Breaking down every aspect of the Giants trade for JJ McCarthy

Could the Giants find the quarterback of the future by revisiting their recent past?

The Giants bypassed JJ McCarthy and instead selected receiver Malik Nabers with the No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after doing extensive homework on the quarterback who guided Michigan to a national championship.

“Malik was our guy,” general manager Joe Schoen said when asked about the choice between those two prospects. “He was the guy we were targeting.”

A year later, the Vikings, who drafted McCarthy with the No. 10 pick, use him as a trade chip if they re-sign Pro Bowler Sam Darnold to a massive extension instead of franchise tagging Darnold.

Would the Giants offer the No. 3 pick in 2025? Should they?

McCarthy was once a polarizing Giants scouting evaluation, but circumstances are changing: The quarterback need is greater now, and the top two options in the 2025 draft class — Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward — may be just out of reach.

The Post asked several NFL sources if the Giants should trade the No. 3 for McCarthy, working under the assumptions that he will be rated higher than Sanders and Ward and that the Vikings will entertain offers.

Why the Giants should do it

If Sanders and Ward are to be the top two picks, the Giants will have to trade multiple picks to the quarterback-needy Titans (No. 1) or Browns (No. 2) to move up. That sounds like a big risk when the early consensus in scouting circles is that neither Sanders nor Ward would have been higher than the fourth-best quarterback in the 2024 class.

To exchange seats from no. 3 to no. 2 to secure a quarterback (Mitch Trubisky) cost the Bears two third-rounders and a fourth-rounder in a trade with the 49ers in 2017.

So the Giants would acquire a better player in McCarthy for less: just the No. 3 instead of no. 3 and more. And McCarthy would only be owed a buyout of $8.3 million total over three seasons (rather than the standard four-year rookie contract).

“I would do it given I had him higher than this year’s quarterbacks — and some teams don’t want one or both (Sanders and Ward) at that level,” one NFC executive said. “When you get JJ, you find ways to keep good players. If you think a quarterback is talented, I don’t care if you draft him at No. 3, no. 6 or no. 9.”

McCarthy would also arrive with the benefit of having spent his rookie year in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-maker system. There was buzz before the injury that McCarthy could win the Week 1 starting job after his impressive preseason debut.

“When JJ got hurt, I thought maybe it was the best thing that ever happened to him,” the executive said, “because he gets a redshirt year under Kevin.”

ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. recently said on “Usportsmanlike” that the Giants should trade the no. 3 for McCarthy.

“If you look at his grade last year compared to the grades this year for quarterbacks,” Kiper said, “he would be the No. 1 guy.”

The value of no. 3 in the 2025 draft may also be less than the value of no. 6 in 2024.

“Not all draft classes are the same,” said one former NFL executive. “Last year’s first round class was particularly strong.”

Why the fighters shouldn’t do it

Since the Giants passed on McCarthy, he has undergone two knee surgeries (torn meniscus) and has not thrown a regular season pass.

The unknown of the injury is a major drawback, but all trades are made pending physicals so the Giants could bring McCarthy in for a medical evaluation before making a final commitment.

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“There’s no way to know for sure about his knee until he’s on the field,” an NFC scout said. “I wouldn’t do it. Would you buy a car if all you saw was a very nice picture on FaceTime and then you were told, ‘It came in a minor fender bender, but it’s good as new now?’ His ability to play with his feet was one of his most important tools.”

The optics would smack of desperation from Schoen if the Giants decided a healthy McCarthy wasn’t worthy of the No. 6 in 2024, but is worthy of no. 3 after a season-ending injury and with fewer years of team control.

“I like McCarthy more as a prospect than Sanders and Ward based on grades,” ESPN NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller said, “but I wouldn’t trade No. 3. I think it’s bad value for something you don’t have How much was he really able to do this year to learn to put him in a position to play next year?

Second guess would go like this: The Giants should have drafted McCarthy over Nabers as insurance for a failing Daniel Jones, given the rookie a taste of action in a lost season, then given McCarthy a No. 1 recipient as Tetairoa McMillan in 2025.

“I wouldn’t make the decision until the end of April,” the NFC boss said. “I have three months to gather more information — and evaluate the top five non-quarterbacks — before I have to pull the trigger.”

What would the Vikings think?

After 20 years of watching the rival Packers groom quarterback successors with four-year plans — Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love — the Vikings might want to copy that plan.

However, it would be enticing for a team coming off a 14-3 season to add a high-impact defensive starter to charge up for a potential Super Bowl run in 2025.

The Vikings could also rebuild their draft capital after two first-round trades in 2024 left them with just one first-rounder and two fifth-rounders in 2025.

But is nearly doubling McCarthy’s salary cap enticing enough? Keeping him as a backup would cost $4.96 million, while trading him would accelerate a dead-cap charge of $9.53 million.

“I’m not doing it for them,” the NFC boss said. “It’s too hard to find your guy. If you think it’s McCarthy, I’ll keep both Darnold and McCarthy as long as possible.”

The irony is that the Vikings, floating with $71.33 million in salary cap space, according to overthecap.com, could re-sign Giants’ fired Daniel Jones as Darnold’s backup — possibly for a copy of Darnold’s one-year, $10 million contract in 2024.

“I don’t think the Vikings can know right now,” Kiper said. “I’ll let it all play out.”

Other works of a trade

Acquiring McCarthy for just a second-round pick, as the Dolphins did in 2019 when the Cardinals moved on from Josh Rosen after one season, is unrealistic, though the NFC scout would consider it a “fallback plan” if it became an option.

But what if the Giants got creative? Could they trade down inside the top 10, stockpile other picks and then trade their later top-10 pick for McCarthy while convincing the Vikings that it’s still better value than when he was selected at No. 10?

“If No. 3 becomes No. 7,” the current executive said, “then you get JJ and maybe two other pieces in the rebuilding puzzle.”

Could the Giants trade the no. 3 and a mid-round pick for McCarthy and the Vikings’ first-round pick (expected to be No. 28 pending the outcome of the playoffs)?

No. 3 is valued at 2,200 points, no. 28 to 660 points and no. 10 (McCarthy) to 1,300 points on the Jimmy Johnson-created trade value chart. So the math works out, but…

“I don’t think Minnesota will trade McCarthy,” Miller said.