Darnold threw his career best 377 yards. and was mobbed by teammates and doused with water afterwards in a riotous dressing room.

“I’ve had an absolutely fantastic time training him.”

So what’s next? Darnold and the Vikings are basically looking at three options — and there’s some added variance — before settling on a resolution, though one seems like the obvious choice:

Sam Darnold leaves in free agency

Maybe the Vikings let him go, and maybe that would be his preference. McCarthy was selected with the goal of being the long-term replacement for Kirk Cousins, who left for the Atlanta Falcons last year. The Michigan product showed, albeit briefly, the athleticism and composure during his preseason action that suggests he might just be able to translate his championship resume with the Wolverines to the NFL … at some point.

Meanwhile, with the quarterback crop in the 2025 draft seemingly far more limited than the last one — McCarthy could very well have been the No. 1 pick, had he waited to turn pro this year — Darnold could be highly sought after given the supply and demand dynamics of team sports’ most high-profile position. And while it’s highly unlikely that he would sniff the $60 million-per-year bar set by Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott last September, it’s quite likely that Darnold would significantly surpass the mid-level QB pact his 2018 draft mate and former Carolina Panthers teammate. , Baker Mayfield, took while re-signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024 for three years and $100 million.

If the Vikings don’t want to be in a more expensive neighborhood than that, they could hand the keys to McCarthy, harvest a compensatory third-round pick in 2026—perhaps keep running back Daniel Jones as McCarthy’s insurance plan—and let Darnold leave for what might or maybe not greener pastures, if almost certainly a greener bank account.

Sam Darnold re-signs with Vikings

The depth of Minnesota’s playoff run will undoubtedly greatly affect Darnold’s future with the franchise — especially after his disappointing performance in the Week 18 loss at Detroit cost the Vikes the NFC North title and the No. 1 playoff seed.

“He just kept proving himself,” former New York Giants vice president of player personnel and longtime NFL scout Marc Ross told USA TODAY Sports. “If they run nice and he balls out again, they’ve got to lock this guy in.”

And given how the Mayfield marriage to the Bucs has blossomed, why not? While the appeal of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract is enticing, the prospect of a young passer who can be in town for an extended period of time — without necessarily taking over the salary cap — provided the staff and front office are comfortable he is a reliable commodity over McCarthy, who has never taken a regular-season snap and has hardly had a talented Michigan team for two seasons.

“I think the level of trust that group has in their quarterback and the level of trust the quarterback has in the 10 guys in the huddle is significant,” O’Connell said last month.

Sam Darnold and the franchise tag

It makes a lot of sense on many levels and seems like the only logical decision, at least in the short term – even if it’s just the catalyst in a multi-step sequence.

Franchising Darnold, presumably with the non-exclusive tag, opens up a world of possibilities:

He doesn’t travel far below market price for a Pro Bowl caliber QB1.

At a minimum, Darnold would be guaranteed the biggest payday of his career – something in the neighborhood of $40+ million for the 2025 season, and that’s likely just a starting point.

If the Vikings do not intend to keep him and operate entirely from their own interests, could prompt a bidding war and outside offer sheets — which would return two first-round picks if Darnold signs and Minnesota doesn’t match it.

Minnesota could also leverage Darnold and help him at the same time, the tag also allows GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to simply shop his services to interested suitors — especially ones Darnold might prefer — and still get a nice return on investment, whether players, draft picks or a combination thereof.

As with most players tagged, the mechanism could just be the opening of a longer process that still ends with both parties agreeing to a multi-year extension.

And it could also mean one more season for Darnold in the Twin Cities while McCarthy’s progress is further evaluated.

Another compelling route the tag could theoretically create is a trade market for McCarthy — again, the 2025 draft isn’t expected to be a glut when it comes to quarterbacks — while talks with Darnold could unfold in parallel.

“Worst-case scenario, you’re going to keep (Darnold) one way or another. Franchise him, that’s the word for him. Judge the market and see if they can get a move for him,” Ross said.

“With the lack of quarterbacks in the draft, teams are going to be desperate as can be. I think Sam Darnold will be the dude, you’ll have people falling over themselves to get hold of him. It only works in the Vikings’ favor.”

And should only fuel one of the more fascinating offseason quarterback issues in years.

All NFL news on and off the field. Sign up for USA TODAY’s 4th and Monday newsletters.

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.