Trade for Jimmy Butler? No, the Phoenix Suns should trade Kevin Durant.

NBA NBAInstead of signing Jimmy Butler, the Suns should try to learn from him instead. As painful as a reset can be, holding on to a star for too long paints an even bleaker picture.

There is a tragic irony to the Phoenix Suns’ belief that Jimmy Butler can solve all their problems.

As Butler does everything he can to break up with the Miami Heat, Phoenix reportedly sees himself as an ideal landing spot, eager to take advantage of another organization that waited too long to move on from its best player – prohibitive financial cost, physical decline and injury risk.

If the Butler-Heat debacle should tell the Suns anything, though, it’s that when it comes to looming contract extensions for aging stars, it’s never been more important to act sooner than later. The old NBA adages that once justified overzealous monetary commitments may no longer apply in a league where some deals are effectively non-negotiable Last summer, Pat Riley had three options: (1) give Butler a two-year, $113 million extension, (2 ) trade him, or (3) do neither. Riley chose door no. 4 – do neither and antagonizing Butler in a public forum—and has since watched the Heat slide back toward mediocrity, with no obvious path back to the Finals.

Hindsight is 20/20, but it’s fair to say Miami probably should have been more aggressive in submitting offers to Butler long before the two reached an inevitable breaking point. the suns –a team that has gone 11-18 since an 8-1 start and is 3-8 against teams with a top-10 net rating— apparently unaware of how close they are to being stuck in a less volatile but equally damaging situation. Instead of looking to add another expensive veteran before the deadline, they should go the other way. They should trade Kevin Durant.

I’m not a “blow it up!” person, but this endgame has been simmering for a while. I know that Durant, still playing at an All-NBA level in his 17th season, is metronomically brilliant. (He’s averaging 27 points per game and is the league’s most accurate midrange shooter.) I understand how rash it sounds to suggest the Suns should part with a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and I’m happy to hear anyone who thinks keeping this 10-seed is the right or only thing to do. Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and KD have only played in 18 games combined this season. Booker, for his part, will presumably, eventually, hopefully look like his razor-sharp All-Star self soon. And this roster has too much talent, shooting, intelligence and experience not to be competitive.

But I also know the Suns are caught up in their owner’s commitment to misunderstanding an NBA ecosystem that doesn’t work the way he thinks it does. The days of giving a maximum contract to three players are over. Depth is king. Financial flexibility, internal development and the draft is what matters. (No franchise currently employs fewer players who were drafted internally — or had their draft rights acquired via trade — than the Suns: Booker, Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro.)

Durant’s public support for Mat Ishbia notwithstandingthere is a wealth of evidence to suggest this team is drifting further and further away from title contention. Phoenix has the highest payroll in NBA history and is currently 19th in net rating. After last year’s first round meltdown against the Minnesota Timberwolves, it is currently expected to have only a 31.9 percent chance to even reach the postseason.

The Suns are 16-6 when Durant and Booker share the floor, but in 594 minutes together — a pretty good sample size — lineups with them both are outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points per 100 possessions. This is far from a harbinger of hope. In fact, it pales in comparison to the rates of other top duos. Throw in Beal — who was recently (and logically) removed from the starting lineup — and the Suns’ The Big Three are minus-31 in 293 minutes.

Hypothetically, even if Butler were traded for Beal—whose own late-stage showdown with the Washington Wizards speaks to how much damage a franchise can do to itself when it waits too long to break up with its franchise player ( the no-trade clause currently haunting the Suns is beyond debilitating) — there’s little reason to believe he’d solve the Suns’ porous transition defense, add more front-end to the roster, or change a shot diagram it is clearly medieval.

Charlotte Hornets only (an ayahuasca enthusiast’s fever dream of what NBA basketball should look like) average fewer points in the paint, and the Suns’ net 3-point differential on the season is minus-18

The stylistic development Mike Budenholzer was hired to initiate has not taken shape. When they execute sets that take advantage of all their spacing, with the help of their big men who know how to pass, you wonder why something like this doesn’t happen all the time:

Their offense obviously isn’t terrible, but it runs through clumsy spells, hampered by unforced gaffes and vague off-ball moves. They also tend to over-distribute, with the second-highest turnover rate in the league on possessions when they pass the ball at least four times, according to Sportradar

Their defense (which ranks seventh worst in the half court) is apathetic. Stack pick-and-rolls are treated like Rubik’s Cube. Basic execution at the point of attack gets sloppy and reinforced when no help comes from the back end (the miscommunication below begins to explain why Dunn replaced Beal in the starting lineup):

There have been important injuries, and Bud’s decision to overhaul his rotation (removing the consumable Jusuf Nurkic hero) was smart. Phoenix can win games on elite shotmaking alone. But the biggest indictment against this team can’t be quantified by statistics. It is aesthetic, possibly even molecular. Phoenix has no basic identity or backbone, nothing to lean on in adversity.

The Suns have limited resources to improve around the margins – only one first-round pick, three second-round picks and three swaps to trade – and how they will meaningfully turn things around is a dilemma that should be treated as a existential crisis in-house.

This leads us to a question that simplifies the heart of this piece: What is the benefit of keeping Durant? In what universe would Phoenix be closer to for a title next year, or the one after that? The man is 36 years old. It’s theoretically possible, but not likely, for him to remain a top-10 player over the life of his next contract. So what’s the point of keeping him? If they re-sign him and paddle their way through the Western Conference as an also-ran for the next few seasons, perhaps winning a playoff series or two, what does the comedown look like?

Phoenix isn’t the only ambitious, highly leveraged franchise that will have to ask itself tough questions under the CBA, which limits movement and punishes big spenders trying to win it all. It’s hard to call this dilemma a trend because each scenario has its own specific concerns both on and off the field. There are emotionally complicated variables characterized by fear and regret. (Nobody wants to trade Steph Curry, LeBron James, Butler, Durant, or any other fan favorite who might still have excellence left in the tank.) But there’s also common sense. With all due respect, almost regardless of how their season ends, if the Suns give Durant a two-year, $120 million extension this summer they are delusional.

“We have a good relationship with Kevin,” Ishbia said back in November. “He’s a great guy, he loves being in Phoenix, we love having him. … We expect Kevin to sign an extension, be with us long term. We hope he finishes his career here in Phoenix. … Kevin wants to be here, we want Kevin to be here. There’s never been a grumble about anything else.”

That sounded great a few months ago, but it doesn’t change the fact that these suns were still assembled, at extreme risk, in a microwave oven. Undercooked, overprocessed. They are a monument to the nervous turmoil of an extremely wealthy 45-year-old man. However, today’s NBA does not reward impatience. Just look around. From Boston to Oklahoma City to Cleveland to Memphis to Houston to Orlando to Denver. Good things come to those who wait, care about continuity and own a calendar.

Regardless of what Ishbia says, keeping KD is a risk in several ways. What happens if he decides he doesn’t want to finish his career at a team that can’t compete at the highest level? He left the Golden State Warriors as a free agent and demanded a trade from the Brooklyn Nets. It wouldn’t shock the world if KD wanted another change of scenery. He will make $54.7 million next season and can become an unrestricted free agent the following year. Put him on the market now and see what you can get back.

Rockets general manager Rafael Stone has said he’s not interested in making any big swings before the season endsbut when push comes to shove, adding Durant to a package that wouldn’t shorten their encouraging runway to championship contention would make sense. No, he’s not on the same timeline as Houston’s rising core — and it’s too soon for the Suns to part with Booker, who is 28, extremely good and still has three years left on his contract — but KD is the rare offensive talent that would make the Rockets (currently second in the West) a legitimate threat to win it all without ruining the long-term development of anyone else on that roster.

Durant still has tremendous trade value for any team interested in winning, but thanks to the second seed, Phoenix can’t take back more money than it gives out or rack up more contracts, ruining so many opportunities.

For the long-term health of Phoenix’s organization, however, it is should be willing to prioritize retrieval of his own draft picks. It’s a little complicated, but basically the Rockets have trade rights this season (which they will likely exercise), plus Phoenix’s unprotected first in 2027 and a protected first in 2029. If the Suns can get all that back, plus another unprotected first – rounder from the Rockets, Fred VanVleet and Jeff Green (to meet salary requirements), they absolutely should. If Houston doesn’t bite and chooses to wait and see how its young core does in the playoffs before making a run at someone like De’Aaron Fox (or Booker) this summer, Phoenix should pick up the phone and see how the other 28 teams feel to add KD.

Overall, these Suns easily have the worst ROI in basketball history. Replenishment should be their word of the day, every day, until they have a future that is not shrouded in fear. Would the Thunder have any interest in practically guaranteeing themselves at least one NBA title with a full-circle kumbaya? Could the Warriors be tempted to end their dynastic run with one last hurray? Could the Spurs have their cake and eat it too? Do the Magic see themselves as a team ready to win it all right now—seriously, assuming Franz Wagner returns this season—and are they willing to part with multiple picks and someone like Anthony Black to do it?

The Suns should be proactive here. The alternative is where they are at the moment, encased in a pressured work environment that sees every win as a relief and every loss as a step towards more disruption. That’s the world these players and coaches live in, under the thumb of an owner whose dogged obsession with the present has fostered a claustrophobic, avoidable sense of desperation.

“We’re trying to win” Ishbia said in Novemberwith the subtlety of a tractor. But the words that followed may be a glimmer of hope for long-suffering fans who understand why doubling down on a strategy this hopeless on Ishbia’s 50th birthday could leave the Suns more irrelevant than ever: “We’re certainly not , where we are. in second place and the luxury tax, trying to finish ninth in the West. That’s not what we’re trying to do.”

If Ishbia believes what he says, then maybe the Suns should try something else.