Tennis’ best bets for men’s action on January 17

Today’s Tennis Picks and Predictions for Day 6 of the 2025 Australian Open:

Australian Open 2025 has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The best ATP players in the world are in Melbourne for the first major of the season, and we are not far from the part of the tournament where every match will feature household names. With that in mind, continue reading for my favorite picks for Day 6 of the men’s matches, which will be played on Thursday, January 16th and Friday, January 17th for us in the US. The day will feature guys like Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev in action, so you won’t want to miss these matches. Also check out my two women’s top picks.

I would also strongly suggest that you return to this story before the matches start – or check the selections page regularly. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line moves and add to my map a few hours before the matches begin. That said, I’ll be adding picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles when I’m done. Gill Alexander who does a great job of handicapping tennis at A numbers game (MF from 10 a.m. ET to 12 p.m. ET), also posts his tennis picks on the picks page!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting on!

Record in 2025: 53-41 (+10.03 units)

Tomas Machac vs. Novak Djokovic

I’ve been targeting a Machac play against Djokovic since I saw the draw, and the way I do it is by going over his individual game totals and sprinkling the moneyline. Machac has proven that he is a top-level talent and he really did that with a fantastic display during the Asian swing last year. In Japan, the 24-year-old beat Alexei Popyrin, Tommy Paul and Alex Michelsen before falling in a close battle against Ugo Humbert. Then in Shanghai he beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aleksandar Vukic, Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz before going down and swinging against Jannik Sinner in the final. The Italian won that match 6-4, 7-5. But Machac looked like a top player and held his own. Now he looks to turn around a career year in 2025.

Machac’s biggest weakness right now is his conditioning, but it certainly sounds like he did his best to work on it in the short offseason. Cramps have forced him out of the game several times in recent years and is certainly something to monitor heading into a match with Djokovic. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has made a living by taking the legs of his opponents and then stabbing them when they are at their weakest. But if Machac can get through this one without straining, there’s a real shot he gives Djokovic some trouble.

The Serbian simply hasn’t looked that convincing this season. We saw him lose to Reilly Opelka in Brisbane and he has dropped sets against both Nishesh Basavareddy and Jaime Faria in Melbourne. Well, Machac is a much better player than both of these guys. He’s a better mover, he’s a better server, and he has more explosive groundstrokes. And I’m especially interested in seeing the backhand exchanges between these two. Machac can absolutely bomb shots from that wing, so he won’t be afraid to trade backhands with Djokovic – even though the Serb has one of the best backhands in the history of the sport.

I just don’t see a way for Djokovic to win this one convincingly. I expect the legend to turn it on at some point this season, but he lacks finishing power right now. Getting the ball off his opponents has been a struggle. Well, Machac has the ability to slam the winners.

I also can’t help but think that this is a bit reminiscent of the Joao Fonseca-Andrey Rublev and Jakub Mensik-Casper Ruud matches. Machac gets a look at an elite opponent who happens to be out of shape. It means an opportunity to really break out and get people to notice you – and not just notice how short your shorts are.

Bet: Machac over 16.5 games won (-110 – 1.5 units) & Machac ML (+320 – 0.25 units)

RELATED: Check out my top two women’s bets for Day 6 at the Australian Open!

Jacob Fearnley vs. Alexander Zverev

Zverev absolutely smoked Pedro Martinez in his last match, so I was a long way from taking Over there. However, it still feels like Zverev isn’t quite playing the type of tennis he played last year. Martinez had some openings in that fight, but he put too much pressure on himself. It was hardly a performance where Zverev was on his A-game. Of course, there is nothing wrong with that. He has a fairly easy move, so he can play into form and find the right gear late in the tournament. However, the right opponent can certainly make him sweat a little more than Lucas Pouille and Martinez did. And Fearnley might be that type of opponent.

From a weapons perspective, Zverev’s serve and backhand will be the most dangerous shots on the court. However, Fearnley is a smart player and knows how to get himself into games. So look for the Brit to do everything he can to try and attack the Zverev forehand. And when Zverev throws him short balls, Fearnley is able to put them away. He’s a good counter-puncher, but he’s not a pusher. Fearnley can get aggressive and look really sharp playing aggressive tennis. He chooses his spots very well. Fearnley is also solid when it comes to serving, so he can take hold if Zverev continues to be somewhat passive as a return man.

As I’ve said a bunch, I don’t think Zverev is in danger of actually losing a match until much later in this tournament. But that doesn’t mean he’s going to beat everyone in straight sets. So at even-money odds I try Fearnley to push him to four. Fearnley is possibly a top-50 player on tour and he is priced as if he is lucky to be in the Top 100. I see him being a profitable player to back over the next few months.

Bet: Fearnley to win a set (+100)

Added plays

I can’t guarantee there will be more choices here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every few hours. I will add my extra plays there and then throw them in this story after.

Tennis links

VSiN Tennis Betting Splits

Tennis odds

Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast