Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter prediction, odds, picks for UFC 311

UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 kicks off the preliminaries with a fight between Tagir Ulanbekov and Clayton Carpenter in the flyweight division. Ulanbekov enters this bout with back-to-back submission wins, while Carpenter remains undefeated, winning each of his two bouts inside the octagon. With that said, ctry our UFC odds series for our Ulanbekov-Carpenter prediction and picks.

Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2) missed weight in his only scheduled fight in 2024 against Joshua Van, weighing in at 129.5 lbs, which was 3.5 lbs over the 126 pound limit. This will be his first fight in 15 months and he will look to extend his winning streak to three straight when he takes on undefeated prospect Clayton Carpenter.

Clayton Carpenter (8-0) was one of the top prospects for the 2022 season of the Contender Series and he did not disappoint as he and Edgar Chairez stole the show. Now 8-0 with 2 wins in the UFC, Carpenter will look to kick off the new year with the biggest win of his career when he takes on Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 311 this weekend.

Here is UFC 311 oddscourtesy of DraftKings.

UFC 311 Odds: Tagir Ulanbekov-Clayton Carpenter Odds

Tagir Ulanbekov: -325

Clayton Carpenter: +260

Over 2.5 rounds: -260

Under 2.5 rounds: +195

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Why Tagir Ulanbekov Will win

• Last Match: (W) Cody Durden – SUB R2
• Last 5: 4-1
• Endings: 9 (9 SUB)

Tagir Ulanbekov is poised to secure a victory over Clayton Carpenter at UFC 311 this weekend. Ulanbekov’s experience advantage is significant, with a 15-2 professional record compared to Carpenter’s 8-0. The Russian fighter has faced tougher competition in the UFC, including a recent submission victory over Cody Durden at UFC 296. Ulanbekov’s grappling prowess, evidenced by his nine submission wins, could prove decisive against the less experienced Carpenter .

While Carpenter is undefeated and shows promise, he has yet to face an opponent of Ulanbekov’s caliber. Combining strong wrestling with improved striking, Ulanbekov’s well-rounded skill set should allow him to control the pace and positioning of the fight. His ability to finish matches, especially by submission, gives him multiple paths to victory. Carpenter’s relative inexperience at the highest level could be exposed against a seasoned competitor like Ulanbekov, who has proven he is capable of performing under the UFC’s bright lights.

Why Clayton Carpenter Will win

• Last match: (W) Lucas Rocha – SUB R2
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finish: 6 (2 KO/TKO/4 SUB)

Despite being the underdog, Clayton Carpenter is poised to upset Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 311 this weekend. Carpenter’s perfect 8-0 record, including two impressive UFC victories, shows his ability to perform at the highest level. His well-rounded skill set, combining powerful hitting with a suffocating court game, makes him a threat in all areas. Carpenter’s recent submission win over Lucas Rocha demonstrates his skill set and growing confidence in the Octagon.

While Ulanbekov is a skilled grappler, Carpenter’s wrestling background and submission defense should neutralize that advantage. Carpenter’s superior punching accuracy (51% vs. Ulanbekov’s 46%) and higher takedown average (2.47 per 15 minutes vs. Ulanbekov’s 1.79) suggest he can control the tempo and positioning of the fight. At 28, Carpenter is entering his prime and has shown consistent improvement throughout his career. His youth, athleticism and drive make him a formidable challenge for the more experienced Ulanbekov.

Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Clayton Carpenter Prediction & Pick

To kick off the first PPV of the year, we have a scrap in the flyweight division between Tagir Ulanbekov and Clayton Carpenter. This will be Ulanbekov’s first fight since December 2023 after multiple cancellations have kept him out of action in 2024. As for Carpenter, this will be just his third fight of his UFC career after he had his win against Edgar Chairez written off in the Contender Series in 2022.

Ulanbekov has faced the who’s who of the flyweight division, while this is a monumental step up in competition for Carpenter, who will be taking on his first ranked contest in his short undefeated career. Both Ulanbekov and Carpenter are great grapplers with 13 combined submissions between the two of them, which should make for some big scrambles on the mat. However, it looks like Ulanbekov will be a step above Carpenter in the fight in this matchup, but Carpenter will have the speed and power advantages on the feet. Ultimately, it will boil down to who can take full advantage of them in this fight, and considering how Ulanbekov is more battle-tested in his UFC career, he should be able to avoid Carpenter’s power shots on the feet and then drag him to the mat where he will control him for the majority of the fight en route to a decision victory.

Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Clayton Carpenter Prediction and Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov (-325), over 2.5 rounds (-260)