Top 3 NBA Bets and Player Props for Nuggets at Mavericks

On January 15, 2025By Littum

Even within a single NBA game, the betting markets are plentiful.

You can bet on traditional markets like the spread or total, but we also have tons of player support markets to look through.

Which bets stand out today as Denver Nuggets is facing Dallas Mavericks?

Let’s dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA betting oddsusing FanDuel Research’s NBA projections to try to find value.

Nuggets at Mavericks Betting Picks

Mavericks under 114.5 points (-104)

Keep an eye out damage report ahead of tonight’s primetime matchup on TNT between Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is expected to have most of its lineup as Nikola Jokic (disease), Jamal Murray (knee), and Aaron Gordon (calf) are all likely to play.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic (calf) for the 10th game in a row. Kyrie Irving (back) has missed the last five but has a chance to return with questionable status after being a fully participates in training.

Of course, Luka (28.1 PPG) and Kyrie (24.3 PPG) lead the Dallas offense as Doncic (33.0%) and Irving (26.7%) lead the team in consumption rates. In Luka’s absence, Dallas has registered just 109.0 points per game. game (PPG) compared to season average of 116.1 PPG (ninth most). Irving and Doncic have both been out for six straight games, and the Mavs are shooting 44.4% during the span compared to 47.9% for the season (sixth-highest).

The bottom line: this offense is far from its seventh best offensive assessment when its stars are out. Irving may return tonight, but Dallas’ effective field goal percentage (eFG%) drops from 57.5% to 54.0% when Luka is outside the field. Its true shooting percentage drops from 60.5% to 57.9% without Doncic.

With Luka and Kyrie making up two of the Mavericks’ three most potent three-point shooters, the Mavs tend to attack the rim more often if one of the contributors is absent. Dallas is already scoring the ninth-most points in the paint per game. game, but the Nuggets are giving up the sixth-lowest shooting distribution around the rim (per Dunks & Threes).

DRatings predicts a total of 113.0 points for the Mavs, pointing to the wonder of Dallas’ team total of 114.5.

Nuggets -3.5 (-110)

To keep this game trending in Denver’s favor, the Nuggets coverage pairs well with Dallas, going under 114.5 points. We went over why the Nuggets’ solid interior defense should hold more weight in this matchup, but what about on the other side of the court?

This is where Denver is deadly and has the fourth best offensive rating. The Mavericks have been meh on the defensive end with the 12th best rating, but they don’t exactly hurt when Doncic and Irving aren’t on the court defending.

The Nugs’ strategy for scoring is pretty cut and dry. While they average the fewest three-point attempts per game, they also log the most points in the paint per game. Dallas gives up the 3rd lowest three-point shooting distribution compared to the 15th highest mark around the rim. Opponents average 49.7 points in the paint per game (sixth-most on defense) and 36.0 three-point shots per game (fourth-lowest for defense) when facing the Mavs’ defense.

This defense plays right into what the Nugs want to do – attack, attack, attack the rim.

We know Dallas’ shooting efficiency takes a big dip when Doncic is out, and we can pair that with Denver touting the third-highest eFG% at 56.4%. This game gears up for road coverage for the Nuggets — especially when they’re 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10, while the Mavericks are 2-8 ATS in the same span.

Nikola Jokic under 28.5 points (-106)

All of our picks will not be in the Nuggets’ favor. Nikola Jokic is averaging 31.2 PPG while carrying the second-shortest NBA MVP odds (+145). However, Jokic has been under 20 points in three of his last five matchups with Dallas.

What has been the difference? Mavericks added Derek Lively in the 2023 NBA Draft. After posting a shaky 117.8 defensive assessment a season ago, the second-year center currently boasts a 109.8 defensive rating heading into the 2024-25 season.

Dallas’ defense may be susceptible to allowing points in the paint, but that’s not because Lively is an underwhelming defender. Assuming he gets the majority of matchups against Jokic, he limits opponents to 50.2% shooting on shots within 10 feet of the bucket in addition to a 52.0% shot distribution allowed in the same area.

Jokic regularly attacks the paint with a 65.0% field goal rate inside 10 feet, on which he shoots 60.6%. Lively has the ability to limit this part of Joker’s game.

On January 12, Jokic was held to 19 points and a 46.2% field goal percentage (55.4% for the season) against the Mavs. Our NBA DFS Projections has Jokic in line for 26.7 points, which suggests below his 28.5-point cap.

If these projections are correct, this implies a 64.7% probability of under 29 points (or -183 odds). That’s excellent value compared to the current -106 under odds (or a 51.5% implied probability).

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The above writer is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The advice given by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.