ATP Australian Open best bets including Draper vs Alcaraz

ATP Australian Open 1/8 final

Davidovich Fokina – Paul: 19.01.2025 05:00 CEST
H2H: 0-3

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won four of his last five matches. In Melbourne, Alejandro won the opening set against Shang 7-6. In the second set, Shang withdrew due to an injury. In the second round, Alejandro defeated Auger-Aliassime after trailing 0-2. After spending over four hours on the field, Davidovich Fokina turned the game around. Yesterday against Mensik in the third round of the tournament, Alejandro was behind 0-2 against Mensik, but successfully turned the game around once again. Last year in Melbourne, Alejandro reached the second round and lost to Nuno Borges in straight sets.

Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Adelaide, Paul reached the semi-finals, losing to Auger-Aliassime in three close sets. Tommy won the opening round match against O’Connell in five close sets in Melbourne. Paul was a better player under pressure in the deciding fifth set and therefore won the match. In the second round, Tommy defeated Nishikori after losing the first set 6–7. Kei was tired and won only four games in three sets after winning the first. Yesterday, in the third round, Paul Carballes defeated Baena in straight sets. Last year in Melbourne, Tommy reached the third round and lost to Kecmanovic in five sets.

Best bet

According to the bookies, Paul is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Alejandro has spent much more time on the court than Paul so far in the tournament. We expect Paul to be more rested and a better player tomorrow.

Having said that, Paul winning in straight sets is a value bet.

Value bet/ best odds: Tommy Paul to win 3-0 @2.63 @bet365

Draper – Alcaraz: 19.01.2025 05:30 CEST
H2H: 1-2

Jack Draper has won four of his last five matches. In the opening round of the Australian Open, Draper defeated Navone in five sets after spending four hours on court. Draper spent over four hours on court in the second round against Kokkinakis and again won in five close sets. In the third round against Vukic, Draper again won in five sets. He trailed 1-2 but won consecutive tiebreaks to turn the match. Last year in Australia, Draper reached the second round and lost to Tommy Paul in four close sets.

Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. Here in Melbourne, Carlos dominated against Shevchenko in the opening round, winning in easy straight sets. As we predicted, Carlos destroyed Nishioka in straight sets in the second round. Alcaraz had a great 2024 season, winning two Grand Slam titles. Yesterday, in the third round, Alcaraz defeated Borges in four comfortable sets, as we predicted. Last year in Melbourne, Carlos reached the quarterfinals and lost to Zverev in four sets. Alcaraz never had any success in Australia. Reaching the quarter-finals is also his best result at the Australian Open.

Best bet

According to the bookmakers, Alcaraz is the heavy favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Jack spent over 16 hours on the field in the first three games and we believe he has no fuel left in the tank. Alcaraz will dominate from the start and win easily.

Having said that, Alcaraz covering the game’s handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -7.5 bet @2.00 @bet365

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