Trump made the Gaza ceasefire happen

Today, after 15 months of brutal war, Israel and Hamas agreed on an agreement to secure the release of Israeli hostages and the cessation of hostilities in Gaza. The first six weeks of the deal will see Israel withdraw from large parts of the enclave and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including convicted mass murderers, in exchange for Hamas releasing 33 captured Israelis – some alive, some dead. Should all go according to plan, subsequent negotiations will ensure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages and the reconstruction of Gaza in the second and third phases of the agreement.

Given the uncertain nature of the agreement’s phased structure, the matter is far from settled, despite the headlines and handshakes. The agreement also still needs to be ratified by the Israeli cabinet. If that happens, the weeks that follow will be traumatic, as returning Gaza refugees discover if their homes are still standing and the families of Israel’s hostages discover if their loved ones are still alive.

The tentative agreement is nonetheless a victory for the foreign policy teams of Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who worked with regional partners Qatar and Egypt to implement it. The terms largely reflect a proposal that Biden himself made in May 2024, but the incoming president pulled the parties over the finish line. What changed was not Washington’s general orientation toward the conflict. Far from turning up the heat on Israel, Trump telegraphed a further embrace of its positions during his 2024 campaign, repeatedly attacking Biden for limiting arms sales to Israel. But this stance may have helped deliver both sides: Hamas could reasonably assume it would not get a better deal under Trump’s presidency, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-right government likely joined the arrangement to stay in it new manager’s best. grace when he assumed office.

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The Israeli far-right, whose lawmakers hold the margin of power in Netanyahu’s coalition, had previously threatened to collapse the government if a deal was reached without Hamas being completely defeated from Gaza. But amid Trump’s return, the radicals have their eyes on bigger prizes, such as the annexation of the West Bank – which the Palestinians claim for their future state – and are loath to give up such opportunities. For this reason, they are likely to vote against the ceasefire but leave Netanyahu in power so he can enact it.

Put another way, it’s not that Trump had a stick to beat Israel with that Biden didn’t; it’s that his presidency holds the prospect of carrots that Biden would never offer. It was less the president-elect’s pressure than his potential promise that brought the Israeli far-right to the fore. With Trump, everything is a transaction, and for his potential suitors—not just Israel, but also Hamas’ sponsors in Qatar—the Gaza ceasefire is a payoff.

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On the Palestinian side, the deal marks an immediate, if Pyrrhic, triumph for an exterminated Hamas, which will claim it survived the Israeli army and parade some of the released prisoners through the streets of Gaza. But with its leaders killed and its territory destroyed, the group will have little to celebrate or show for its atrocities on October 7. The terrorist organization may continue to impose its will by force, but it is deeply unpopular in its own backyard, according to recent polls.

Meanwhile, with Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar dead, Lebanon’s Hezbollah decimated, Syria’s pro-Iranian regime toppled and Iran’s so-called axis of resistance crushed, Netanyahu has a likely claim to victory if the deal holds. And if it doesn’t, or should Hamas prove insufficiently forthcoming in negotiations for the remaining hostages, he has a new American president in office who can happily guarantee a return to hostilities.

The guns may be mercifully silent for now, but if history is any indication, the long war between Israel and Hamas will continue, in one form or another.