After charm offensive, Ukraine prepares for Trump’s return

LONDON — President-elect Donald Trump returns to office on Monday after promising a peace deal to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, which is still raging nearly three years after President Vladimir Putin’s troops crossed into Ukraine expecting a hero’s welcome.

It is hard to say how Trump will try to untangle the twisted knot that is constricting Eastern Europe.

The president-elect has hinted at territorial concessions and reduced aid to Ukraine in the pursuit of peace, but has also suggested the US will expand military aid if Putin refuses to come to the table.

Ukrainian lawmakers and a former official told ABC News they are preparing to once again deal with perhaps the most unpredictable president in living memory — one whom former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in her memoirs was engaged in ” an emotional plane”.

Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and chairman of the body’s foreign affairs committee, nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize in November — an honor the president-elect has long coveted.

“Trump takes some things personally and we should establish human contact with him,” Merezhko told ABC News. “Our fate and survival also depend on Trump – we should be respectful and constructive towards him.”

President Joe Biden “used to say that international relations are interpersonal relations — and that’s true,” Merezhko added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears to have launched his own Trump charm offensive.

Zelenskyy was quick to hail Trump’s “historic landslide victory” in November, echoing the president-elect’s own “peace through strength” slogan.

A meeting with Trump in Paris in December was “good and productive,” Zelenskyy said, with the Ukrainian president praising Trump’s “strong determination” and repeating the mantra of “peace through strength.”

After a December meeting with EU leaders in Brussels, Zelenskyy told reporters: “I think President Trump is a strong man and I would very much like to have him on our side.”

Asked how he would feel when Trump takes office in January, the Ukrainian president replied: “Welcome Donald! What can I say?”

The art of the deal

In 2024, unlike in 2016, foreign leaders seemed prepared for a Trump election victory, their immediate responses tailored to appeal to the president-elect’s transactional worldview.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte presented aid to Ukraine as “a good deal” for Trump and the United States

Macron said he was ready to work towards “peace and prosperity” with his next American counterpart. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he looked forward to working towards “prosperity and freedom” with the incoming administration.

Ukraine will have to make itself attractive to the self-proclaimed master dealmaker, mindful of the transactional foreign policy he pursued in his first term and promised for his second.

Amid the leaks and innuendo, Yehor Cherniev — a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chairman of his country’s delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly — told ABC News that he had seen little in the way of concrete policy on Ukraine’s future.

“We have used this time to deliver our position and our conditions for these new peace talks,” Cherniev said. “We have tried to explain and provide information – not only to officials, but to American citizens and Western people – that this war was not started for more territories of Ukraine or even for all of Ukraine as a country, but for the revision of the world order .”

Without NATO membership or a binding bilateral security agreement with the United States similar to its agreements with Japan, South Korea or Israel, “it will be a failure for the entire Western world,” Cherniev said. “This is our position, and we are trying to deliver this position to officials in the Trump administration.”

Jonathan Eyal of the Royal United Services Institute think tank in Britain told ABC News that there are indications that Kiev may be emboldened, despite Trump’s repeated hints about Ukrainian concessions.

“It seems that Trump seems to have bought into the idea that he can’t end the Ukraine war with an American withdrawal, that this would look very bad for him to start his presidency with — a withdrawal, that would look as humiliating as Biden’s from Kabul in the summer of 2021.”

“So there is this search for something that could be presented as an end to the war, which is also an honorable one and not one that ends with a sold-out — or with the sacrifice of — Ukraine,” he said.

Trump chose retired General Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia. The election, Eyal said, could inspire hope in Kiev.

“Kellogg is on record in a lot of media interviews and articles saying that the war can only be ended from a position of strength, and only if Putin is impressed with America’s willingness to otherwise continue the war,” he said.

“I think there is a level of optimism in Kiev that somehow the administration seems to have accepted that just to get Putin to the negotiating table for a cease-fire, the United States is going to have to appear firm decided to defend Ukrainian interests instead of betraying them,” he added.

Peace through exhaustion

Some in Ukraine may have their own personal political calculations. Zelenskyy, for example, will be under pressure to quickly hold presidential elections scheduled for spring 2024 but delayed by the conflict.

The wartime leader became a global icon for his brute strength in the initial stages of the war, but his domestic popularity has since declined. There is no guarantee that a post-war election will give Zelenskyy another term, especially if his legacy is tainted by territorial concessions to Moscow.

“He obviously doesn’t want to lose,” a former Ukrainian official told ABC News on condition of anonymity. “And for this he has to blame Trump for a quick peace, for a truce, as if Ukraine could win the territories. But everyone knows we can’t, and he also knows he can’t.”

Many Ukrainians are hopeful despite the difficult issue of concessions, the former official said. “When people heard that Trump promised to end the war, they understood that it was not possible to do it in 24 hours, but at least it was a break with the status quo,” they said.

“These calls to stay as long as necessary with Ukraine – that lost all meaning a long time ago,” the former official added of the common refrain offered by allied leaders since February 2022.

“People don’t care anymore about losing territories or how it will happen,” the former official said. “They want suspension, they want a break, they want a ceasefire, any deal.”

“That’s why so many of them were so happy to see Trump come to power, and many still have high hopes that he is strong enough to stop this war.”

There are still many unknowns. Lawmaker Merezhko said his efforts to build ties with Trump’s team had so far not been reciprocated.

“I have the impression that they might be hesitant to reach out to Ukrainian politicians before the deployment,” he said. “Maybe they don’t know yet what Trump’s policy is on Ukraine.”

But like many of his countrymen, Merezhko said he remained hopeful. “I don’t have a feeling that Trump’s presidency will be disastrous for Ukraine,” he explained.

“Of course he will make an attempt to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine, but I doubt it will be successful,” Merezhko continued. “Not because of Trump, but because of Putin, who is absolutely not interested in peace or a ceasefire.”

“Reality – harsh reality – is more powerful than any plans, ideas or wishes of politicians.”